Home Prices Heat Up

Data released today shows annual home price gains were stagnant in June but continue heating up in the short term, with month-over-month prices rising. Year-over-year, prices remained unchanged after slipping 0.4% the prior month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index. Prices were up 0.9% month-over-month before seasonal adjustment and 0.7% after. This is the fifth consecutive month of increases. Home prices are now at all-time highs in half the cities analyzed, and the National Composite sits just 0.2% below its all-time high from last year. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, noted that regional differences remain “striking.” The West Coast hubs that saw a huge migration during the pandemic performed the worst (-5.9%).…

Home Prices Break Record In June

Home price appreciation is back to breaking records after a period of declines, pushing homeownership further out of reach for many Americans. Black Knight’s Home Price Index hit an all-time high in June for both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted levels, up 0.67% from May and 0.8% YOY. This is a serious comeback after 14 straight months of annual declines. Basically every major American metro saw month-over-month growth explode as demand continues to outstrip supply. In 30 of the country’s 50 largest markets prices have hit new highs. “We’ve been noting for some months that the recent rate of home price gains would have a lagging, but significant, impact on the annual rate of appreciation. Well, June marked that inflection point……

Home Prices Reverse Course As Inventory Tightens Further

Competition has returned full force to the housing market as demand for limited inventory sends home prices soaring. Black Knight’s latest Home Price Index hit a new record in May, with prices up 0.7% month-over-month and 8.9% YOY. This is the fifth consecutive month of gains. Many markets experienced home price declines in the last few months, but that trend seems to be reversing. Of the 50 largest markets analyzed by Black Knight, 27 hit their prior price peaks or set new records this spring. “There is no doubt that the housing market has reignited from a home price perspective,” said Andy Walden, Black Knight Vice President of Enterprise Research. “The reheating is widespread, with more than half of the…

Single-Family Prices Up Again In April

Single-family home prices increased again in April as low inventory keeps a nationwide correction at bay. Prices were up 2% YOY, the 135th straight month of growth, according to CoreLogic’s Home Price Index. However, it’s the sixth straight month of single-digit gains, a boon for affordability. Since peaking in spring 2022 at nearly 20% growth, prices have moderated. Month-over-month, prices rose by 1.2%. The ongoing stock shortage could keep prices up even as demand dwindles, possibly for the next twelve months. CoreLogic expects price growth to tick down further in 2023 before changing course at year-end. “While mortgage rate volatility continues to cause buyer hesitation, the lack of for-sale homes is putting firm pressure on prices this spring, leading to…

Prices Climb In Q1 As Demand For Budget-Friendly Homes Heats Up

Home sale prices went up last quarter due to high competition in budget-friendly markets. The National Association of Realtors’ latest quarterly report found that single-family existing-home sales prices increased in 152 of 221 metros — about 70% — in Q1 2023.  The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,859, up 33% YOY. The divide in demand between affordable and expensive markets is the main factor in these numbers. High-end markets with the most expensive homes are seeing declines, while cheaper areas are seeing intense competition for the few affordable homes for sale, pushing prices up. “Generally speaking, home prices are lower in expensive markets and higher in affordable markets, implying greater…

Price Growth Bucks Downward Trend, Rises Across The Nation

Home prices appear to have bucked their downward trend, rising almost everywhere in the U.S. in March. Black Knight’s latest Mortgage Monitor report found that home prices rose last month on both non-adjusted (+1.38%) and seasonally adjusted (+0.45%) bases. This is the third consecutive month of increases recorded by Black Knight, with 92% of markets seeing prices increase.  “[J]ust five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180,” said Black Knight Vice President of Enterprise Research Andy Walden. Other than Western and pandemic boomtown markets, 40% have seen prices return to peak levels, with only Austin (-0.7%), Salt…

Housing Market Slowdown Continues

Net new listings and contract volume have officially declined for twelve straight months, according to new data from HouseCanary. HouseCanary’s latest Market Pulse report, which covers 22 listing-derived metrics and compares data between April 2022 and April 2023, shows market activity was significantly hindered in the first month of Q2. “As we enter May 2023, the real estate market continues to experience uncertainty, with the purchasing market slowdown being one of the key trends observed for over a year now,” Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, said. Contract and net new listing volume both fell annually, down 17.8% and 39.8%, respectively. Listings were hit particularly hard by a nearly 45% YOY increase in removals. Home sellers who…

AEI Predicts Housing Market Will Continue to Struggle Through 2023

By Scott Kimbler Watch for housing sales in 2023 to follow the same pattern from a decade ago. That’s the prediction of Ed Pinto, Director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center, during a recent data review. He and Assistant Director Tobias Peter used information from the final months of 2022 and into the first quarter of 2023 to preview the remainder of 2023 and perhaps even into 2024, given current market trends. Pinto pointed out that Agency Purchase Volume for the final month of 2022 was down 45 percent from the same month in 2021 and 51 percent down from the same month in 2020. “Based on Optimal Blue date,” Pinto said. “We expect purchase volume in early 2023…

Existing Home Sales Exploded In February

Existing-home sales exploded in February, breaking a full-year downward streak thanks to retreating interest rates. Sales increased by 14.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million from 4.02 million the month prior, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. It’s the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. All four major regions saw sales increase month-over-month and decrease year-over-year. At the same time, the median price for an existing home slid YOY alongside rates, down 0.2% to $363,000. This is the first YOY decline in 131 consecutive months, the longest streak on record. “Conscious of changing mortgage rates, homebuyers are taking advantage of any rate declines. Moreover, we’re seeing stronger sales gains in areas…

YOY Home Prices Fall For The First Time In A Decade

Home prices have fallen for the first time since 2012 as affordability concerns decimate buyer demand. The median U.S. home sale price dipped by 1.2% to $386,721, the first annual decline in a decade, Redfin reported. “Buyers are struggling because higher interest rates have increased the cost of homeownership, and sellers are struggling because they’re still adjusting to the fact that their home won’t sell for what their neighbors’ did a year ago,” said Andrew Vallejo, a Redfin real estate agent. Prices are cooling, but after soaring to record heights after the pandemic, they’re still historically high. The cities with the biggest declines are pandemic hotspots seeing corrections after their boom moment. Two such cities, San Jose and Austin, saw…