By DESMOND LACHMAN
Rudi Dornbusch, the late MIT economist, famously observed that economic and financial crises take longer to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine.
Next year, Mr. Dornbusch’s warning could again prove to be prophetic as far as the commercial real estate sector and the regional banks are concerned. To be sure, four years on since 2020’s Covid pandemic upended the commercial property market, we have yet to have a full-blown financial crisis. However, next year could be the year when the commercial real estate market and the regional banks unravel at a faster pace than we thought possible.
At the heart of the commercial property…
Mortgage rates sank last week, buoying buyers, sellers, and builders’ spirits ahead of the holiday.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.67%, down from the week prior’s 6.95%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.27%.
The 15-year fixed rate dropped as well, down more than 40 bps to 5.95%. A year ago, it averaged 5.69%.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained below seven percent for the second week in a row, a welcome downward trend after 17 consecutive weeks above seven percent,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“Lower rates are bringing potential home buyers who were previously waiting on the sidelines back into the market and builders already are…
Delinquencies rose in November but remain historically low despite some worrying data about FHA and VA loans.
That’s according to ICE’s First Look at November Mortgage Performance, which clocked delinquencies at 3.39% last month. This is down 10 bps YOY and remains 64 bps below pre-pandemic levels.
Serious delinquencies– loans with missed payments more than 90 days late– increased to 459,000 but are 21% lower than the same time last year.
But while loans remain strong overall, FHA delinquencies hit a 9-year high (excluding the immediate aftermath of the pandemic). Early-stage delinquencies for VA loans also surged, reaching their highest non-pandemic levels since 2009.
Recently originated mortgages are suffering the most thanks to the high interest rates of late 2023.…
Existing-home sales increased for the first time in five months as falling rates made homebuying more affordable.
Sales rose by 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.82 million, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors.
While this is a clear improvement from past months, year-over-year sales are down 7.3%, and NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun notes the data is still impacted by the sky-high mortgage rates of the past few months.
“The latest weakness in existing home sales still reflects the buyer bidding process in most of October when mortgage rates were at a two-decade high before the actual closings in November,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “A marked turn can be expected…
By CHUCK GREEN and KIMBERLEY HAAS
The full impacts of legal actions being taken against the National Association of Realtors are still not clear, but industry leaders are advocating for agents, saying they offer valuable expertise.
In October, a Missouri jury ordered the association and two of the nation’s biggest real estate brokerages to pay almost $1.8 billion in damages after they found that commissions were artificially inflated to pay agents. Fresh off winning the verdict, attorneys for the plaintiffs filed a new lawsuit seeking class-action status covering anyone in the country who sold a home in the last five years.
NAR’s President Tracy Kasper said in a statement at the time that they will appeal the liability finding, and…
Mortgage applications slipped as the initial shock of falling rates wore off and buyers once again approached the market carefully.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – fell 1.5%, coming down from the week prior’s 7.4% boost.
Adjusted purchase applications dropped by 1%, while the unadjusted index fell 4% from the week before and was 18% lower YOY.
Americans appear to be losing interest in falling rates, which initially sparked some activity in the market. The 30-year fixed fell to its lowest level since June last week and hit 6.83%.
“At least as of last week, borrowers’ response to this rate move was rather tepid. VA…
Housing starts surged unexpectedly in November, rising to a 6-month high.
New home construction increased by 14.8% last month to an annualized rate of 1.56 million, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. All regions saw increases, with the South experiencing a 16.3% boost while new construction doubled in the Northeast.
Single-family starts soared by 18.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.143 million, their highest level since April 2022.
Permit applications slipped 2.5%, however, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.46 million. Permits offer an indication of future construction.
Notably, the decline was driven by multi-family construction only. Permits for single-family residences actually rose to their highest level since May 2022.
The data offers good news…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS
As consumers turn to mortgage professionals they can trust in their communities, it is predicted that more industry leaders will depend on a retail model to make the most out of the market.
Joe Ludlow, vice president of sales at Advantage Systems, Accounting for Mortgage Bankers, and ApprovalSoft in California, made note of the potential trend during a recent interview with The Mortgage Note.
Ludlow said since it is getting harder for potential homebuyers to get approved for a loan, they are seeking out a local professional to help with the process. As a result, bank branches and loan officers with a desk there are popular again.
“Branches now are becoming more important. Loan officers are becoming…
Cooling interest rates have opened a path for potential buyers heading into 2024, sparking “cautious optimism” for housing professionals.
First American’s Potential Home Sales Model for November 2023 saw its biggest monthly increase since December 2022, up 1.3%. That translates to 5.30 million potential existing home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.
The Potential Home Sales Model measures what the healthy level of home sales should be based on economic, demographic, and housing market fundamentals.
First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming says mortgage rate declines in November fueled the data.
Mortgage rates dipped below 7% for the first time since August last week after the Federal Reserve set the stage for rate cuts in the coming year. That decline,…
Mortgage rates dipped below 7% for the first time since August after the Federal Reserve set the stage for rate cuts in the coming year.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.95%, down from the week prior’s 7.03%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.31%.
It is now down nearly 90 bps in the last six weeks. This lowers the monthly mortgage payment for a $400,000 house to $2,118, down $183 from recent peaks.
The 15-year fixed rate, on the other hand, rose to 6.38%% from 6.29%. A year ago, it averaged 5.54%.
“Potential homebuyers received welcome news this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“Given inflation continues…
