Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady

By PATRICK LAVERY It wasn’t a reversal by any means, but the Federal Reserve Board voted Wednesday to maintain the federal funds rate target range. Following the July unfreezing of June’s pause, that range is, for now, staying at 5.25% to 5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in remarks to the press following the board’s latest release on monetary policy, stated once again his “dual mandate” to stabilize prices while keeping employment high. “Given how far we have come, we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks,” Powell said. “Real interest rates now are well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate, but we are mindful of…

Mortgage Rates Tick Down Thanks To Fed Pause

Mortgage rates ticked down again, the second consecutive week of declines. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69%, down from 6.71% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.78%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased, however, up from 6.07% to 6.10%. A year ago, it averaged 4.81%. “Mortgage rates decreased slightly this week in anticipation of the pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  The pause did come: after ten consecutive increases, the Fed declined to raise interest rates at its June meeting.  “We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of…

Mortgage Apps Rise Again As Rates Dip

Mortgage applications increased again last week while banking troubles forced rates down. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – rose by 6.5 %. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans fell from 6.79% to 6.71%, giving borrowers brief respite from a month of increases. Adjusted purchase applications increased by 7%, while the unadjusted index was up 8% from the week before and was 38% lower YOY. This is the second consecutive week of increased purchase demand. “Treasury yields declined late last week, as market concerns over bank closures and the potential for broader ripple effects triggered a flight to safety in Treasury bonds. This decline…

Loan Apps Continue Downward Spiral

Mortgage loan application volume fell another 2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey. Interest rates rose to 6.81%, their highest point since 2006. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dropped by 2%. The adjusted purchase index fell 2%, while the unadjusted purchase index decreased 2% and was 39% lower YOY. The refinance index dropped by 2% and was 86% lower than the same time last year. Refis made up 29% of total applications. The ARM share of activity dipped slightly from last week as the 5/1 interest rate jumped 20 basis points from 5.36% to 5.56%. “The ARM share of applications remained quite high at 11.7%– just below last week’s…

Rates Exceed 6%, Applications Tumble

Mortgage loan application volume fell last week as mortgage rates topped 6% for the first time since 2008, nearly doubling year over year. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows that the adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 1.2%. The adjusted purchase index rose 0.2%, while the unadjusted purchase index dropped 12% and was 29% lower YOY. The refinance index dropped by 4% and was 83% lower than the same time last year. Refis made up 30.2% of total applications. “Higher mortgage rates have pushed refinance activity down more than 80 percent from last year and have contributed to more homebuyers staying on the sidelines. Government loans, which tend to be favored by…

Inflation Up 9.1% YOY, Largest Gain Since 1981

Inflation jumped by 9.1% YOY in June, more than analysts predicted and the largest gain since 1981, according to data released by the Labor Department today. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation rising 1.3% month-over-month, its largest jump since 2005. Predictions ahead of the data’s release forecast a 1.1% rise from May and an 8.8% increase YOY. This is the fourth consecutive month that analyst predictions fell short. Another month of skyrocketing inflation suggests that officials will be forced to continue aggressively raising interest rates.  But rate hikes have stoked fears of a recession. Strategists at Goldman Sachs recently upgraded their recession probability to 30% from 15%. “We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” Goldman Sachs Chief…

Rate Cuts Could Come This Year If Fed Can’t Get Inflation Under Control, Analysts Suggest

With the July Federal Open Markets Committee meeting fast approaching, speculation about another substantial rate hike is running rampant. After June’s historic 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike, the third hike this year and the largest since 1994, analysts are watching the Fed closely. Recession fears are rapidly growing, with 70% of economists expecting it by 2023. But Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was more concerned about high inflation continuing than about the possibility of rising interest rates causing a recession. “Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly there’s a risk,” Powell said this week. “The bigger mistake to make, let’s put it that way, would be to fail to restore price stability.” Some experts…

Morning Roundup (2/22/2022)– Rental rates, NJ Foreclosure Funding

Good Morning! Today is Tuesday, February 22. In a speech, Putin laid claim to Ukraine as a country “created by Russia.” Prime Minister Boris Johnson lifted all restrictions in England and announced an end to most free testing. A Biden administration plan to reduce drug deaths will include clean-needle exchanges. The Mortgage Note Reports Rental Rates Up By More Than 15%, Adding To Inflation: Monthly asking rates for rentals increased 15.2% year-over-year in January, and some economists say this is accounting for a significant portion of recent inflation. Foreclosures In New Jersey: $10 Million Set Aside To Help: State officials in New Jersey will use $10 million in federal funding to purchase mortgage notes of homes on the verge of…

Fed’s Bowman Suggests Half-Point Rate Hike In March

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed could hike rates by half a percentage point in March, suggesting the move is necessary to fight inflation. Inflation is currently at a four-decade high, with the Consumer Price Index up 7.5% year-over-year in January 2022. “The nation is dealing with inflation at its highest level in decades, much of it driven by corporate greed and anticompetitive behavior, and the federal government must use every tool available to prevent price gouging and reduce prices for Americans,” Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote in a letter to the Department of Justice, asking it to take action against companies violating antitrust laws to hike prices for consumers.  Bowman said Monday that inflation is “much too high” and suggested…

Morning Roundup (1/27/2022)– Behind The Inflation Curve, Loan Apps Down

Good Morning! Today is Thursday, January 27. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer is retiring. Neil Young is removing his music from Spotify, saying it has become “the home of life-threatening Covid misinformation.” The U.S. rejected Russia’s demands that NATO retreat from Eastern Europe and bar Ukraine from ever joining, but offered other areas of negotiation. The Mortgage Note Reports Rate Increases Into 2023: At least one economist says the Federal Reserve is already behind the inflation curve, and the mortgage industry should expect interest rate increases into 2023. Down, Up, Then Back Down: Mortgage loan application volume fell 7.1% from last week, with refis tumbling 13%, MBA reported. “Appropriate Pricing Policies”: CHLA sent a letter to FHFA Acting Director Sandra…