Bleak Outlook For Housing Prices Predicted For All Of 2023

By SCOTT KIMBLER The director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute painted a bleak picture for the rest of this year and all of 2023 earlier this month during a presentation and forecasting of home prices in the United States. AEI Senior Fellow and Director of the AEI Housing Center Edward Pinto pointed to some major factors colliding at once that will be harming market prices, appreciation of owned homes, and the consumer ability to buy or upgrade a home at all. Those factors are inflation, which is at a 40-year-high, the Fed Fund rate continuously being raised to cool inflation, a housing shortage, and employment repercussions of the pandemic. First, the volume of homes being…

Inflation, Interest Rates Cited As Top Issues For Residential And Commercial Real Estate

By KIMBERLEY HAAS The global chair of The Counselors of Real Estate says inflation and interest rates are this year’s leading concerns of his 1,000-member organization. At the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference at The Westin Buckhead in Atlanta, GA, William McCarthy said everyone they talk to wants to know about inflation and interest rates. The Counselors of Real Estate is an international consortium of commercial property advisors which has posted a top ten list of issues affecting real estate for 11 years. “Inflation dictates interest rates. Interest rates dictate inflation,” McCarthy said. McCarthy told the crowd they have some questions about the current interest rate narrative. “Interest rates are supposed to go up a little bit more, level,…

EVP: Rocket’s “Inflation Buster” Result Of Listening To Clients’ Needs

By KIMBERLEY HAAS As interest rates climb towards seven percent and loan applications fall to their slowest pace since 1997, leaders at Rocket Mortgage say they have a solution and it has a name: Inflation Buster. Rocket’s new Inflation Buster program was announced on Sept. 16. It gives homebuyers a reprieve by reducing their monthly mortgage payment by one percentage point for the first year of their loan, according to a press release. Bill Banfield, EVP of Capital Markets at Rocket Mortgage, sat down for an interview with The Mortgage Note to explain how the program is the result of leaders at the company listening to the needs of their clients. “You, me, everybody is talking about inflation. You can’t…

Record-High Down Payments See Moderation

Buyers are paying record-high down payments thanks to the combination of soaring prices and high competition, but they may see a reprieve soon, according to new data from Redfin. The typical U.S. mortgage borrower in July put down $62,500, up 13.6% YOY and nearly twice the growth in home sales prices. It’s also nearly double the median $32,917 down payment from July 2019, before the pandemic. Down payments have fallen slightly since peaking at $66,000 in May and June, due in part to the cooling market. Just under 59% of buyers who used a mortgage had a 10%-plus down payment, up from 57.5% a year ago but down from a peak of 60.5% in May. “Homebuyers don’t need to make…

Rates Exceed 6%, Applications Tumble

Mortgage loan application volume fell last week as mortgage rates topped 6% for the first time since 2008, nearly doubling year over year. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows that the adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 1.2%. The adjusted purchase index rose 0.2%, while the unadjusted purchase index dropped 12% and was 29% lower YOY. The refinance index dropped by 4% and was 83% lower than the same time last year. Refis made up 30.2% of total applications. “Higher mortgage rates have pushed refinance activity down more than 80 percent from last year and have contributed to more homebuyers staying on the sidelines. Government loans, which tend to be favored by…

Inflation Hits Builders As America Faces Housing Crisis

By KIMBERLEY HAAS The executive director of the New Hampshire Home Builders Association says the biggest problem they are currently facing is unstable prices due to inflation. In a recent interview with The Mortgage Note, Matt Mayberry explained that contractors are trying to stay within their budgets on projects but it is difficult because prices are volatile due to inflation and supply chain issues. It’s also difficult to bid on upcoming work. “How do we estimate jobs correctly? What are the metrics we use to do this?” Mayberry said. One thing that has improved, Mayberry said, is the waiting time for projects to be completed. During the pandemic, many projects were pushed out to a year and a half for…

Housing Costs Pushing Inflation Up In Sunbelt Migration Hotspots

Inflation is soaring in America’s most popular migration locations, in part because of their boost of new residents and high home price appreciation, Redfin reported. Phoenix, Atlanta, Tampa, and Miami saw double-digit inflation in Q2 2022. They are also all high migration areas that are popular among Redfin’s users. Inflation in Phoenix was up 11.3% YOY and is the third most popular city for Redfin.com users looking to move to a new city. Atlanta was the twelfth most popular and had an inflation rate of 10.9%. Next came Tampa, the second most popular destination on Redfin, with the third highest inflation rate at 10.6%, followed by Miami, the single most popular destination, with the fourth highest inflation at 10% flat.…

Brady: Housing Inflation Crushing American Dream

By KIMBERLEY HAAS A U.S. Congressman serving the 8th district of Texas says housing inflation is crushing the American dream for families. During a hearing, Ways and Means Republican Leader Rep. Kevin Brady said American families and workers are finding that President Joe Biden’s economy is “cruel.” “Working women haven’t had it this bad in decades. The dangerous baby formula shortage, rising crime, and inflation, and now housing they can barely afford to live in. Just as with crushing gas prices, Democrats in Washington are blaming everyone under the sun for the cruel rise in housing costs: builders, local investors and developers who make the construction of new homes and neighborhoods a reality,” Brady said. He added, “Republicans have held…

Inflation Up 9.1% YOY, Largest Gain Since 1981

Inflation jumped by 9.1% YOY in June, more than analysts predicted and the largest gain since 1981, according to data released by the Labor Department today. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation rising 1.3% month-over-month, its largest jump since 2005. Predictions ahead of the data’s release forecast a 1.1% rise from May and an 8.8% increase YOY. This is the fourth consecutive month that analyst predictions fell short. Another month of skyrocketing inflation suggests that officials will be forced to continue aggressively raising interest rates.  But rate hikes have stoked fears of a recession. Strategists at Goldman Sachs recently upgraded their recession probability to 30% from 15%. “We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” Goldman Sachs Chief…

How Inflation Affects Housing

By TYRONE TOWNSEND The Federal Reserve has indicated that the central bank views inflation as a national emergency, with markets expecting a 0.75 percent interest rate rise. However, the Fed’s policy measures could come at a high cost, notably in the housing market.  Low mortgage rates and a lack of housing inventory during COVID-19 lockdowns sent home prices skyrocketing during the last two years. The housing market is cooling as mortgage rates have gone up and even surpassed 6 percent. Although this may be an acceptable short-term price to pay in the fight against inflation, it will cause future supply-chain issues after inflation is under control.  Before the pandemic, a six-month supply of homes for sale was considered a sign…