Housing Starts Sank In June, But Permits Offer A Glimmer Of Hope

Housing construction declined last month, but the future looks brighter thanks to a bump in permits. New U.S. home construction rose for the first time in six months, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Residential starts fell by 8% to an annualized rate of 1.43 million. This is well below estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who expected a pace of 1.48 million. Permits for new construction also dipped, down 3.7%% to a rate of 1.44 million. Permits offer an indication of how many homes will be built in the coming months. But on the bright side, single-family construction permits in particular saw an increase, up 2.2% from May to the highest pace since June 2022. Builders continue…

Average Rate Comes Close To 7%

The average interest rates closed in on the 7% mark last week, pushing affordability further out of reach for many Americans. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96%, up from 6.81% the week prior in the second week of 10+ bps jumps. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.51%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage shot up as well, from 6.24% to 6.30%. A year ago, it averaged 4.67%. “Incoming data suggest that inflation is softening, falling to its lowest annual rate in more than two years. However, increases in housing costs, which account for a large share of inflation, remain stubbornly high, mainly due to low inventory relative to demand,” said…

Applications Rebound As Rates Exceed 7%

Mortgage applications went up last week, benefitting from VA and FHA activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – increased by 0.9%, improving slightly after the week prior’s 4.4% decline. This week’s data includes an adjustment for the July 4th holiday. Adjusted purchase applications rose by 2%, though the unadjusted index was down 19% from the week before and 26% lower YOY. The bump in purchase activity is attributed to an increase in FHA and VA loan activity. Both loan types offer major perks like low down payments and minimum closing costs to those who qualify, making them more attractive than conventional loans in the current…

Rates Soar, Jumping 10 BPS

Mortgage rates reversed course last week, jumping 10 bps in one week to their highest point of the year so far. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.81%, up from 6.71% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.30%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage shot up as well, from 6.06% to 6.24%. A year ago, it averaged 4.45%. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low inventory continue to price many potential homebuyers out of the market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. Minutes from the most recent FOMC…

Apps Shrink Again, Wiping Out Last Week’s Gains

After an uptick last week, mortgage applications sank again, falling to their lowest level in a month as rates surged. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – decreased by 4.4%, wiping out last week’s 3% gains. Adjusted purchase applications fell by 5%, though the unadjusted index rose 6% from the week before and 22% lower YOY. Refinances dropped, down 4% from the week prior. They remain 30% lower than the same time last year, comprising only 27.4% of total applications. In the past decade, refis averaged 58% of total activity. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans rose from 6.75% to 6.85%. This is the…

Mortgage Rates Slip Again

Mortgage rates fell again, the third consecutive week of declines, but once again gave only an inch. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.67%, down from 6.69% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.81%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage slipped as well, down from 6.10% to 6.03%. A year ago, it averaged 4.92%. “Mortgage rates slid down again this week but remain elevated compared to this time last year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  “Potential homebuyers have been watching rates closely and are waiting to come off the sidelines. However, inventory challenges persist as the number of existing homes for sale remains very low. Though, a…

Mortgage Rates Tick Down Thanks To Fed Pause

Mortgage rates ticked down again, the second consecutive week of declines. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69%, down from 6.71% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.78%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased, however, up from 6.07% to 6.10%. A year ago, it averaged 4.81%. “Mortgage rates decreased slightly this week in anticipation of the pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  The pause did come: after ten consecutive increases, the Fed declined to raise interest rates at its June meeting.  “We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of…

Federal Reserve Pauses Interest Rate Hikes

By PATRICK LAVERY The Federal Open Market Committee called a pause on their rate hikes Wednesday, electing to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5% to 5.25% while continuing to significantly reduce securities holdings. It was not a complete victory lap for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who told reporters at a press conference that the FOMC overwhelmingly expects to raise interest rates “somewhat further” before the end of 2023. The reason for the future uncertainty in interest rates continues to be inflation, which is still “well above” the Fed’s longer-run 2% goal, according to Powell. The Summary of Economic Projections released concurrently with Wednesday’s announcement kept that 2% target destined for 2025. A survey…

All Eyes On The Federal Reserve

By KIMBERLEY HAAS Industry leaders are speculating about what officials at the Federal Reserve will do concerning rate increases during their meeting this week. In May, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said they were prepared to raise rates again if economic conditions worsened, but hinted at a wait-and-see attitude regarding this month’s meeting. Policymakers may even skip raising rates after a smaller than expected rise in the Consumer Price Index, released on Tuesday. CNN reporter Matt Egan said the CPI report gives officials the cover they need to hold off on increasing rates this month. “Investors are becoming increasingly confident that the Fed is going to keep interest rates steady after … 10 consecutive interest rate hikes. The Fed has…

Rates Fall, Breaking Upward Streak

Mortgage rates declined last week, breaking a three-week streak of increases. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.71%, down from 6.79% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.23%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also fell from 6.18% to 6.07%. A year ago, it averaged 4.38%. “Mortgage rates decreased after a three-week climb,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While elevated rates and other affordability challenges remain, inventory continues to be the biggest obstacle for prospective homebuyers.” Elevated rates are keeping prospective home sellers locked in their current homes, unwilling to give up the super-low rates they scored during the pandemic housing boom. Builders are building, but not…