By PATRICK LAVERY
When last we heard from the Federal Reserve on interest rates, on June 14, the Federal Open Market Committee agreed not to raise the target range for the federal funds rate for the first time in more than a year.
With the Fed’s next meeting now less than a week away, could Chairman Jerome Powell be preparing to announce one of the hikes that he said in June might still be remaining for this year? Or will the FOMC stick to a holding pattern?
And how are those developments going to impact a U.S. housing market that Powell has continuously characterized as sluggish throughout 2023?
It is predicted that the central bank will deliver a quarter of…
Mortgage rates retreated last week, dropping more than ten basis points in a one-week period.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78%, down from 6.96% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.54%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage reversed course as well, down a whopping 24 bps from 6.30% to 6.06%. A year ago, it averaged 4.75%.
“As inflation slows, mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Still, the ongoing shortage of previously owned homes for sale has been a detriment to homebuyers looking to take advantage of declining rates.”
Existing-home sales saw their most sluggish levels in 14 years in June.
At the…
The Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting is just around the corner, and while most experts think the Fed will pause its rate increases, others are wary.
Most analysts expect the Central Bank not to introduce another rate hike at the meeting, scheduled for June 13-14, according to a poll of economists from Reuters. More than 90% of those polled, 78 of 86 total, don’t think another hike is on the horizon. These analysts think the Fed will pause to evaluate the impact of the 500 bps increases they’ve already instituted.
“[Fed Chairman Jerome Powell] expressed his bias in favor of remaining on hold in June … he’s going to stick with that as it gives them an additional month…
Mortgage applications rose last week across the board as rates dipped in the wake of positive news from the Fed.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – increased by 6.3%, changing course after last week’s 1.2% decrease.
Adjusted purchase applications rose by 5%, while the unadjusted index was up 5.3% from the week before and 32% lower YOY.
The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans dipped from 6.50% to 6.48%.
Refinances also showed movement, up 10% from the week prior. They remain 44% lower than the same time last year, however, comprising only 28% of total applications.
In the past decade, refis averaged 58% of…
Inflation continued its upward march last month but showed signs of cooling, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Consumer Price Index rose 5% YOY in March, down from 6% in February. Month-over-month, inflation was up 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared to 0.4% in February.
The core index, which measures everything but volatile food and fuel costs, ticked up by 0.1% to 5.6% YOY. Though the increase is slight, it’s the first YOY acceleration since September.
“This is obviously a short-term setback for the Fed. However, inflation was never expected to decelerate in a straight line,” Tiffany Wilding, managing director and North American economist at PIMCO, wrote in a note. “[N]otwithstanding this report we…
Home prices have fallen for the first time since 2012 as affordability concerns decimate buyer demand.
The median U.S. home sale price dipped by 1.2% to $386,721, the first annual decline in a decade, Redfin reported.
“Buyers are struggling because higher interest rates have increased the cost of homeownership, and sellers are struggling because they’re still adjusting to the fact that their home won’t sell for what their neighbors’ did a year ago,” said Andrew Vallejo, a Redfin real estate agent.
Prices are cooling, but after soaring to record heights after the pandemic, they’re still historically high. The cities with the biggest declines are pandemic hotspots seeing corrections after their boom moment. Two such cities, San Jose and Austin, saw…
Mixed economic indicators released this week may stall the Federal Reserve’s plans for another round of aggressive rate hikes.
Retail sales fell 0.4% in February as consumers strained under high inflation, Commerce Department data released Wednesday showed. Spending fell in eight of the thirteen groups analyzed, with furniture and department stores seeing the biggest dips.
Bar and restaurants saw sales fall by 2.2%, the most in more than a year.
But a surprise decline in producer prices provided a glimmer of hope that inflation may be cooling. Wholesale prices were down 0.1%, upending the Dow Jones prediction of a 0.3% increase. The index still increased YOY, but by less than expected.
Both of these reports come just a day after…
As economists predicted, the 30-year fixed rate fell again this week, moving closer to 6%.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09%, down from 6.13% the week prior.
A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.55%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 5.17% to 5.14%. A year ago, it averaged 2.77%.
“Mortgage rates inched down again, with the 30-year fixed-rate down nearly a full point from November, when it peaked at just over seven percent,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“According to Freddie Mac research, this one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan,…
Mortgage loan application volume increased by 3.8% last week, breaking a multi-week pattern of steep declines, despite rates rising to their highest point since October 2008. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows that the adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, rose by 3.8%. The results include an adjustment for Labor Day. The adjusted purchase index rose 1%, while the unadjusted purchase index increased 11% and was 30% lower YOY. The refinance index rosed by 10% and was 83% lower than the same time last year. Refis made up 32.5% of total applications. “Treasury yields continued to climb higher last week in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where it is expected that they…
Mortgage rates exceeded 6% last week for the first time since 2008, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.02%, up from 5.89% last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.86%. “Mortgage rates continued to rise alongside hotter-than-expected inflation numbers this week, exceeding six percent for the first time since late 2008,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. Inflation rose more than expected in August, up 8.3% YOY, though prices are down some from record highs earlier this year. Analysts had anticipated an 8.1% YOY increase. “Today’s evidence of a peak in US CPI might be welcome but the figure of 8.3% was…
