Zonda’s New Home Pending Sales Index for June 2022 finds the housing market cooling to levels seen in February 2020. The New Home PSI posted a reading of 125.5 for June, down 7.5% YOY and 27.9% below cycle highs. It measures new home orders and average sales rate per community. New home sales dropped month-over-month by 0.2%, the fifth straight month of declines. The new home orders component fell 10.5% YOY, while the average sales rate per community component fell 8.2% YOY. “Home sellers and home buyers are adjusting to a new reality in the housing market,” said Ali Wolf, Zonda’s chief economist. “Home sellers are quickly understanding the days of frenzied demand are behind us and it takes an…
Mortgage rates rose from an average of 5.51% to 5.54% last week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.54%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.78%. “The housing market remains sluggish as mortgage rates inch up for a second consecutive week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Consumer concerns about rising rates, inflation, and a potential recession are manifesting in softening demand. As a result of these factors, we expect house price appreciation to moderate noticeably.” Mortgage loan applications are tumbling as buyers are priced out by the combination of increasing interest rates and sky-high home prices. But the AEI Housing Center recently…
Mortgage rates drifted up again last week after plummeting the week prior, rising from an average 5.30% to 5.51%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.51%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.88%. “Mortgage rates are volatile as economic growth slows due to fiscal and monetary drags,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “With rates the highest in over a decade, home prices at escalated levels, and inflation continuing to impact consumers, affordability remains the main obstacle to homeownership for many Americans.” Affordability is at record lows across the country. The average monthly mortgage payment is up 6.2% month-over-month and 51% year-over-year. Low…
Annual single-family home prices rose by 19.4% in Q2 2022. This is down from Q1’s upwardly revised 20.5% but still close to a record high, according to Fannie Mae’s latest Home Price Index. On a quarterly basis, home prices increased by 4.3% between Q1 and Q2. “Home prices maintained a near-historic pace of appreciation in the second quarter, as low levels of housing inventory continued to support price growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “At the end of 2021 and extending into 2022, we believe many homebuyers pulled forward their purchase plans to avoid expected increases in mortgage rates, contributing to demand for homes and strong price appreciation. Given the sharp rise in mortgage…
Mortgage loan application volume fell by 1.7% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 1.7%. The adjusted purchase index dropped 4%, while the unadjusted purchase index increased by 14% and was 18% lower YOY. The refinance index rose by 2% and made up 30.8% of total applications, down 80% from the same time last year. The overall refinance index was 5% lower than the average level reported in June, and refinances are expected to stay low. ARM activity rose to 9.6% of total applications. “Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged, but applications declined for the second straight week. Purchase applications for both conventional and…
Inflation jumped by 9.1% YOY in June, more than analysts predicted and the largest gain since 1981, according to data released by the Labor Department today. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation rising 1.3% month-over-month, its largest jump since 2005. Predictions ahead of the data’s release forecast a 1.1% rise from May and an 8.8% increase YOY. This is the fourth consecutive month that analyst predictions fell short. Another month of skyrocketing inflation suggests that officials will be forced to continue aggressively raising interest rates. But rate hikes have stoked fears of a recession. Strategists at Goldman Sachs recently upgraded their recession probability to 30% from 15%. “We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” Goldman Sachs Chief…
Mortgage rates tanked last week, dropping from an average 5.70% to 5.30%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.90%. “Over the last two weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped by half a percent, as concerns about a potential recession continue to rise,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While the drop provides minor relief to buyers, the housing market will continue to normalize if home price growth materially slows due to the combination of low housing affordability and an expected economic slowdown.” Potential buyers are backing away from the market due to the soaring cost of purchasing…
Home price growth saw its largest single-month slowdown since 2006 in May as inventory begins to correct, according to Black Knight’s May Mortgage Monitor Report. May was the second straight month of prices cooling across the country. Home price growth slowed in 97 of the U.S.’s 100 largest housing markets. The national appreciation rate fell by more than a whole point YOY. “[W]hile any talk of home values and 2006 might set off alarm bells for some, the truth is that price gains would need to see deceleration at this rate for more than 12 months just to get us back to a ‘normal’ 3-5% annual growth rate,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske. “That said, the…
Most consumers think the economy is on the “wrong track,” growing frustrated as they struggle against inflation and a slowing economy. Fannie Mae’s most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) fell 3.4 points in June to its lowest reading in ten years, while a survey-high 81% of consumers reported they believe the economy is on “the wrong track.” The full index is down 14.9 points YOY. Four of its six components fell from the month prior. More Americans reported they are worried about losing their jobs in the next twelve months (+5%) and fewer reported their income has significantly increased in the past year (-1%.) For the first time in almost seven years, a plurality of respondents said they would…
Mortgage loan application volume fell by 5.4% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 5.4%. The adjusted purchase index dropped 4%, while the unadjusted purchase index increased by 7% and was 17% lower YOY. The refinance index fell by 8% and made up 29.6% of total applications, down 78% from the same time last year. ARM activity fell to 9.5% of total applications. “Mortgage rates decreased for the second week in a row, as growing concerns over an economic slowdown and increased recessionary risks kept Treasury yields lower. Mortgage rates have increased sharply thus far in 2022 but have fallen 24 basis points…
