Builder Confidence Drops, Signaling Trouble For The Housing Market

Builder confidence dropped two points in June to its lowest level since June 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders(NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI asks builders for their opinions on current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months, as well as rate their traffic of prospective buyers. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as worse than better. The HMI posted a reading of 67 for the month of June. It is the sixth consecutive month of decline for the index. NAHB’s press release called it a “troubling sign for the housing market.” “Six consecutive monthly declines for the HMI is a clear sign of a slowing housing…

Applications Reverse Downward Spiral, Up 6.6%

Mortgage loan application volume reversed course after five straight weeks of decreases, rising 6.6% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased by 6.6%. The adjusted purchase index rose 8%, while the unadjusted purchase index was up by 18% and was 16% lower YOY. The refinance index rose 4% and was down 76% YOY and made up 31.7% of total applications. ARM activity fell to 8.1% of total applications.  Joel Kan, MBA Association Vice President of Economic and Industry, noted that applications rose despite an interest rate explosion last week. The 30-year fixed-rate hit 5.65% last week, up 25 basis points and the highest level…

Delinquencies Reach Another Record Low

Delinquencies dropped to another record low in March, with only 2.7% of all mortgages in the U.S. experiencing some stage of delinquency, according to CoreLogic’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report. Delinquencies were down 2.2 percentage points from March 2021, when they were at 4.9%. The share of early-stage delinquencies, or loans 30 to 59 days past due, was 1%, unchanged YOY, while the share of adverse delinquencies (60 to 89 days past due) was down 0.1% YOY to 0.3%. Serious delinquencies accounted for only 1.4% of U.S. mortgages, down from 3.5% the year prior and a high of 4.3% in August 2020. The share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, known as the Foreclosure Inventory Rate, decreased…

Rate Locks Dropped Again In May As Refis Hit New Low

Rate lock volumes dropped again in May by 4.8% despite interest rate growth slowing, according to Black Knight’s latest Originations Market Report. While conforming 30-year rates rose at the beginning of the month to 5.5%, they cooled by month-end to 5.34%, 7 basis points down from April. Still, lock volumes fell for both rate/term and cash-out refis, down 23.6% and 11.9% respectively. Cash-outs are now down 42.2% from last year. “Ultimately, our OBMMI daily interest rate tracker showed 30-year conforming offerings finishing the month at 5.34%, down 7 basis points from last month. Still, despite this plateau in rates, rate lock volume continued to slide in May, with declines seen across all loan purposes,” said Scott Happ, president of Optimal…

Credit Availability Falls To Lowest Reading Since July 2021

Mortgage credit availability dropped in May to a reading of 120, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). It is the third straight month of decline, and this reading is the lowest level since July 2021. The MCAI analyzes data from ICE Mortgage Technology. A decline in the MCAI shows lending standards tightening, while an increase shows standards loosening. It was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The Conventional MCAI fell 0.4%. The Government MCAI fell 1.3%. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo dropped 1.1% and the Conforming rose 1%. “The index remains more than 30% below pre-pandemic levels, as recent months’ credit tightening has occurred in refinance loan programs,” said Joel…

Mortgage Rates Break Downward Streak, Rising To 5.23%

Mortgage rates broke their downward streak this week, rising to an average of 5.23%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.23%, up from last week’s 5.09%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.96%. “After little movement the last few weeks, mortgage rates rose again on the back of increased economic activity and incoming inflation data,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  “The housing market is incredibly rate-sensitive, so as mortgage rates increase suddenly, demand again is pulling back. The material decline in purchase activity, combined with the rising supply of homes for sale, will cause a deceleration in price growth to more normal…

Applications Drop Another 6.5%

Mortgage loan application volume dropped by 6.5%, the fifth decrease in six weeks, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 6.5%. The adjusted purchase index fell 7%, while the unadjusted purchase index fell by 18% and was 21% lower YOY. The refinance index fell 6% and was down 75% YOY, though refinances made up a higher share of total applications (32.2%, up from 31.5%) as purchase applications dwindle. ARM activity fell to 8.2% of total applications.  “Weakness in both purchase and refinance applications pushed the market index down to its lowest level in 22 years. The 30-year fixed-rate increased to 5.4% after three consecutive declines.…

Only 17% Of Consumers Think It’s A Good Time To Buy A Home

Only 17% of consumers believe it’s a good time to purchase a home as rising interest rates and high home prices push many buyers out of the market, according to Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The May HPSI fell by 0.3 points, remaining relatively steady, but continues to move closer to its 10-year low of 63, recorded in April 2020. The full index is down 11.8 points YOY. Affordability was the main concern of the consumers surveyed. The “Good Time to Buy” indicator dropped to a new low, with 79% of respondents saying it’s a bad time to buy a home. The majority of respondents also said they expect mortgage rates to continue rising in the next twelve months. A…

Morning Roundup (6/6/2022) – 40-Year Mortgages, Another Equity High

Good Morning! Today is Monday, June 6. Russian missiles struck Kyiv, the first attack on the capital in more than a month. A street brawl in Philadelphia this weekend turned into a mass shooting, killing three people. Rafael Nadal beat Casper Ruud in the men’s French Open final. The Mortgage Note Reports 40-Year Mortgages Making A Comeback? Writer Scott Kimbler reports that they are popular again, but experts warn the risk may not be worth the reward. Another Equity High: Home prices have risen 42% since the beginning of the pandemic and have gained 9% in value just since the first of the year, with equity reaching another all-time high. MacArthur Promoted: Salisbury Bank and Trust Company has promoted Andrea MacArthur to Vice President, Mortgage Advisor. And in other mortgage…

Home Equity Reaches Another All-Time High

Home prices have risen 42% since the beginning of the pandemic and have gained 9% in value since the first of the year, with equity reaching another all-time high, according to Black Knight’s latest Mortgage Monitor Report. Black Knight reported that the annual rate of appreciation dropped slightly to 19.9% in April, down from an upwardly revised 20.4% for March. Despite this, rising prices and interest rates have brought about the worst affordability since July 2006. “While a downward shift from 20.4% to 19.9% annual growth is hardly cause for concern, it’s also likely we’ve not yet seen the full impact of recent rate increases. Rather, April’s decline is more likely a sign of deceleration caused by the modest rate…