ESR Downgrades 2022 Predictions

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is rippling through the U.S. economy, according to March commentary from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group predicts full-year 2022 real GDP growth of 2.3%, down from last month’s projected 2.8%. The group also increased its predictions about the 30-year fixed mortgage, bumping its forecast up to 3.8% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023. Total home sales are now expected to drop 4.1% in 2022, compared to a 2.4% decline predicted last month. Home purchase loan volume should hold up but refinance activity is expected to plunge to only a third of originations. This should come as no surprise to mortgage professionals who are already seeing huge declines in refi activity.…