The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to not raise interest rates at its November meeting came as welcome news to the housing industry, leading to a dip in mortgage rates after a streak of increases. But industry analysts are still concerned about a housing recession.
Analysts at Wells Fargo recently warned that a rate cooldown likely won’t lead to a market boost, citing the overall cost of both building and buying a home.
“After generally improving in the first half of 2023, the residential sector now appears to be contracting alongside the recent move higher in mortgage rates,” economists Charlie Dougherty and Patrick Barley wrote in a research note. “Although mortgage rates may gradually descend once the Federal Reserve begins…
Pending home sales tanked in August, reversing a two-month trend of increases.
NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index fell by 7.1% to a reading of 71.8 in July. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
“Mortgage rates have been rising above 7% since August, which has diminished the pool of home buyers. Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations about the location and type of home to better fit their budgets,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “It’s clear that increased housing inventory and better interest rates are essential to revive the housing market.”
Year-over-year, pending sales dropped by 18.7%. All four U.S. regions saw declines both month-over-month and…
New home sales fell in June as new construction takes heat from rising interest rates, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Sales fell by 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 697,000, compared to May’s revised rate of 715,000. They were up 23.8% from the same time last year, however.
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 432,000, up from last month and representing a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate.
Homebuilders are working hard to keep inventory flowing, providing options for homebuyers.
“Builders are also responding to this shift by bringing slightly smaller homes to market in an effort to meet lower price…
By ERIN FLYNN JAY
It is being speculated that once interest rates drop, a number of buyers will jump into the housing market, causing another surge in prices. We spoke to some industry leaders to get their take.
Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, said this is true.
“Buyers who were priced out of the housing market with rates at nearly 7% will be able to purchase. Due to limited housing inventory, the housing market may see a rebound in multiple offers, which will put upward demand on housing prices,” said Lautz.
She said a significant portion of homes are already selling at above the asking price.
“Currently, there are…
After falling slightly the week before, mortgage rates shot right back up last week, continuing to fluctuate within the 6% range.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.39%, up from 6.35% the week prior.
A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.25%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged at 5.75%. A year ago, it averaged 4.43%.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.39% this week, as economic crosscurrents have kept rates within a ten-basis point range over the last several weeks,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“After the substantial slowdown in growth last fall, home prices stabilized during the winter and began to modestly rise over the last few months.…
Net new listings and contract volume have officially declined for twelve straight months, according to new data from HouseCanary.
HouseCanary’s latest Market Pulse report, which covers 22 listing-derived metrics and compares data between April 2022 and April 2023, shows market activity was significantly hindered in the first month of Q2.
“As we enter May 2023, the real estate market continues to experience uncertainty, with the purchasing market slowdown being one of the key trends observed for over a year now,” Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, said.
Contract and net new listing volume both fell annually, down 17.8% and 39.8%, respectively.
Listings were hit particularly hard by a nearly 45% YOY increase in removals.
Home sellers who…
Existing-home sales dropped for the twelfth straight month in January, down .07% from December and 36.9% YOY, though the declines are milder than in previous months.
Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million from 4.00 million the month prior, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. The South and West saw increased sales month-over-month, while the East and Midwest experienced declines.
All four regions saw annual declines.
“Home sales are bottoming out. Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Inventory remains low, but buyers are beginning to have better negotiating power. Homes sitting on…
Pending home sales rose for the first time since May, breaking a six-month streak of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The Pending Home Sales Index increased by 2.5% between November and December. Year-over-year it dropped by 33.8%, an improvement over November’s 37%.
All four regions saw pending sales fall YOY, but the South and West saw gains month-over-month.
“This recent low point in home sales activity is likely over,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.”
Mortgage rates fell again last week to 6.13%, drawing some buyers back to the market.
Purchase loan applications increased again as…
Existing-home sales dropped for the eleventh straight month in December, down 1.5% from November and 34% YOY, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million from 4.09 million the month prior. Three of the four major regions saw declines month-over-month, though the West’s sales were unchanged from November. All four regions saw annual declines. “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, expect sales to pick up again soon since mortgage rates have markedly declined after peaking late last year.” The 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.15% last week. Limited…
Homebuyers are feeling slightly more optimistic about the market as mortgage rates ease. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) rose 3.7 points in December. Three of its six components improved from the month prior as more consumers said they expect rates and home prices to drop. After weeks of declines, rates inched up in the first week of 2023 but remain well below 7%. Economists at Freddie Mac expect them to fall further as inflationary pressures ease. But home purchase sentiment remains near its all-time low, set in October, and is down 13.2 points YOY. Only 21% of respondents believe it’s a good time to buy a home. And the possibility of additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve…
