Pending home sales tumbled in June after a slight increase in May, falling 8.6% month-over-month and 20% YOY. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index posted a reading of 91 last month. A reading of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The PSHI is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. “Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize.” Buying a…
Mortgage loan application volume fell by another 1.8%, the fourth straight week of declines and the lowest level of activity since February 2000, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 1.8%. The adjusted purchase index dropped 1%, while the unadjusted purchase index decreased by 0.4%% and was 18% lower YOY. The refinance index fell by 4% and made up 30.7% of total applications, down 83% from the same time last year. ARM activity dropped to 9.1% of total applications. As affordability challenges continue and potential buyers decide to hold off searching for a home, purchase activity is now inching closer to pre-pandemic levels. “Weakening purchase applications…
Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure starts increased in June but ultimately stayed below pre-pandemic levels, according to Black Knight’s First Look at June 2022 data. The national delinquency rate rose by nine basis points month-over-month to 2.84%. But the three months prior saw consecutive record lows in delinquencies, meaning the boost has little bite. The increases were distributed across all categories. The number of borrowers late by a single day jumped 5%. Those late by 90 or more days increase by a mere 1%, and that comes on the heels of a 21-month streak of improvement. Foreclosure starts rose by 27% but remained down 40% from pre-pandemic levels. However, it does constitute a 441% YOY increase, which Black Knight notes is…
Zonda’s New Home Pending Sales Index for June 2022 finds the housing market cooling to levels seen in February 2020. The New Home PSI posted a reading of 125.5 for June, down 7.5% YOY and 27.9% below cycle highs. It measures new home orders and average sales rate per community. New home sales dropped month-over-month by 0.2%, the fifth straight month of declines. The new home orders component fell 10.5% YOY, while the average sales rate per community component fell 8.2% YOY. “Home sellers and home buyers are adjusting to a new reality in the housing market,” said Ali Wolf, Zonda’s chief economist. “Home sellers are quickly understanding the days of frenzied demand are behind us and it takes an…
Mortgage rates rose from an average of 5.51% to 5.54% last week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.54%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.78%. “The housing market remains sluggish as mortgage rates inch up for a second consecutive week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Consumer concerns about rising rates, inflation, and a potential recession are manifesting in softening demand. As a result of these factors, we expect house price appreciation to moderate noticeably.” Mortgage loan applications are tumbling as buyers are priced out by the combination of increasing interest rates and sky-high home prices. But the AEI Housing Center recently…
Mortgage rates drifted up again last week after plummeting the week prior, rising from an average 5.30% to 5.51%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.51%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.88%. “Mortgage rates are volatile as economic growth slows due to fiscal and monetary drags,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “With rates the highest in over a decade, home prices at escalated levels, and inflation continuing to impact consumers, affordability remains the main obstacle to homeownership for many Americans.” Affordability is at record lows across the country. The average monthly mortgage payment is up 6.2% month-over-month and 51% year-over-year. Low…
Annual single-family home prices rose by 19.4% in Q2 2022. This is down from Q1’s upwardly revised 20.5% but still close to a record high, according to Fannie Mae’s latest Home Price Index. On a quarterly basis, home prices increased by 4.3% between Q1 and Q2. “Home prices maintained a near-historic pace of appreciation in the second quarter, as low levels of housing inventory continued to support price growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “At the end of 2021 and extending into 2022, we believe many homebuyers pulled forward their purchase plans to avoid expected increases in mortgage rates, contributing to demand for homes and strong price appreciation. Given the sharp rise in mortgage…
Mortgage loan application volume fell by 1.7% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 1.7%. The adjusted purchase index dropped 4%, while the unadjusted purchase index increased by 14% and was 18% lower YOY. The refinance index rose by 2% and made up 30.8% of total applications, down 80% from the same time last year. The overall refinance index was 5% lower than the average level reported in June, and refinances are expected to stay low. ARM activity rose to 9.6% of total applications. “Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged, but applications declined for the second straight week. Purchase applications for both conventional and…
Inflation jumped by 9.1% YOY in June, more than analysts predicted and the largest gain since 1981, according to data released by the Labor Department today. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation rising 1.3% month-over-month, its largest jump since 2005. Predictions ahead of the data’s release forecast a 1.1% rise from May and an 8.8% increase YOY. This is the fourth consecutive month that analyst predictions fell short. Another month of skyrocketing inflation suggests that officials will be forced to continue aggressively raising interest rates. But rate hikes have stoked fears of a recession. Strategists at Goldman Sachs recently upgraded their recession probability to 30% from 15%. “We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” Goldman Sachs Chief…
Mortgage rates tanked last week, dropping from an average 5.70% to 5.30%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.90%. “Over the last two weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped by half a percent, as concerns about a potential recession continue to rise,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While the drop provides minor relief to buyers, the housing market will continue to normalize if home price growth materially slows due to the combination of low housing affordability and an expected economic slowdown.” Potential buyers are backing away from the market due to the soaring cost of purchasing…
