AEI Housing Center Releases Positive Predictions For Home Price Appreciation

By SCOTT KIMBLER Home price appreciation will continue to climb throughout 2024, according to the latest analysis by leaders at AEI Housing Center. Tobias Peter, co-director and senior fellow at AEI, spoke during a presentation earlier this month and said even though purchase volume is down, data suggests home price appreciation will rise over the course of this year. Peter said because buyers are well qualified and there is continued competition due to the strong sellers’ market, HPA is expected to be around 5% by December. Those numbers can vary. A bullish projection shows an increase of between 6% and 8%. A bearish projection ranges from 0% to -2%. Data from February showed month-over-month HPA was up 1.1%, a reversal…

House Price Appreciation Up Annually, Trending Down Monthly

Annual home price appreciation continued its upward trend in January, though signs of moderation are shining through on a monthly basis. Prices were up 6% YOY, an increase from December’s 5.6% gain and the fastest annual rate since 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index.  San Diego once again reported the highest annual gains at 11.2%, followed by Los Angeles with an 8.6% increase. Portland showed a 0.9% increase, the smallest YOY growth. This is the second straight month of price growth in every city analyzed, putting U.S. home prices at a new all-time high, breaking every record set last year. “While there is a large disparity between leaders such as San Diego versus laggards…

Home Prices Surged In Q3

Home prices surged again in the third quarter as home shoppers butted heads because of low inventory. Annual single-family home price growth increased annually and quarterly from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, according to Fannie Mae’s Home Price Index. Price growth rose 2% quarter-over-quarter and was up 5.3% YOY, showing home price appreciation remains resilient amid stock shortages. The index measures the average quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the United States, excluding condos. “Slightly slowing house price growth may reflect in part the affordability impact of the higher mortgage rate environment – even though prices were still solidly higher this past quarter than a year earlier,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. …

Prices Trend Up, With New England Seeing A Spike

As home prices continue to rise across the country, New England is a hot spot for year-over-year gains. CoreLogic’s national Home Price Index increased for the 139th consecutive month in August, up 3.7% YOY, the biggest gain since February 2023. Prices are now 42% higher than in March of 2020, when the pandemic began. Massachusetts’ top-dollar homes reflect a growing interest in the Northeast. New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont, and Rhode Island sported the largest YOY price gains in August. Strong jobs markets and relative affordability make the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic attractive to cost-sensitive buyers, pulling them away from pricey areas that were hot in the last few years. Not every market saw an appreciation jump. In eight states, prices fell…

Applications Turn Tail Again

Mortgage applications fell last week, stepping back after a spike as rates reached 20-year highs. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – declined by 1.3%, down from the week prior’s 5.4% increase. Adjusted purchase applications sank by 2%, while the unadjusted index fell by 2% from the week before and was 27% lower YOY. Declines can be attributed to the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed loan increasing 10 bps to 7.41%, the highest rate since December 2000. Meanwhile, the jumbo rate hit its highest point ever in MBA’s jumbo series data at 7.34%, which dates to 2011.  “Based on the FOMC’s most recent projections,…

Home Prices Heat Up

Data released today shows annual home price gains were stagnant in June but continue heating up in the short term, with month-over-month prices rising. Year-over-year, prices remained unchanged after slipping 0.4% the prior month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index. Prices were up 0.9% month-over-month before seasonal adjustment and 0.7% after. This is the fifth consecutive month of increases. Home prices are now at all-time highs in half the cities analyzed, and the National Composite sits just 0.2% below its all-time high from last year. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, noted that regional differences remain “striking.” The West Coast hubs that saw a huge migration during the pandemic performed the worst (-5.9%).…

Home Prices Break Record In June

Home price appreciation is back to breaking records after a period of declines, pushing homeownership further out of reach for many Americans. Black Knight’s Home Price Index hit an all-time high in June for both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted levels, up 0.67% from May and 0.8% YOY. This is a serious comeback after 14 straight months of annual declines. Basically every major American metro saw month-over-month growth explode as demand continues to outstrip supply. In 30 of the country’s 50 largest markets prices have hit new highs. “We’ve been noting for some months that the recent rate of home price gains would have a lagging, but significant, impact on the annual rate of appreciation. Well, June marked that inflection point……

Home Prices Reverse Course As Inventory Tightens Further

Competition has returned full force to the housing market as demand for limited inventory sends home prices soaring. Black Knight’s latest Home Price Index hit a new record in May, with prices up 0.7% month-over-month and 8.9% YOY. This is the fifth consecutive month of gains. Many markets experienced home price declines in the last few months, but that trend seems to be reversing. Of the 50 largest markets analyzed by Black Knight, 27 hit their prior price peaks or set new records this spring. “There is no doubt that the housing market has reignited from a home price perspective,” said Andy Walden, Black Knight Vice President of Enterprise Research. “The reheating is widespread, with more than half of the…

Single-Family Prices Up Again In April

Single-family home prices increased again in April as low inventory keeps a nationwide correction at bay. Prices were up 2% YOY, the 135th straight month of growth, according to CoreLogic’s Home Price Index. However, it’s the sixth straight month of single-digit gains, a boon for affordability. Since peaking in spring 2022 at nearly 20% growth, prices have moderated. Month-over-month, prices rose by 1.2%. The ongoing stock shortage could keep prices up even as demand dwindles, possibly for the next twelve months. CoreLogic expects price growth to tick down further in 2023 before changing course at year-end. “While mortgage rate volatility continues to cause buyer hesitation, the lack of for-sale homes is putting firm pressure on prices this spring, leading to…

Prices Climb In Q1 As Demand For Budget-Friendly Homes Heats Up

Home sale prices went up last quarter due to high competition in budget-friendly markets. The National Association of Realtors’ latest quarterly report found that single-family existing-home sales prices increased in 152 of 221 metros — about 70% — in Q1 2023.  The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,859, up 33% YOY. The divide in demand between affordable and expensive markets is the main factor in these numbers. High-end markets with the most expensive homes are seeing declines, while cheaper areas are seeing intense competition for the few affordable homes for sale, pushing prices up. “Generally speaking, home prices are lower in expensive markets and higher in affordable markets, implying greater…