Inflation jumped by 9.1% YOY in June, more than analysts predicted and the largest gain since 1981, according to data released by the Labor Department today. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation rising 1.3% month-over-month, its largest jump since 2005. Predictions ahead of the data’s release forecast a 1.1% rise from May and an 8.8% increase YOY. This is the fourth consecutive month that analyst predictions fell short. Another month of skyrocketing inflation suggests that officials will be forced to continue aggressively raising interest rates. But rate hikes have stoked fears of a recession. Strategists at Goldman Sachs recently upgraded their recession probability to 30% from 15%. “We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded,” Goldman Sachs Chief…
With the July Federal Open Markets Committee meeting fast approaching, speculation about another substantial rate hike is running rampant. After June’s historic 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike, the third hike this year and the largest since 1994, analysts are watching the Fed closely. Recession fears are rapidly growing, with 70% of economists expecting it by 2023. But Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was more concerned about high inflation continuing than about the possibility of rising interest rates causing a recession. “Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly there’s a risk,” Powell said this week. “The bigger mistake to make, let’s put it that way, would be to fail to restore price stability.” Some experts…
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group has downwardly revised its full-year 2022 real GDP expectations, along with anticipated home sales and mortgage originations, according to the group’s latest forecast. They now expect full-year real GDP to grow at a reduced rate of 1.3%, a 0.8% decrease from their previous prediction, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and “a slowdown of global economic growth.” The forecast also predicts that Q2 2022 will see growth rebound to 1.6%, a reaction to Q1’s economic contraction of 1.4%. “Financial conditions have tightened significantly, and the economy is slowing faster than previously expected as markets adjust to the Federal Reserve’s tightening guidance,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. Mortgage…
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 on Wednesday in an effort to combat rising inflation, and economists have mixed feelings about its impact on the housing market. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in February, up 7.9% over the last year, to its highest rate in 40 years. As Americans spend more on less, the impact is becoming apparent. Retail sales rose 0.3% in February, a slowdown in the pace of spending that suggested inflation was taking its toll on American consumers. But while rising prices for gas and groceries may burden American households, it’s things like health insurance and housing that are the “silent killers,” according to Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan professor…
Good Morning! Today is Thursday, January 27. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer is retiring. Neil Young is removing his music from Spotify, saying it has become “the home of life-threatening Covid misinformation.” The U.S. rejected Russia’s demands that NATO retreat from Eastern Europe and bar Ukraine from ever joining, but offered other areas of negotiation. The Mortgage Note Reports Rate Increases Into 2023: At least one economist says the Federal Reserve is already behind the inflation curve, and the mortgage industry should expect interest rate increases into 2023. Down, Up, Then Back Down: Mortgage loan application volume fell 7.1% from last week, with refis tumbling 13%, MBA reported. “Appropriate Pricing Policies”: CHLA sent a letter to FHFA Acting Director Sandra…
Investors and economic analysts are closely monitoring Omicron, the Covid-19 variant taking the news cycle by storm, as the country enters the busy holiday season. The question on mortgage professionals’ minds is: how will Omicron affect the housing market? Analysts’ answers are mixed, but the overall trend is cautious optimism. “Right now, we are looking at pretty severe reactions to the omicron news in the stock market,” Tomas Jandik, a finance professor at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, told Realtor.com. “The residential market may be more immune to COVID because of what we have already seen in the past waves of the virus.” “It is unlikely that rates will move down any further due to the new Omicron variant,”…
Good Morning! Today is Tuesday, November 23. The Justice Department will pay $130 million to the survivors and families of victims of the Parkland, FL shooting, settling a lawsuit that alleged the FBI failed to investigate tips in advance of the tragedy. A defense attorney in the Ahmaud Arbery case is under scrutiny after making comments in court about the toes of the deceased. An Airbus A340 plane has landed on Antarctica for the first time. And in mortgage and housing news… Powell Renominated: President Biden renominated Jerome Powell to chair the Fed. Here’s what industry analysts think about the move. Black Knight First Look: The national delinquency rate continued to improve at a slow but steady pace last month, with especially impactful declines for loans…
After weeks of waiting, President Biden announced Monday he is renominating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell to another four-year term. Now analysts are asking what impact another Powell term will mean to mortgage rates and the housing market. The move has been characterized as a return to the status quo in which the Fed chairman is reappointed regardless of their political identity, a tradition former President Trump bucked when he appointed Powell. The Fed chairman question has been on many industry watchers’ minds in the last two weeks. Much was made of Biden’s sit down with Fed Governor Lael Brainard, seen as the most likely candidate if Biden chose to make a change. Brainard has instead been nominated as…
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting September 21 and 22 to discuss the next steps on broad issues related to monetary policy. But in the mortgage industry, there’s only one question on brokers’ minds: What’s going to happen to interest rates? As of today, the best guess is: Not much. Fed-watching is an industry unto itself, and the phrase that’s caught their attention is “substantial further progress.” That’s how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the conditions under which the institution would begin reducing its monthly bond purchases — currently $120 billion — as part of his regime of “qualitative easing.” Shrinking the money supply, or even talk of shrinking the supply, is expected to lead to higher interest rates and,…
In a speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is likely to begin withdrawing some of its pandemic policies before the end of the year. Still, interest-rate increases won’t be coming overnight.
That means the Fed will likely begin cutting the amount of bonds it buys each month before the end of the year. But Powell stressed that these cuts should not be seen as indicators that rate increases are around the corner.
“The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent…
