New home sales dropped by 2% in February, declining for a second consecutive month, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Purchase of new single-family homes fell to a 772,000 annualized rate, down from a revised rate of 788,000 in January and 6.2% lower than the expected rate of 823,000. These declines suggest American house hunters are taking a step back as interest rates and inflation rise. The South and West, two regions that have been quite popular with homebuyers in the last year, saw sales decline, while the less popular Northeast and Midwest saw an increase in sales. At month’s end, an estimated 407,000 new homes remained on the market,…
Mortgage loan application volume plummeted by 8.1% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dropped by 8.1%%. The adjusted purchase index fell 2%, while the unadjusted purchase index fell 1% and was 12% lower YOY. The refinance index fell a whopping 14% and was down 54% YOY. Refinances made up 44.8% of total applications. Mortgage interest rates jumped by 23 basis points last week, their largest weekly increase since March 2020, due to the Fed’s interest rate hike and the expectation of fewer MBS purchases, Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, noted. “With mortgage rates now at 4.5%, compared to rates at…
Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks made $1,099 on each originated loan in Q4 2021, dropping from Q3’s $2,594, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report. More than three-fourths (76%) of firms analyzed made a net profit in Q4, especially firms with servicing operations. Those benefited from slower prepayments and low delinquencies which boosted their MSR valuations. But it’s a decrease from Q3’s rate of 92%. Plus, if no firms in the study had servicing operations, only 58% would have made a net profit last quarter. “Production margins tightened substantially in the fourth quarter of 2021. After a two-year run of above-average profitability, pre-tax net production income per loan reached its…
Investment opportunities in multifamily housing lost some steam in Q4 2021, with the Freddie Mac Multifamily Apartment Investment Market Index (AIMI) falling by 4.8% from Q3 and 2.4% year-over-year. AIMI analyzes multifamily rental income growth, property price growth, and mortgage rates to measure multifamily market investment conditions. A decline such as this indicates that attractive investment opportunities are becoming more difficult to find. The report suggests that record multifamily price appreciation and rising mortgage rates offset net operating incomes (NOI), despite “unprecedented” income growth for multifamily investors. Property prices grew by 19.6% YOY, while NOI grew by only 17.7%. “The year-over-year AIMI decline shows us that it may be more difficult now to find attractive multifamily investment opportunities in some…
Average monthly asking rent in the U.S. leaped to new heights in February, up 15% year-over-year to a record high of $1,901, though mortgage growth outpaced it yet again, according to Redfin. Rent growth saw its largest annual increase since Redfin began tracking rental data in February 2019. Mortgage payments rose 31% YOY to $1,716, also the biggest increase recorded by Redfin. Mortgage payment increases outpaced rent increases in 44 of the 50 largest U.S. metros. “The cost of housing is going up for homebuyers and renters, but it’s going up more quickly for homebuyers,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “That’s because mortgage rates have increased sharply, and will likely continue to do so. When the cost of homeownership…
Existing-home sales fell in February as rising interest rates and inflation continue to put pressure on consumers, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.02 million, down 7.2% from January and 2.4% year-over-year. The inventory of unsold existing homes rose slightly to 87,000, or 1.7 months of supply at the current sales pace. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw sales fall on a month-over-month basis in February. Sales activity year-over-year was also down overall, though the South experienced an increase while the remaining three regions reported drops in transactions. The median existing-home sales price increased to $357,300, up 15% YOY and the 120th straight month of annual price increases. It’s…
Mortgage rates broke 4% for the first time since May 2019, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.16%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.09%. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded four percent for the first time since May of 2019,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The Federal Reserve raising short-term rates and signaling further increases means mortgage rates should continue to rise over the course of the year. While home purchase demand has moderated, it remains competitive due to low existing inventory, suggesting high house price pressures will continue during the spring homebuying season.” The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a…
After dropping to a post-pandemic low, forbearance rose by 8,000 last week (1%), according to Black Knight’s blog, Vision. Forborne loans held by portfolios and PSLs drove the week with an increase of 9,000 (3.9%). It was slightly offset by FHA/VA loans in forbearance falling by 1,000 (-0.3%). GSE plans remained unchanged. Black Knight calls this a “familiar pattern,” in which the middle of the month brings an uptick in plans. They’ll even out next week. Notably, both new plan starts and restarts fell, with starts hitting their lowest weekly total since Thanksgiving. Plan volume is down 41,000 (-5%) month-over-month. The increase this week comes on the heels of a major drop in plans last week, so rates remain historically…
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is rippling through the U.S. economy, according to March commentary from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group predicts full-year 2022 real GDP growth of 2.3%, down from last month’s projected 2.8%. The group also increased its predictions about the 30-year fixed mortgage, bumping its forecast up to 3.8% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023. Total home sales are now expected to drop 4.1% in 2022, compared to a 2.4% decline predicted last month. Home purchase loan volume should hold up but refinance activity is expected to plunge to only a third of originations. This should come as no surprise to mortgage professionals who are already seeing huge declines in refi activity.…
Mortgage loan application volume fell 1.2% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dropped 1.2%. The adjusted purchase index fell 1%, while the unadjusted purchase index fell 2% and was 8% lower YOY. The refinance index fell 3% and was down 49% YOY. Refinances made up 48.4% of total applications. Rising mortgage rates continue to impact application activity. Rates reached 4.27% last week, their highest since May 2019, and are adding to investor uncertainty. They’re also having an outsized impact on refis, which declined for both conventional and government loans. Refinances bounced up last week due to a brief drop in rates, though it was…
