Will The Housing Market Recover In 2024? Probably Not.

As 2023 nears its end, with mortgage rates slowing to the mid-7%s but home prices at record highs, the question on housing analysts’ minds is: Will 2024 be any better? For the most part, experts see a mixed bag coming next year, predicting the beginning of a turnaround that won’t fully flower until 2025. Realtor.com’s 2024 Housing Forcast suggests mortgage rates will moderate and ultimately average 6.8%, hitting 6.5% at year-end, while home prices ease slightly by 1.7%. But the company also predicts worsening inventory shortages as homebuyers cling to their current homes to keep their sub-5% rates. Still, Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, emphasizes the bright sides of softening unaffordability. “Our 2024 housing forecast reveals the green shoots…

Home Prices Soar For Eighth Straight Month

Home prices hit another record high in September as stock shortages spurred competition for well-priced homes. Year-over-year, prices rose 3.8%, up from 2.5% in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index. Prices were up 0.3% month-over-month before seasonal adjustment and 0.7% after. This is the eight straight month of increases. Prices were up month-over-month in 15 of 20 cities, and both the 10- and 20-city composites analyzed saw prices exceed both their year-ago and January levels.  The National Composite surpassed its previous record high with this data, and ten individual cities hit record-breaking prices. “On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 6.1%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in…

New Home Sales Sank In October

New home sales sank in October as mortgage rates priced potential buyers out of the market, according to newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales fell by 5.6% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000, below the rate of 730,000 units predicted by economists. New home sales are up 17.7% year-over-year, however, as lack of existing inventory pushes buyers to new construction. There were 439,000 new homes for sale at the end of October, representing a 7.8-month supply at the current sales rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2023 was $409,300, while the average sales price was $487,000, both down by more…

Rates Slip For Third Week Straight

Mortgage rates slipped for a third consecutive week as Wall Street rallied around positive inflation data. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.44%, a modest decline from the week prior’s 7.5%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.61%. The 15-year fixed rate fell from 6.81%% to 6.76%. A year ago, it averaged 5.98%. “For the third straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation, and lower mortgage rates should likely bring more potential homebuyers into the market.” The consumer price index for October dipped by 0.1% month-over-month and…

Starts, Permits Saw Unexpected Gains In October

Housing starts surged unexpectedly in October, suggesting some relief for homebuyers grappling with tight inventory. Housing starts were up 1.9% last month to a 1.37 million annualized rate, their highest point in three months, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family starts rose a modest 0.2%, adding to a 3.2% month-over-month increase in September, though they remain down 10.6% from the start of 2023. Multifamily starts saw a 6.3% boost to an annualized 402,000 pace. Permits also increased by 1.1% to 1.49 million, a boon after slipping the month prior. Permits indicate how many homes will be built in the coming months. Single-family permits rose 0.5% to 968,000, their highest level since May 2022, while multifamily permits jumped…

Applications Jump Thanks To Rate Retreat

Mortgage applications jumped last week as rates retreated, sending buyers running to complete deals. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – increased by 2.8%. Adjusted purchase applications rose by 3%, while the unadjusted index slipped 0.3% from the week before and was 12% lower YOY. Rates held steady at 7.61% after seeing their largest single-week drop in more than a year the week prior, down 30 bps in three weeks. But while buyers mid-sale benefitted from the cooldown, rates have not dropped enough to entice many off the sidelines. “Both purchase and refinance applications increased to the highest weekly pace in five weeks but remain at…

Delinquencies Rise But Loss Mitigation Efforts Prevent Foreclosure

By KIMBERLEY HAAS Distressed homeowners who get behind on their mortgage bills are avoiding foreclosure. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey was released last week and it showed that delinquencies increased in the third quarter to a rate of 3.62%, up 25 basis points from the second quarter and 17 basis points from a year ago. Marina Walsh, MBA’s vice president of industry analysis, said that despite the increase, later-stage delinquencies – those 90 days or more past due – declined to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2020. “The decline in later-stage delinquencies, along with a foreclosure starts rate of 0.14% – which is well below the historical quarterly average of 0.40% – suggest that distressed…

Americans Must Earn $107K To Buy A Home In 2023

First-time buyers face yet another dream-killing reality in the hot housing market: they need to earn over $100,000 a year to buy a home. The median household income needed to buy a home climbed from $88,000 to $107,000 last year, according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. This is an annual increase of 22%, the largest on record. It’s also just the second time in NAR’s records that number has topped six figures. In line with this, typical down payments have soared for both first-timers (8%) and repeat buyers (19%), the highest since 1997 and 2005, respectively. Unsurprisingly, first-time buyers have taken a hit as affordability worsens, making up just 32% of all…

Buyer Demand Elevated Despite Affordability Concerns

Even as buying a home is getting more expensive by the day, stock shortages are spurring serious competition among the few buyers on the market. New listings fell nearly 5% last month, according to Zillow’s latest market report. While inventory is slowly recovering – 5% is actually a smaller decline than seasonally expected – it is still the lowest number of listings in any October recorded by Zillow since 2018. Still, there are good indicators for inventory. Listings were down 1.2% YOY, the smallest since May 2022, and are down 19% compared to pre-pandemic levels, much better than April’s -35%. In fact, total inventory actually rose 2.6% from September to October, though this was due to a downturn in sales,…

Atlanta Commercial Property Market Adjusting To New Economy

By SCOTT KIMBLER As business models in major cities have changed in the post-Covid economy, Atlanta is holding its own as companies and commercial property owners rethink the modern workplace. Many companies in the metro Atlanta area have altered the workplace to a hybrid model, a work-from-home model, or even a don’t come in at all model, and that is beginning to affect those in the business of commercial real estate ownership. “There have been some delinquencies in the commercial mortgage industry,” said Sergio Garate, assistant professor in the practice of finance and director of the real estate program and Emory University’s Goizeta Business School. “Especially in the Atlanta area, there have been loan delinquents to levels we haven’t seen…