Despite recent optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve’s “soft landing” strategy, economists at Fannie Mae are still expecting a mild recession next year.
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group wrote in a note that mixed economic signals this month make it difficult to guess the near future, but a “modest contraction” in early 2024 remains the most likely outcome of the Fed’s inflation fight.
They cite consumption outpacing incomes, big differences between gross domestic product and gross domestic income over the past three quarters, and previous policy tightening still moving through the systems as signs of what’s to come.
Additionally, households are expected to restrict spending in the latter part of the year as inflated prices catch up to budgets.…
As inflation slowly cools, consumers are feeling a lot more secure in their personal finances. But when it comes to homebuying, they’re still in the dumps.
Leaders at Fannie Mae said the Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased by 4 points YOY in July as consumers responded positively to the job security and mortgage rate components.
When asked to describe their feeling about the housing market, consumers became much more pessimistic, however, with 82% reporting that it’s a “bad time to buy” a home. This is a record high, up from 78% in June and above the last all-time high in October 2022.
“While consumers are reporting confidence in the components related to their personal financial situations, it’s unlikely we’ll see…
By PATRICK LAVERY
When last we heard from the Federal Reserve on interest rates, on June 14, the Federal Open Market Committee agreed not to raise the target range for the federal funds rate for the first time in more than a year.
With the Fed’s next meeting now less than a week away, could Chairman Jerome Powell be preparing to announce one of the hikes that he said in June might still be remaining for this year? Or will the FOMC stick to a holding pattern?
And how are those developments going to impact a U.S. housing market that Powell has continuously characterized as sluggish throughout 2023?
It is predicted that the central bank will deliver a quarter of…
Homebuyers are feeling slightly more optimistic about the market as mortgage rates ease. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) rose 3.7 points in December. Three of its six components improved from the month prior as more consumers said they expect rates and home prices to drop. After weeks of declines, rates inched up in the first week of 2023 but remain well below 7%. Economists at Freddie Mac expect them to fall further as inflationary pressures ease. But home purchase sentiment remains near its all-time low, set in October, and is down 13.2 points YOY. Only 21% of respondents believe it’s a good time to buy a home. And the possibility of additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve…
By ISAIAS PACHECO The home purchase settlement index decreased by two points in July, according to Fannie Mae. This is the lowest level since 2011, and the HSPI has been declining steadily which is making consumers concerned. They are not buying or selling, experts say. Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, said in a statement that unfavorable rates have been increasingly cited by consumers as the top reason behind the growing perception that it is a bad time to buy and sell. It is expected that the market will cool and there will be moderate home sales over the coming year. Thousands of people in the industry may be let go as a result. Email story ideas to…
Only 17% of consumers believe it’s a good time to purchase a home as rising interest rates and high home prices push many buyers out of the market, according to Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The May HPSI fell by 0.3 points, remaining relatively steady, but continues to move closer to its 10-year low of 63, recorded in April 2020. The full index is down 11.8 points YOY. Affordability was the main concern of the consumers surveyed. The “Good Time to Buy” indicator dropped to a new low, with 79% of respondents saying it’s a bad time to buy a home. The majority of respondents also said they expect mortgage rates to continue rising in the next twelve months. A…
By TYRONE TOWNSEND As the spring selling season continues, those in the industry are noticing that the housing market in parts of the country is beginning to cool after a wild ride during the pandemic. Bidding wars and all-cash bids were prevalent due to rising housing prices and low availability. As more investors invaded the market, millions of average Americans were left on the sidelines, unable to compete. The housing market is already beginning to cool but despite this fact, respite for homeowners – particularly first-time purchasers – is unlikely as the Federal Reserve continues to boost interest rates to battle inflation, driving up mortgage rates. According to Realtor.com’s Monthly Home Trends Report, housing inventory in the United States was…
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group has downwardly revised its full-year 2022 real GDP expectations, along with anticipated home sales and mortgage originations, according to the group’s latest forecast. They now expect full-year real GDP to grow at a reduced rate of 1.3%, a 0.8% decrease from their previous prediction, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and “a slowdown of global economic growth.” The forecast also predicts that Q2 2022 will see growth rebound to 1.6%, a reaction to Q1’s economic contraction of 1.4%. “Financial conditions have tightened significantly, and the economy is slowing faster than previously expected as markets adjust to the Federal Reserve’s tightening guidance,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. Mortgage…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS There are pockets of the country where more homes are being listed than there were before the housing market exploded in 2020 which is a good sign for buyers in those metro areas. According to an article by Margaret Heidenry for Realtor.com, metros that saw the most new homes hit the market include Riverside, CA (+23.3%), Austin, TX (+16.5%), and Sacramento, CA (+11.8%). Metros include the main city and surrounding suburbs, towns, and smaller urban communities, according to the article. Compass Agent Paul Reddam in Austin told Heidenry it is hard to nail down what is causing inventory to loosen, but this is typically the peak of their real estate cycle. The bad news is that the number of homes for sale…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS Consumers across the country continue to report difficult homebuying conditions due to inflation, higher mortgage rates, and home price appreciation. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, says that in April their Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level since the spring of 2020. The percentage of respondents who said it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 24% to 19%, while the percentage who said it is a bad time to buy increased from 73% to 76%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 8 percentage points month over month, according to the survey. “The current lack…
