Listings are down more than 15% from last year, another pain point on the market ahead of the typically zippy spring buying season.
HouseCanary’s February Market Pulse Report found that net new listings were 15.3% lower than in February 2023. Overall, inventory is up 11.7% YOY but remains generally constrained, limiting new activity.
This is yet another example of market pressures as spring approaches, usually a busy homebuying season.
“In January, we saw net new listings and contract volumes trend at multi-year seasonal lows. Although those metrics are slightly up versus last month, the housing market is still facing significant pressures. The Federal Reserve has all but confirmed that rates will continue to hover around the 7% mark, continuing to…
Mortgage rates inched up to a two-month high last week, putting pressure on hopeful spring homebuyers.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.94%, up from the week prior’s 6.90%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.65%. This is the fourth consecutive week of increases.
The 15-year fixed fell, however, to 6.26% from 6.29%. A year ago, it averaged 5.89%.
“The recent boomerang in rates has dampened already tentative homebuyer momentum as we approach the spring, a historically busy season for homebuying,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“While sales of newly built homes are trending in a positive direction, higher rates and elevated prices continue to pose affordability challenges…
Mortgage rates have slipped to their lowest levels since May.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.60%, down from the week prior’s 6.66%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.15%.
The 15-year fixed fell to 5.76% from 5.87%. A year ago, it averaged 5.28%.
“This is an encouraging development for the housing market and in particular for first-time homebuyers who are sensitive to changes in housing affordability,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“However, as purchase demand continues to thaw, it will put more pressure on already depleted inventory for sale.”
Rates are the primary concern of most potential buyers, but the market remains crippled by ongoing stock shortages…
Housing starts surged unexpectedly in November, rising to a 6-month high.
New home construction increased by 14.8% last month to an annualized rate of 1.56 million, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. All regions saw increases, with the South experiencing a 16.3% boost while new construction doubled in the Northeast.
Single-family starts soared by 18.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.143 million, their highest level since April 2022.
Permit applications slipped 2.5%, however, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.46 million. Permits offer an indication of future construction.
Notably, the decline was driven by multi-family construction only. Permits for single-family residences actually rose to their highest level since May 2022.
The data offers good news…
Home prices hit another record high in September as stock shortages spurred competition for well-priced homes.
Year-over-year, prices rose 3.8%, up from 2.5% in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index.
Prices were up 0.3% month-over-month before seasonal adjustment and 0.7% after. This is the eight straight month of increases.
Prices were up month-over-month in 15 of 20 cities, and both the 10- and 20-city composites analyzed saw prices exceed both their year-ago and January levels.
The National Composite surpassed its previous record high with this data, and ten individual cities hit record-breaking prices.
“On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 6.1%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in…
Housing starts surged unexpectedly in October, suggesting some relief for homebuyers grappling with tight inventory.
Housing starts were up 1.9% last month to a 1.37 million annualized rate, their highest point in three months, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Single-family starts rose a modest 0.2%, adding to a 3.2% month-over-month increase in September, though they remain down 10.6% from the start of 2023. Multifamily starts saw a 6.3% boost to an annualized 402,000 pace.
Permits also increased by 1.1% to 1.49 million, a boon after slipping the month prior. Permits indicate how many homes will be built in the coming months.
Single-family permits rose 0.5% to 968,000, their highest level since May 2022, while multifamily permits jumped…
Average mortgage rates jumped another 10 bps last week, edging closer to 8%.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.79%, up from 7.63%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.08%.
The 15-year fixed-rate rose to 7.03% from 6.92%. A year ago, it averaged 6.36%.
“For the seventh week in a row, mortgage rates continued to climb toward eight percent, resulting in the longest consecutive rise since the Spring of 2022,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“Rates have risen two full percentage points in 2023 alone and as we head into Halloween, the impacts may scare potential homebuyers. Purchase activity has slowed to a virtual standstill, affordability remains a…
As high rates keep sellers locked in their current homes, new homes are making up an increasing share of the market.
Newly built homes made up almost a third of all single-family homes on the market in Q2 2023 (31.4%), according to a new report from Redfin.
This is up 30.3% YOY and almost double the share from Q2 2019 (17%). It’s a new record for any second quarter in Redfin’s data, though not the highest share ever.
In fact, it’s down from Q1 2023’s share of 33.6%, though Redfin notes the decline follows a normal seasonal trend of new home shares peaking in the winter.
Though builders have slowed home construction, no longer producing the same inventory they did…
Builder confidence has dipped, breaking a seven-month streak of increases, as high rates and shelter inflation put a dent in new home demand.
The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which tracks confidence in the new single-family home market, decreased by 6 points to a reading of 50.
NAHB said that construction costs, lack of buildable lots, and ongoing shortages forced the reading down this month.
“But while this latest confidence reading is a reminder that housing affordability is an ongoing challenge, demand for new construction continues to be supported by a lack of resale inventory, as many homeowners elect to stay put because they are locked in at a low mortgage rate,” NAHB Chairman…
Mortgage applications increased last week, with purchase applications reaching their highest level of activity since May.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – increased by 3%.
Adjusted purchase applications rose by 3%, though the unadjusted index was down 8% from the week before and 21% lower YOY.
Refinances rose, up 3% from the week prior. They remain 32% lower than the same time last year, comprising only 27.2% of total applications. In the past decade, refis averaged 58% of total activity.
The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans rose from 6.73% to 6.75%, breaking a three-week streak of declines.
MBA VP and Deputy Chief Economist…
