It’s Their Move: What Will The Feds Do About Interest Rates?

By PATRICK LAVERY Speculation about what actions leaders at the Federal Reserve will take at their meeting starting Tuesday has been building for weeks, and opinions over the right course of action are varied. Should they stay the course, steadily raising interest rates to try to continue to curb inflation? Should they be more aggressive? Or should they pull back, letting the United States slide into a recession? These questions have been swirling for months but the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank changed the dynamics of the conversations seemingly overnight. Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for the National Association of Realtors, said prior to the bank collapses, she could…

Trends: Employees Return To The Office This Year

By CHUCK GREEN More people in business, including those in lending, are returning to in-person work after the pandemic. According to a survey released by Resume Builder last fall, 90% of companies will require employees to return to the office in 2023. Disney laid down the law at the start of the year, making it mandatory for corporate employees to show up at the office – starting March 1 – four days a week. Starbucks corporate employees were told to report to work in person at least three days a week by the end of January. Based on data from employers in 10 major U.S. cities, badge-swipe tallies collected by security firm Kastle Systems indicated office occupancy reached 50.4% for…

Pending Home Sales Rise, Breaking Six Month Spiral

Pending home sales rose for the first time since May, breaking a six-month streak of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index increased by 2.5% between November and December. Year-over-year it dropped by 33.8%, an improvement over November’s 37%. All four regions saw pending sales fall YOY, but the South and West saw gains month-over-month. “This recent low point in home sales activity is likely over,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.” Mortgage rates fell again last week to 6.13%, drawing some buyers back to the market. Purchase loan applications increased again as…

Sellers Feel The Pain Of Price Drops

By CHUCK GREEN Next time you run into someone in the local Starbucks who happens to have their home on the market, be a sport and plop an extra scone into their bag, huh? A little butter and jam, too? After all, sellers probably aren’t riding the wave of a sugar high induced by whatever they will pocket in their real estate transactions as experts say the price of an average home in the United States is decreasing. The cities expected to be the most heavily hit include: San Francisco: -10.36% Seattle: -9.55% San Diego: -7.24% Los Angeles: -5.61% Denver: -5.60% Dallas: -4.34% Portland: -4.25% Las Vegas: -3.69% What is contributing to the drop in housing prices? B. George Ratiu,…

Forget Student Loans, How About Forgiving Our Mortgage Loans?

By CHUCK GREEN and KIMBERLEY HAAS The U.S. Supreme Court will be hearing two cases challenging the legality of President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan on Feb. 28 and The Mortgage Note is asking the question, why not mortgage debt relief when that is a bigger burden to average Americans? Mortgage balances rose by $282 billion in the third quarter of 2022 and were at $11.67 trillion by the end of September. According to a press release issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, student loan balances slightly declined to $1.57 trillion. Total household debt reached $16.51 trillion in Q3. That includes mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. Sarah Paulson, a certified financial planner at Valkyrie Financial…

Existing Home Sales Continue Declining

Existing-home sales dropped for the tenth straight month in November, down 7.7% from October and 35.4% YOY, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million from 4.43 million the month prior. All four major regions saw declines. “In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  “The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.” Inventory of unsold homes fell 6.6% from October to…

Monetary Policy: How Will The Fed’s Rate Hike Affect Home Affordability?

By KIMBERLEY HAAS With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates seven times this year – and with more rate hikes on the way in 2023 – people are wondering if their policies to cool inflation are unfairly punishing those in the housing market. The Fed’s policy-setting committee raised its benchmark rate a half-point to 4.5% this week. The goal is to reach 2% inflation by controlling monetary policy. The chair of the Federal Reserve opened his press conference on Wednesday saying that he would like to underscore for the American people that they understand the hardship that high inflation is causing. Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy has slowed significantly from last year’s rapid pace. “Recent indicators point to modest…

Hitting The Market During The Holidays? What Sellers And Buyers Need To Know

By KIMBERLEY HAAS The housing market traditionally cools during the holiday season as people focus on family and friends but industry leaders say it is a good time for potential sellers and buyers to weigh their options. After mortgage rates recently surged above 7%, real estate activity and consumer sentiment took a nosedive. Home delistings hit a record high in November as sellers and buyers pulled out of the market, according to journalists Lily Katz and Ben Walzer at Redfin. Markets where home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic are now cooling the fastest. In Sacramento, Calif., an average of 3.6% of active listings were delisted per week during the 12 weeks ending on November 27, up 1.6 percentage points from one year earlier.…

Pending Home Sales Fall For Fifth Straight Month

Pending home sales fell for the fifth consecutive month in October, with three of the four regions seeing month-over-month declines, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index dropped by 4.6% between September and October. Year-over-year it tanked by 37%. All four regions saw pending sales drop year-over-year. The Midwest, however, experienced a small uptick month-over-month, up by 3.3%. The Northeast PHSI fell by 4.3% from September, while the South fell 6.4% and the West saw a major decline of 11.3%. “October was a difficult month for home buyers as they faced 20-year-high mortgage rates. The West region, in particular, suffered from the combination of high interest rates and expensive home prices. Only the Midwest squeaked out…

First-Time Homebuyers Are A Shrinking Share Of The Market, And Skewing Older

First-time homebuyers are fewer and older than ever before, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors. NAR’s 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers found that the share of first-time homebuyers fell to its lowest point in the data’s history, while their median age rose to 36 years old, the highest point. NAR has been compiling this data since 1981. First-timers made up only 26% of all buyers, down from 34% last year. Their median age rose from 33 a year ago, while the typical repeat homebuyer’s age rose from 56 to 59, also a record high. The median expected home tenure for a first-time buyer was 18 years, yet another record and up 8 years since…