Airbnb is predicted to increase its inventory by 25% in 2022, giving it huge leverage to impact the residential real estate market next year, according to analyst Chris Linsell. During a presentation at the 2021 REALTORS® Conference & Expo, Linsell, senior real estate writer for TheClose.com, said Airbnb’s expansion will likely negatively impact housing affordability and inventory. “Airbnb (is) not just selling their product to consumers, they are selling to the providers of the product. They are selling twice without holding their own inventory. This unique model opens up an incredible level of scalability,” he said. “Many of those housing units are going to come from the residential real estate market.” He noted that the impact on residential housing could…
The number of loans in forbearance dropped below 2% for the first time since early in the pandemic, according to Black Knight’s blog, Vision. November brought a surge of forbearance exits, with the number of loans in active forbearance falling by over 100,000 week-over-week, 10.8%. Bank portfolio and PLS loans had the strongest results, down by 15.9% or 59,000. FHA/VA plans saw a decrease of 11.3% (48,000) and GSE loans by 4.8% (16,000). Almost 300,000 borrowers left their plans over the last two weeks. Of all active mortgages, forborne loans now account for 1.9%, including 1.2% of GSE, 3.1% of FHA/VA, and 2.4% of portfolio/PLS loans. November’s numbers so far mimic October’s, which also saw a huge jump in exits…
A typical home spent just one week on the market before going under contract, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors. Their annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers — “real estate’s definitive guide on home buyer and seller trends” — reported on the pace of home sales between July 2020 and June 2021. By comparison, the average in 2012 was eleven weeks. “Buyers moving quickly during the pandemic, coupled with all-time-low inventory, led to a decline in time on market to the shortest ever recorded, which was just one week,” said Jessica Lautz, vice president of demographics and behavioral insights at NAR. “Only a quarter of home sellers offered incentives to entice potential buyers, down from…
Delinquencies dropped for mortgages on one-to-four-unit residential properties in Q3 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The seasonally adjusted rate fell to 4.88% of all outstanding loans, down 59 basis points for Q2 and 277 basis points year-over-year (YOY). The survey asked servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. “For the fifth consecutive quarter, the mortgage delinquency rate declined, commensurate with a decline in the U.S. unemployment rate over the same time period,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The improvement was driven entirely by a decline in later-stage delinquent loans – those loans that are…
Mortgage loan application volume rose 5.5% last week, responding to interest rate dips, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey reported. The Market Composite Index, which measures application volume, fell 5.5% on an adjusted basis. The Refinance Index jumped 7% and was 28% lower than a year ago, rebounding from last week’s drop to its lowest level since July 2021. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 3%, while the unadjusted Purchase Index rose .1% compared to the week before, down 4% from the previous year. Interest rates fell to 3.09% after several weeks on the rise, with the 30-year fixed rate falling 14 basis points over the last two weeks. Applications, especially for refinancing, dropped alongside them. “Although overall activity…
Mortgage credit availability rose only slightly in October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). The index analyzes data from Ellie Mae’s AllRegs Market Clarity business information tool. The MCAI rose to 125.7 by only 0.1, showing credit loosened just a little. The Conventional MCAI increased 0.1%, while the Government MCAI was unchanged. The Jumbo MCAI increased by 4.1%, and the Conforming MCAI fell by 6%. While any increase in credit availability is good, overall credit availability remains low. “Credit availability inched forward in October, but the overall index was 30 percent lower than February 2020 and close to the lowest supply of mortgage credit since 2014,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of…
Consumers continued to feel pessimistic about the housing market in October, reporting mixed feelings about buying and selling homes and worries over the economy overall. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index stayed relatively flat, rising only one point in October to 75.5. The index’s six components increased month-over-month (MOM) but are down 6.2 points year-over-year (YOY.) A somewhat larger group of consumers from last month said it’s a good time to buy a home (30%, +2%) or sell a home (77%, +3%), and report they expect mortgages will increase over the next 12 months. The net share of respondents who say it’s a good time to buy a home rose 3% MOM. The share of respondents who expect home prices…
Forbearances fell for another week, but that does not mean homeowners have completely recovered from their economic losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The total number of forborne loans is down to 2.06% of servicers’ portfolio volume, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The estimated number of homeowners in forbearance plans dropped to around 1 million. “More borrowers who exited forbearance the last week of October went into modifications, a sign that they have not yet regained their pre-pandemic level of income,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. The national median household income has fallen 2.9% from 2019 to 2020, and is now $67,521. It is the first decline since 2011, and early…
The hot housing market has been attributed to historically low-interest rates, Millennials reaching homebuying age, and a desire for spacious living created by the pandemic. Across the industry, experts agree that all of this has been exacerbated by a shortage of houses that started with underbuilding in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Everyone except Ivy Zelman, the housing analyst who foresaw the financial crisis in 2005. In a report, her firm, Zelman and Associates, claims that housing demand is overblown and that the country is already on a path to building too many houses. “The perception that housing is drastically undersupplied and that a strong demographic picture lies ahead is creating a false sense of security,’’ the report…
Some homeowners have opted to sell their houses rather than restart their active forbearance plans, leading to a 13% increase year-over-year in the nation’s supply of affordable homes. “The end of forbearance has forced many lower-income Americans to put their homes up for sale and become renters,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “This has caused the number of affordable homes on the market to surge, helping replenish inventory amid an acute housing shortage. It’s a rainstorm after a long drought, but the drought isn’t over yet.” Forbearance exits picked up in the final week of October, according to Black Knight’s blog, Vision. The number of loans in active forbearance fell by 6.9%, with 85,000 homeowners exiting their plans. Forbearance…
