Banking Troubles Slow Down Rate Hikes

By PATRICK LAVERY The result of this week’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting was not nothing, but neither was it as aggressive a decision as officials at the Federal Reserve might have liked to make. Once again, the target range for the federal funds rate was raised one-quarter of a percentage point, bringing them up to 4.75% to 5%. What kind of news that turns out to be for the housing market remains to be seen, but it doesn’t stray too much from what several industry experts told The Mortgage Note last week. In fact, the 25-basis point hike was exactly what was predicted in TMN’s interview with Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for…

YOY Home Prices Fall For The First Time In A Decade

Home prices have fallen for the first time since 2012 as affordability concerns decimate buyer demand. The median U.S. home sale price dipped by 1.2% to $386,721, the first annual decline in a decade, Redfin reported. “Buyers are struggling because higher interest rates have increased the cost of homeownership, and sellers are struggling because they’re still adjusting to the fact that their home won’t sell for what their neighbors’ did a year ago,” said Andrew Vallejo, a Redfin real estate agent. Prices are cooling, but after soaring to record heights after the pandemic, they’re still historically high. The cities with the biggest declines are pandemic hotspots seeing corrections after their boom moment. Two such cities, San Jose and Austin, saw…

Rate Hikes Up In The Air Thanks To New Economic Data

Mixed economic indicators released this week may stall the Federal Reserve’s plans for another round of aggressive rate hikes. Retail sales fell 0.4% in February as consumers strained under high inflation, Commerce Department data released Wednesday showed. Spending fell in eight of the thirteen groups analyzed, with furniture and department stores seeing the biggest dips. Bar and restaurants saw sales fall by 2.2%, the most in more than a year. But a surprise decline in producer prices provided a glimmer of hope that inflation may be cooling. Wholesale prices were down 0.1%, upending the Dow Jones prediction of a 0.3% increase. The index still increased YOY, but by less than expected. Both of these reports come just a day after…

Officials Try To Reassure Depositors After Closures Of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank

By KIMBERLEY HAAS The administration worked to assure consumers that the banking system was safe on Monday following the sudden collapse of two financial institutions. Officials at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced on Friday that Silicon Valley Bank was closed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation. It was the biggest bank failure since Washington Mutual in 2008. All insured deposits were transferred to the newly-created Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara. Silicon Valley Bank had 17 branches in California and Massachusetts. As of December 31, 2022, it held approximately $209 billion in total assets and about $175.4 billion in total deposits, according to officials. On Sunday, FDIC officials announced a similar fate for New York-based…

Rates Move Closer To 7% After Bleak Powell Comments

Mortgage rates moved closer to 7% after bleak news from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate averaged 6.73%, up from 6.65% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.85%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 5.89% to 5.95%. A year ago, it averaged 3.09%. “Mortgage rates continue their upward trajectory as the Federal Reserve signals a more aggressive stance on monetary policy,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  “Overall, consumers are spending in sectors that are not interest rate sensitive, such as travel and dining out. However, rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing, continue to be adversely affected. As a result,…

Rate Hikes Happening As Spring Homebuying Season Starts

By PATRICK LAVERY Interest rates are rising as the spring homebuying season starts in many parts of the country. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated in his testimony before U.S. lawmakers this week that although the central bank’s policymakers have yet to decide how large their next rate hike will be, “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated” based on the latest economic data. They will be meeting on March 21 and 22. “As I have mentioned in my testimony, the data we have seen so far this year suggests that the ultimate level of rates will need to be higher. We still have some more data to come in between now and…

Average Mortgage Rate Moves Closer To 6%

As economists predicted, the 30-year fixed rate fell again this week, moving closer to 6%. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09%, down from 6.13% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.55%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 5.17% to 5.14%. A year ago, it averaged 2.77%. “Mortgage rates inched down again, with the 30-year fixed-rate down nearly a full point from November, when it peaked at just over seven percent,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  “According to Freddie Mac research, this one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan,…

Powell On Inflation: “We Will Stay The Course Until The Job Is Done”

By KIMBERLEY HAAS After officials at the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, Chair Jerome Powell said that the fight against inflation isn’t over and he does not see them cutting rates this year. During a press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Powell said the disinflationary process has started in some sectors of the economy but they remain cautious. “Certainty is just not appropriate here. Inflation, it’s just hard to forecast inflation. It may come down faster. It may take longer to come down, and yet, our job is to deliver inflation back to target and we will do that, but I think we’re going to be cautious about declaring victory and sending signals that we think that the…

Monetary Policy: How Will The Fed’s Rate Hike Affect Home Affordability?

By KIMBERLEY HAAS With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates seven times this year – and with more rate hikes on the way in 2023 – people are wondering if their policies to cool inflation are unfairly punishing those in the housing market. The Fed’s policy-setting committee raised its benchmark rate a half-point to 4.5% this week. The goal is to reach 2% inflation by controlling monetary policy. The chair of the Federal Reserve opened his press conference on Wednesday saying that he would like to underscore for the American people that they understand the hardship that high inflation is causing. Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy has slowed significantly from last year’s rapid pace. “Recent indicators point to modest…

Rates Decline Again, Further Evidence They May Have Peaked

Mortgage interest rates fell again last week to 6.49%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49%, down from 6.58% the week prior. Weeks of decline have made some analysts optimistic that rates have peaked. “We probably have seen peak mortgage rates unless there is some other major shock to the economy,” Cris deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told NextAdvisor. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also fell from 5.90% to 5.76%. A year ago, it averaged 2.39%. “Mortgage rates continued to drop this week as optimism grows around the prospect that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  “Even as…