Metros With Fewer Mortgages See Less Rate Lock-In

Inventory is doing best in cities with fewer mortgages and older homeowners, reinforcing the impact of high interest rates on the market. That’s according to a new report from Zillow, which found that metros where more homes are owned outright are seeing the fastest growth in new listings. Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Cleveland have the highest share of homeowners free from rate lock-in.  Generationally, Baby Boomers are the most likely not to be impacted by mortgage rates when deciding to purchase a home. That’s compared to just 6% of Millennial homeowners. More than 10 million homeowners are mortgage-free and could afford monthly payments if they decided to move today. This demographic skews older and tends to live in more affordable markets,…

Applications Rise, Reversing After A Dip

Mortgage applications shot up last week, reversing a slip, as rates remain stable into February. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – increased by 3.7%, countering the week prior’s 7.2% dip. Adjusted purchase applications slipped by 1%, while the unadjusted index increased by 6% and was 19% lower YOY. Rates actually rose slightly, clocking in at 6.8%, but have stayed in the mid-6% range since the beginning of 2024. “Mortgage rates have stayed close to where they started the year, despite swings in Treasury yields because of slowing inflation offset by stronger than expected readings on the job market,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and…

Election 2024: Biden’s Housing Problem

By KIMBERLEY HAAS With just weeks left before the Iowa caucus and the presidential primary in New Hampshire, home affordability is weighing on the minds of voters and at least one leading economist says the issue could take center stage as the race for the White House heats up. Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin, has said that President Joe Biden will be forced to make home affordability a cornerstone of his reelection bid. “Even though the overall economy is strong, high housing costs are making many Americans feel poor,” Fairweather said in her recent release on housing predictions for 2024. “Home prices are up more than 20% since President Biden took office. That’s a problem for his re-election bid:…

PCE Soars To Four-Month High

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure soared to a four-month high in September, increasing the likelihood of future Fed rate hikes. The personal consumption expenditures price index tracks what Americans buy and for how much, offering a view into their spending habits. The core index, which excludes food and energy components, increased by 0.3% in September.  When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.4%. The data comes on the heels of news that the economy grew by 4.9% in Q3 2023, the fastest pace in two years and more than expected. Consumers once again waved off recession fears, but the increase puts the Central Bank in a tough position as it battles inflation. Analysts generally maintain that another increase won’t come…

Fannie Still Predicts Recession

Despite recent optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve’s “soft landing” strategy, economists at Fannie Mae are still expecting a mild recession next year. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group wrote in a note that mixed economic signals this month make it difficult to guess the near future, but a “modest contraction” in early 2024 remains the most likely outcome of the Fed’s inflation fight. They cite consumption outpacing incomes, big differences between gross domestic product and gross domestic income over the past three quarters, and previous policy tightening still moving through the systems as signs of what’s to come. Additionally, households are expected to restrict spending in the latter part of the year as inflated prices catch up to budgets.…

Consumers Down In The Dumps On Homebuying Despite Optimism About Personal Finances

As inflation slowly cools, consumers are feeling a lot more secure in their personal finances. But when it comes to homebuying, they’re still in the dumps. Leaders at Fannie Mae said the Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased by 4 points YOY in July as consumers responded positively to the job security and mortgage rate components. When asked to describe their feeling about the housing market, consumers became much more pessimistic, however, with 82% reporting that it’s a “bad time to buy” a home. This is a record high, up from 78% in June and above the last all-time high in October 2022. “While consumers are reporting confidence in the components related to their personal financial situations, it’s unlikely we’ll see…

Questions Linger Before Next Week’s FOMC Meeting

By PATRICK LAVERY When last we heard from the Federal Reserve on interest rates, on June 14, the Federal Open Market Committee agreed not to raise the target range for the federal funds rate for the first time in more than a year. With the Fed’s next meeting now less than a week away, could Chairman Jerome Powell be preparing to announce one of the hikes that he said in June might still be remaining for this year? Or will the FOMC stick to a holding pattern? And how are those developments going to impact a U.S. housing market that Powell has continuously characterized as sluggish throughout 2023? It is predicted that the central bank will deliver a quarter of…

Consumer Sentiment Sees A Boost As Rates, Prices Moderate

Homebuyers are feeling slightly more optimistic about the market as mortgage rates ease. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) rose 3.7 points in December. Three of its six components improved from the month prior as more consumers said they expect rates and home prices to drop. After weeks of declines, rates inched up in the first week of 2023 but remain well below 7%. Economists at Freddie Mac expect them to fall further as inflationary pressures ease. But home purchase sentiment remains near its all-time low, set in October, and is down 13.2 points YOY. Only 21% of respondents believe it’s a good time to buy a home. And the possibility of additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve…

Consumer Concerns: Unfavorable Rates Means People Are Not Buying Or Selling

By ISAIAS PACHECO The home purchase settlement index decreased by two points in July, according to Fannie Mae. This is the lowest level since 2011, and the HSPI has been declining steadily which is making consumers concerned. They are not buying or selling, experts say. Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, said in a statement that unfavorable rates have been increasingly cited by consumers as the top reason behind the growing perception that it is a bad time to buy and sell. It is expected that the market will cool and there will be moderate home sales over the coming year. Thousands of people in the industry may be let go as a result. Email story ideas to…

Only 17% Of Consumers Think It’s A Good Time To Buy A Home

Only 17% of consumers believe it’s a good time to purchase a home as rising interest rates and high home prices push many buyers out of the market, according to Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The May HPSI fell by 0.3 points, remaining relatively steady, but continues to move closer to its 10-year low of 63, recorded in April 2020. The full index is down 11.8 points YOY. Affordability was the main concern of the consumers surveyed. The “Good Time to Buy” indicator dropped to a new low, with 79% of respondents saying it’s a bad time to buy a home. The majority of respondents also said they expect mortgage rates to continue rising in the next twelve months. A…