Pending Home Sales Down For Third Month

Pending home sales fell for a third consecutive month in August, with three of the four regions seeing month-over-month declines, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index dropped by 2% between July and August. Year-over-year it tanked by 24.2%. All four regions saw pending sales drop year-over-year. The West, however, experienced a small uptick month-over-month, up by 1.4%. The Northeast PHSI fell by 3.4% from July, while the South fell 0.9% and the Midwest dipped by 5.2%. “The direction of mortgage rates – upward or downward – is the prime mover for home buying, and decade-high rates have deeply cut into contract signings,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “If mortgage rates moderate and the…

Existing Home Sales Down 0.4% In August

Existing-home sales dropped for the seventh straight month in August, down 0.4% from July and 19.9% YOY, according to the National Association of Realtors’ most recent data. Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.80 million and declined in every major region. Inventory of unsold homes fell 1.5% from July to 1.28 million, breaking a five-month streak of increases. This is a 3.2 months supply at the current sales pace. “The housing sector is the most sensitive to and experiences the most immediate impacts from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy changes,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  “The softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates. Nonetheless, homeowners are doing well with near nonexistent distressed…

July Pending Home Sales Slip Slightly, Buoyed By Moderating Interest Rates

Following moderating mortgage rates, pending home sales slipped only slightly in July, down 1% from June. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index posted a reading of 89.8 last month. A reading of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Pending sales were down 19.9% YOY, slipping from last month’s 20% YOY reading. It was the second consecutive month of decline and the eighth in the last nine months. “In terms of the current housing cycle, we may be at or close to the bottom in contract signings. This month’s very modest decline reflects the recent retreat in mortgage rates. Inventories are growing for homes in the upper price ranges, but limited supply at…

Applications Hit Lowest Level Since 2000

Mortgage loan application volume fell 2.3% last week, reversing a two-week uptick, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows. Overall applications dipped to their lowest level since 2000. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 2.3%. The adjusted purchase index fell 1% while the unadjusted purchase index dropped 2% and was 18% lower YOY. The refinance index dropped by 5% and made up 31.2% of total applications, down 82% from the same time last year.  Refinances are at their lowest level since November 2000, pushed down by a 6% decline in conventional refinance applications. ARM activity fell to 7% of total applications. “Home purchase applications continued to be held down by rapidly drying…

Pending Home Sales Slip

Pending home sales tumbled in June after a slight increase in May, falling 8.6% month-over-month and 20% YOY. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index posted a reading of 91 last month. A reading of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The PSHI is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. “Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  “There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize.” Buying a…

Pending Home Sales Tick Up, Breaking Six Month Downward Streak

Pending home sales finally rose in May after six consecutive months of decreases, ticking up a small but significant 0.7%. The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) posted a reading 99.9 last month. A reading of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The PSHI  is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. However, year-over-year transactions are down 13.6%. “Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates.” All four regions saw YOY declines but were split down…

Pending Home Sales Down For Sixth Straight Month

Pending home sales fell for the sixth straight month, down 3.9% in April from the month prior and 9.1% YOY, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The PHSI looks at contract signings as an indicator of home sales, with a reading of 100 equal to contract signing activity in 2001. It registered a reading of 99.3 in April. Only the Midwest saw an increase in pending sales, while the three other regions saw declines. Pending home sales transactions in the South fell by 4.7% to an index of 119.0, down 10.3% YOY. The index in the West slipped 4.3% in April to 85.9, a 10.5% decrease YOY. “Pending contracts are telling, as they…

Commercial And Industrial Real Estate Doing Well

By CHUCK GREEN While climbing interest rates are throwing a monkey wrench in the U.S. economy, commercial real estate – at least in the short term – seems to be looking up. In a recent address to the 2022 REALTORS Legislative Meetings’ Commercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said regardless of burgeoning rates, the commercial real estate market is expected to prosper. “Outside of the office sector, which is lagging behind as employers allow increased remote work flexibility to keep and attract talent, commercial real estate continues to strengthen,” Yun said. Apparently shucking aside setbacks in light of the 2020 and 2021 pandemic, heading into this year conditions were looking up for the commercial real…

Rates Shoot Back Up After One-Week Reversal

Mortgage rates shot back up after a one-week reversal of their upward trend, averaging 5.29% last week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.29%, up from 5% last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.96%. “Mortgage rates resumed their climb this week as the 30-year fixed reached its highest point since 2009,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While housing affordability and inflationary pressures pose challenges for potential buyers, house price growth will continue but is expected to decelerate in the coming months.” Affordability dropped in Q1 2022, with monthly mortgage payments on the typical home rising to $1,383 (+30% YOY). Homeowners…

Double-Digit Home Price Growth Increased In Q1 2022

More metro areas saw double-digit YOY increases in their median single-family existing-home sales price in Q1 2022 than in Q4 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) quarterly report. Prices grew by double-digits in 70% of the 185 metros analyzed by NAR, up from 66% in Q4 2021. The median sales of single-family existing homes rose at a pace of 15.7% to $368,200, compared to 14.3% in the quarter prior. Affordability dropped as a result, with monthly mortgage payments on the typical home with a 20% downpayment rising to $1,383, up $319 (30%) YOY. Homeowners spent 18.7% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 14.2% the same time last year. The South region accounted for 45% of…