Mixed economic indicators released this week may stall the Federal Reserve’s plans for another round of aggressive rate hikes.
Retail sales fell 0.4% in February as consumers strained under high inflation, Commerce Department data released Wednesday showed. Spending fell in eight of the thirteen groups analyzed, with furniture and department stores seeing the biggest dips.
Bar and restaurants saw sales fall by 2.2%, the most in more than a year.
But a surprise decline in producer prices provided a glimmer of hope that inflation may be cooling. Wholesale prices were down 0.1%, upending the Dow Jones prediction of a 0.3% increase. The index still increased YOY, but by less than expected.
Both of these reports come just a day after…
As economists predicted, the 30-year fixed rate fell again this week, moving closer to 6%.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09%, down from 6.13% the week prior.
A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.55%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 5.17% to 5.14%. A year ago, it averaged 2.77%.
“Mortgage rates inched down again, with the 30-year fixed-rate down nearly a full point from November, when it peaked at just over seven percent,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
“According to Freddie Mac research, this one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan,…
Mortgage loan application volume increased by 3.8% last week, breaking a multi-week pattern of steep declines, despite rates rising to their highest point since October 2008. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows that the adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, rose by 3.8%. The results include an adjustment for Labor Day. The adjusted purchase index rose 1%, while the unadjusted purchase index increased 11% and was 30% lower YOY. The refinance index rosed by 10% and was 83% lower than the same time last year. Refis made up 32.5% of total applications. “Treasury yields continued to climb higher last week in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where it is expected that they…
Mortgage rates exceeded 6% last week for the first time since 2008, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.02%, up from 5.89% last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.86%. “Mortgage rates continued to rise alongside hotter-than-expected inflation numbers this week, exceeding six percent for the first time since late 2008,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. Inflation rose more than expected in August, up 8.3% YOY, though prices are down some from record highs earlier this year. Analysts had anticipated an 8.1% YOY increase. “Today’s evidence of a peak in US CPI might be welcome but the figure of 8.3% was…
With the July Federal Open Markets Committee meeting fast approaching, speculation about another substantial rate hike is running rampant. After June’s historic 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike, the third hike this year and the largest since 1994, analysts are watching the Fed closely. Recession fears are rapidly growing, with 70% of economists expecting it by 2023. But Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was more concerned about high inflation continuing than about the possibility of rising interest rates causing a recession. “Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly there’s a risk,” Powell said this week. “The bigger mistake to make, let’s put it that way, would be to fail to restore price stability.” Some experts…
March brought another dip in consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan’s index registering its lowest level since August 2011. The March index was revised down to 59.4 from a reading of 59.7 two weeks ago. An index of 100 is equal to sentiment in Q1 1966. A year ago at this time, the index was 84.9. Consumer sentiment is now down 41.6 points from its peak in February 2020 and is even below the lows seen in four of the last six recessions. “When asked to explain changes in their finances in their own words, more consumers mentioned reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past fifty…
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 on Wednesday in an effort to combat rising inflation, and economists have mixed feelings about its impact on the housing market. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in February, up 7.9% over the last year, to its highest rate in 40 years. As Americans spend more on less, the impact is becoming apparent. Retail sales rose 0.3% in February, a slowdown in the pace of spending that suggested inflation was taking its toll on American consumers. But while rising prices for gas and groceries may burden American households, it’s things like health insurance and housing that are the “silent killers,” according to Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan professor…
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Good Morning! Today is Friday, December 7. President Biden accused Donald Trump of spreading a “web of lies about the 2020 election.” The Supreme Court will hear arguments today in cases challenging the Biden administration’s vaccine mandates. Canada’s ban on conversion therapy takes effect today. And in mortgage and housing news… Rates Climb: Mortgage rates rose to their highest level since May 2020, up to an average of 3.22%, Freddie Mac reported. Forbearances Improve: Active forbearance plans dropped by 8% in the first week of January, according to Black Knight’s blog, Vision. December Jobs: The US economy added just 199,000 jobs in December, far below economists’ expectations of 422,000 gains. FHFA Changes Explained: The FHFA this week announced loan-level price…
