Starts, Permits Showed Surprise Gains Last Month

Housing construction rebounded by more than expected in February, led by a surge in multifamily projects. New U.S. home construction rose for the first time in six months, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Residential starts increased by 9.8% from January to an annualized rate of 1.45 million. This greatly exceeds estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who expected a pace of 1.31 million. Permits for new homes also increased, up by 13.8% to a rate of 1.52 million. Permits offer an indication of how many homes will be built in the coming months. Both multifamily and single-family construction saw gains, though multifamily had the best showing with a 24% increase, the most in almost two years. Rents…

Housing Starts Slid Again In December, But Builders Are Optimistic

Housing construction slid again in December to its lowest point since July, but an increase in single-family starts may signal improvement to come. Residential starts fell 1.4% from November to an annualized rate of 1.38 million, down 21.8% from the same time last year, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the fourth consecutive decline for these data. It was driven largely by a dip in multifamily construction, which is volatile month to month. The picture for all of 2022 was fairly bleak. In the entire year, only 1 million homes were started, down 10.6% from 2021 and the largest drop since 2009. Permits for new homes fell 1.6% to a rate of 1.33 million. Single-family permits…

Starts, Permits Drop For Third Month Straight

Housing construction slid again in November as inflationary pressure and high rates kept demand down. Residential starts fell 0.5% from October to an annualized rate of 1.43 million, down 16.4% from the same time last year, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the third consecutive decline for these data. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal predicted starts would fall to 1.4 million from October’s initial estimate of 1.43 million. Single-family starts dropped 4.1% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 828,000. This is their lowest level since May 2020. Permits for new homes fell 11.2% to a rate of 1.34 million. Single-family permits tanked by 7.1% to their slowest pace since 2020. Permits offer an indication…

Housing Starts Down As Buyers, Builders Pull Back

Housing construction fell sharply in October, another miss for the rapidly constricting housing market. Starts for both single- and multi-family units dropped by 4.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.425 million units, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected housing starts to register a 1.41 million rate after seasonal adjustment. Single-family starts fell by 6.1% from September, and single-family completions were down 8.3%. Building permits dipped 2.4%, an indicator of builders’ pessimism moving into winter, the slowest season for real estate. Permits offer an indication of how many homes will be built in the coming months. Housing is desperately needed, especially single-family units.  Some experts say it could take a decade to…

Home Price Deceleration Breaks July’s Record

Home price appreciation continued to cool in August though growth remained elevated from a year earlier, according to new data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index saw home prices decelerate, posting a 13% annual gain in August, down from 15.6% in the previous month. This is the largest monthly deceleration in the history of the index, pushing July’s record to second place. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, called current trends a “forceful deceleration” of home prices. “These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022 and has been declining ever since,” he said. “As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing becomes more expensive…

New Home Apps Dropped In September, Putting Pressure On Worried Builders

New home mortgage applications dropped sharply in September as buyers backed away from decades-high interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Builder Application Survey for September 2022 found that applications for new home purchases fell 13.2% YOY and 7% from August. Based on that data, MBA predicts that new single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted rate of 637,000 in September. “New home purchase activity declined in September as prospective homebuyers pulled back in response to higher mortgage rates, increased concern about an impending recession, and a broader slowdown in home-price growth,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased almost a full percentage point in the last month, greatly reducing…

Housing Starts Beat Expectations In August

Housing starts surprised the industry with a boost in August, though building permits lagged at their slowest pace the last two years. Starts increased 12.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.575 million units in August, exceeding market expectations of 1.445 million. This is the largest jump since March last year. But while the data may be positive, housing still faces pressure from inflated material costs and rising interest rates. Single-family starts increased by only 3.4%. The unexpected jump was propelled by a 28.6% surge in demand for buildings with five or more units, suggesting builders are betting on the hot rental market to stay. That prospect doesn’t bode well for the homebuilders. Builder sentiment dropped three points in September,…

Housing Starts Plummeted In July

Homebuilding plummeted in July as both homebuyers and sellers continue to lose confidence in the market. Housing starts fell by a shocking 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.446 million units last month, according to new data released by the Commerce Department.  This is their lowest rate since February 2021 and significantly below market expectations of 1.53 million. Last month’s revised data put starts at a rate of 1.599 million units. A drop this big suggests the housing market still has room to contract in the third quarter of this year. Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics called the data “terrible” in a tweet Tuesday. Single-family starts fell 10.1%, their lowest in two years, while starts for units in…

Builder Confidence Drops, Signaling Trouble For The Housing Market

Builder confidence dropped two points in June to its lowest level since June 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders(NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI asks builders for their opinions on current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months, as well as rate their traffic of prospective buyers. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as worse than better. The HMI posted a reading of 67 for the month of June. It is the sixth consecutive month of decline for the index. NAHB’s press release called it a “troubling sign for the housing market.” “Six consecutive monthly declines for the HMI is a clear sign of a slowing housing…

Single-Family Constructions Down In Suburban Markets

Construction of single-family homes fell across several market types in Q1 2022, with an especially large dip in large suburban markets, according to the National Association of Home Builder’s (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). Four-quarter moving average single-family growth rates in large metro suburban counties fell from 18.7% in Q1 2021 to 5.2% in Q1 2022. At the same time, multifamily construction in large metros has jumped after falling during the pandemic. Large metro core counties recovered from a negative 3.6% growth rate to a 17.4% rate. Multifamily construction was largely centered in large metro core areas (36.9% of development), followed by large metro suburbs (25.8%), small metro core areas (23.5%), and other submarkets (13.7%). “Single-family growth rates have…