Originations See Largest YOY Decline In Two Decades

Mortgage originations saw their largest annual decline in 21 years, further evidence that the housing boom is coming to an end. Originations fell 47% YOY in Q3, according to ATTOM Data’s Q3 2022 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report. Quarter-over-quarter they were down 19%, the sixth consecutive drop. Lenders issued a total of $636.5 billion worth of mortgages in Q3. By dollar count, that’s down 22% from Q2 and 46% YOY. It’s the largest dip in loan dollar volume since at least 2001. HELOC lending increased for the fifth time in six quarters, but the boost was overwhelmed by the slump in purchase and refinance origination. “There are no surprises in this quarter’s loan origination numbers, as the unprecedented jump…

Rate Locks Dip To New Low, Refis Hit Hard

Origination activity continues to sink as the market corrects, with refinances seeing major drops. Black Knight’s October 2022 Originations Market Monitor report found that rate lock dollar volume dropped 14.3% month-over-month to its lowest level since February 2019. Refinances have been hit especially hard, making up just 14% of all origination activity in October. Cash-out refis, which had previously seemed resilient due to widespread equity gains, fell 25.1% from September and are down 83.6% YOY. Rate/term refis sank an additional 15.7% and are now down 92.6% YOY. “With interest rates now at their highest level in 20 years, the refi market is rapidly approaching a bottom,” said Scott Happ, president of Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight.  “Indeed, our…

Dwindling Refis Eclipsed Rising HELOC, Purchase Lending In Q2 2022

Refinance lending fell 36% from Q1 to Q2 2022, eclipsing increases in other lending areas, according to ATTOM’s second-quarter 2022 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report. The report found that 2.39 million mortgages secured by residential property were originated in Q2 2022, down 13% from Q1 and 40% YOY. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of falling originations and the biggest annual drop since 2014. Though purchase originations and home-equity lending actually increased 8% and 35%, respectively, they were heavily outweighed by the double-digit refi drop. The total number of mortgages issued was down 13.2% from Q1 and 40% YOY, dropping at their fastest pace in eight years. Lenders issued $807.8 billion worth of mortgages overall in Q2, down 11%…

Mortgage Lenders Lost Money On Each Loan Originated In Q2 2022

Mortgage Lenders lost money on every loan originated for the first time since 2018 in Q2, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report. Independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks lost an average of $82 on each loan they originated in the second quarter of 2022, down from gains of $223 per loan in Q1. The average pre-tax production loss was 5 bps, a complete turnaround from Q1’s average net production profit of 5 bps. Average production volume totaled $705 million per company, down from $808 million in Q1. Only three other quarters in the survey’s history saw net production losses: Q1 2014, Q1 2018, and Q4 2018. “The second quarter of 2022…

Lock Volume Down As Rates Rise

Total mortgage lock volumes fell 11% in May across all types of loans as rising rates kept buyers out of the market, according to Black Knight’s June Originations Market Monitor.  Locks volumes fell across the spectrum, with rate/term and cash-out refinances down 9% and 13%, respectively, while purchase loan locks fell 11%. “This continues to be a challenging environment for mortgage originators,” said Scott Happ, president of Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight. “Rate lock activity was down for the third consecutive month in June, with declines seen across all loan purpose types. Purchase mortgages – which currently account for 82% of all lock activity – fell 11% by volume from May and are now down nearly 16% from…

Fannie Lowers Home Sale and Origination Expectations For 2022/23

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group has downwardly revised its full-year 2022 real GDP expectations, along with anticipated home sales and mortgage originations, according to the group’s latest forecast. They now expect full-year real GDP to grow at a reduced rate of 1.3%, a 0.8% decrease from their previous prediction, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and “a slowdown of global economic growth.” The forecast also predicts that Q2 2022 will see growth rebound to 1.6%, a reaction to Q1’s economic contraction of 1.4%. “Financial conditions have tightened significantly, and the economy is slowing faster than previously expected as markets adjust to the Federal Reserve’s tightening guidance,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. Mortgage…

Commercial/Multifamily Originations Up YOY But Decline From Q4

Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations rose 72% YOY in Q1 2022, though they were down 39% from Q4 2021 due to seasonality trends, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. “The strong momentum in commercial and multifamily borrowing and lending at the end of 2021 carried into the first quarter,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research.  “The continued growth in lending activity is the result of the ongoing strong demand for certain property types like industrial and multifamily, as well as renewed interest in other property types that saw more dramatic declines during the early stages of the pandemic, such as hotel and retail.” Demand for hotel…

IMB Profits Dropped In Q4

Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks made $1,099 on each originated loan in Q4 2021, dropping from Q3’s $2,594, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report. More than three-fourths (76%) of firms analyzed made a net profit in Q4, especially firms with servicing operations. Those benefited from slower prepayments and low delinquencies which boosted their MSR valuations. But it’s a decrease from Q3’s rate of 92%. Plus, if no firms in the study had servicing operations, only 58% would have made a net profit last quarter. “Production margins tightened substantially in the fourth quarter of 2021. After a two-year run of above-average profitability, pre-tax net production income per loan reached its…

Lending Dropped For Third Straight Quarter In Q4 2021

Mortgage lending dropped at its fastest pace in almost three years in Q4 2021, down for the third quarter in a row and the largest decrease since late 2018, according to ATTOM’s Q4 2021 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report. The report found that 3.27 million mortgages were originated in Q4 2021, or $1.06 trillion worth of mortgages. This is down 11% from Q3 2021 and 13% from Q4 2020. All three categories of conventional loans– purchase, refi, and home equity– saw quarterly declines, with only purchases remaining up year-over-year (YOY). Refis were down 11% from Q3 2021 and 23% YOY, with 1.81 million home loans refinanced. Q4 was the third straight quarter of refi declines. The dollar volume of…

Commercial/Multifamily Originations Booming And Expected To Grow In 2022

Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations jumped in 2021 and are expected to continue booming in 2022, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported at its 2022 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo. Originations rose 79% YOY in Q4 2021 and 44% from Q3. A preliminary measure of commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers’ originations volumes found 2021 activity to be 67% higher than 2020’s. “The fourth quarter of 2021 was a record end to a record year of borrowing and lending backed by commercial and multifamily properties,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research.  “Part of the growth from 2020 was a bounce-back from the worst of the recession. However, rebounding property fundamentals and strong valuations, record sales…