By PATRICK LAVERY
When last we heard from the Federal Reserve on interest rates, on June 14, the Federal Open Market Committee agreed not to raise the target range for the federal funds rate for the first time in more than a year.
With the Fed’s next meeting now less than a week away, could Chairman Jerome Powell be preparing to announce one of the hikes that he said in June might still be remaining for this year? Or will the FOMC stick to a holding pattern?
And how are those developments going to impact a U.S. housing market that Powell has continuously characterized as sluggish throughout 2023?
It is predicted that the central bank will deliver a quarter of…
Inflation cooled significantly in June, increasing by only 3% YOY, according to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index.
This is down from a 4% increase the month prior and fully a third less than its peak at nearly 9% last year.
June’s data suggests it’s possible for the U.S. to make a “soft landing” and reach its 2% inflation target without throwing the economy into recession. But it may yet be too early to celebrate.
“This is very promising news. The pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together,” Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist and founding partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives, told the New York Times. “But it’s just one report, and the Fed has been burned by…
Mortgage rates ticked down again, the second consecutive week of declines.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69%, down from 6.71% the week prior.
A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.78%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased, however, up from 6.07% to 6.10%. A year ago, it averaged 4.81%.
“Mortgage rates decreased slightly this week in anticipation of the pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
The pause did come: after ten consecutive increases, the Fed declined to raise interest rates at its June meeting.
“We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of…
By PATRICK LAVERY
The Federal Open Market Committee called a pause on their rate hikes Wednesday, electing to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5% to 5.25% while continuing to significantly reduce securities holdings.
It was not a complete victory lap for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who told reporters at a press conference that the FOMC overwhelmingly expects to raise interest rates “somewhat further” before the end of 2023.
The reason for the future uncertainty in interest rates continues to be inflation, which is still “well above” the Fed’s longer-run 2% goal, according to Powell. The Summary of Economic Projections released concurrently with Wednesday’s announcement kept that 2% target destined for 2025.
A survey…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS
Industry leaders are speculating about what officials at the Federal Reserve will do concerning rate increases during their meeting this week.
In May, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said they were prepared to raise rates again if economic conditions worsened, but hinted at a wait-and-see attitude regarding this month’s meeting. Policymakers may even skip raising rates after a smaller than expected rise in the Consumer Price Index, released on Tuesday.
CNN reporter Matt Egan said the CPI report gives officials the cover they need to hold off on increasing rates this month.
“Investors are becoming increasingly confident that the Fed is going to keep interest rates steady after … 10 consecutive interest rate hikes. The Fed has…
The Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting is just around the corner, and while most experts think the Fed will pause its rate increases, others are wary.
Most analysts expect the Central Bank not to introduce another rate hike at the meeting, scheduled for June 13-14, according to a poll of economists from Reuters. More than 90% of those polled, 78 of 86 total, don’t think another hike is on the horizon. These analysts think the Fed will pause to evaluate the impact of the 500 bps increases they’ve already instituted.
“[Fed Chairman Jerome Powell] expressed his bias in favor of remaining on hold in June … he’s going to stick with that as it gives them an additional month…
By KURT DAVIS JR.
There are some simple life lessons in business: It is hard to be liked by all people and it is hard to be liked all the time.
Leaders at central banks and investment firms know this very well… today’s economic crisis will likely end with a simple reminder.
The Federal Reserve: Essential to Society or The Source of the Problem?
There are few, if any, central bankers who are not taking some public criticism today for raising rates.
For Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the other Fed members, their position cannot be enviable: stop inflation and maintain financial stability.
It is always a tough assignment to raise interest rates (the usual dose of…
By PATRICK LAVERY
Incremental but persistent increases in the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy interest rate have now officially entered a second year, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announcing another quarter-percentage point hike on Wednesday.
The target rate is now 5.25%, up five full points since April 2022. Powell reiterated in his prepared remarks that the Fed’s objective is returning inflation to 2%, its historic target.
Unfortunately, Powell acknowledged, interest rates remain stubbornly high. Powell said that for the 12 months ending with this past March, total Personal Consumption Expenditures prices rose 4.2%, excluding food and energy prices which tend to be more volatile, while core PCE prices were up 4.6%.
“Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of…
By PATRICK LAVERY
The result of this week’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting was not nothing, but neither was it as aggressive a decision as officials at the Federal Reserve might have liked to make.
Once again, the target range for the federal funds rate was raised one-quarter of a percentage point, bringing them up to 4.75% to 5%.
What kind of news that turns out to be for the housing market remains to be seen, but it doesn’t stray too much from what several industry experts told The Mortgage Note last week.
In fact, the 25-basis point hike was exactly what was predicted in TMN’s interview with Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS
The administration worked to assure consumers that the banking system was safe on Monday following the sudden collapse of two financial institutions.
Officials at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced on Friday that Silicon Valley Bank was closed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation. It was the biggest bank failure since Washington Mutual in 2008.
All insured deposits were transferred to the newly-created Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara.
Silicon Valley Bank had 17 branches in California and Massachusetts. As of December 31, 2022, it held approximately $209 billion in total assets and about $175.4 billion in total deposits, according to officials.
On Sunday, FDIC officials announced a similar fate for New York-based…
