Despite an upwardly revised Q3 GDP estimate, Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group has predicted a recession in 2023 and warned it could be worse than expected. The group estimates Q3 GDP will be 2.3% annualized, up from its earlier prediction of 1.3%. However, it says that the boost “is likely to prove temporary” and forecasts Q4 growth to be -0.7% annualized. The revision accounts for “partial normalization in global trade following a historically large trade deficit in the first half of 2022,” which will be overcome by Q4. Unemployment is expected to exceed 5% by the end of 2023 as a result of the recession. The group noted that labor market tightness– which typically contributes to inflationary pressure…
Mortgage loan application volume fell another 2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey. Interest rates rose to 6.81%, their highest point since 2006. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dropped by 2%. The adjusted purchase index fell 2%, while the unadjusted purchase index decreased 2% and was 39% lower YOY. The refinance index dropped by 2% and was 86% lower than the same time last year. Refis made up 29% of total applications. The ARM share of activity dipped slightly from last week as the 5/1 interest rate jumped 20 basis points from 5.36% to 5.56%. “The ARM share of applications remained quite high at 11.7%– just below last week’s…
Austin, TX, has been ranked the best city for working from home, leading a list full of Southern and Western metros. A new SmartAsset study looked at factors such as the number of remote workers, housing costs, and income taxes to determine what U.S. cities offer the most to work-from-homers. Remote work has risen in prevalence from around 5% in 2016 to 17.9% in 2021. In 13 cities, more than a third of the workforce is remote. Some employers are even using remote work as a bargaining chip to offer lower salaries while inflation is high. This type of work is changing how Americans view moving and shifting their priorities when searching for a new home. And it’s not going…
Mortgage credit availability dropped to its lowest level since March 2013 in September, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). The MCAI fell by 5.4% to a reading of 102.5 last month. This is the seventh straight month of tightening lending standards. The Conventional MCAI fell 4.9%. Its component indices also declined, with the Jumbo down 5.8% and the Conforming down 3.6%. The Government MCAI also dropped by 5.8%. This index has fallen in seven of the last eight months, and is now its lowest point since April 2013. Most of these indices have fallen to their lowest levels in more than a year. “With the likelihood of a weakening economy, which would lead to…
Lock volumes dipped almost 10% from August, bringing them down 30% in the last three months and 60% YOY, according to Black Knight’s latest Originations Market Monitor. Purchase locks are 10.2% below pre-pandemic levels. This is the third straight month of lock activity below pandemic norms. The decline in locks coincides with interest rates rising 91 basis points in September to 6.72%, their highest point in 15 years. Refinances made up only 16% of September’s lock activity, a new low. Of that, most were cash-out refis, though they are also down 26.2% from August and 78% YOY. Rate/term locks remained basically unchanged. They are down 93.3% YOY, suggesting they’ve hit a floor now. Purchase lending accounted for most of September’s…
Habitat for Humanity Affiliates in Florida and South Carolina will be able to build more affordable homes after the recent sale of mortgage notes on their behalf. Leaders at CBC Mortgage Agency, a nationally chartered housing finance agency and a source of down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, announced its CRA Note Exchange platform had completed the sale on Sept. 12. CRA Note Exchange enables the sale of Community Reinvestment Act-eligible loans through an online portal to free up capital for additional affordable home construction. Banks and other financial institutions can review, select and purchase loans in specific areas that support their CRA or other lending objectives. The exchange was launched in 2018. Habitat for Humanity is a global nonprofit housing organization…
Mortgage rates shrunk slightly last week, giving borrowers a little breathing room as they inch towards 7%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66%, down from 6.70% just last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.99%. “Mortgage rates decreased slightly this week due to ongoing economic uncertainty,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “However, rates remain quite high compared to just one year ago, meaning housing continues to be more expensive for potential homebuyers.” Mortgage loan application volume tumbled last week, falling to its slowest pace since 1997 as the looming 7% interest rate scared buyers off the market. A recent survey found that…
Buyers are paying record-high down payments thanks to the combination of soaring prices and high competition, but they may see a reprieve soon, according to new data from Redfin. The typical U.S. mortgage borrower in July put down $62,500, up 13.6% YOY and nearly twice the growth in home sales prices. It’s also nearly double the median $32,917 down payment from July 2019, before the pandemic. Down payments have fallen slightly since peaking at $66,000 in May and June, due in part to the cooling market. Just under 59% of buyers who used a mortgage had a 10%-plus down payment, up from 57.5% a year ago but down from a peak of 60.5% in May. “Homebuyers don’t need to make…
Housing affordability is a bigger deal to Americans than the possibility of a recession, according to a new survey by Personal Capital. The survey found that 1 in 4 people have decided to put off buying a home “indefinitely.” Rising mortgage interest rates were the number one concern of respondents, despite the fact that more than 75% said they expect a recession within two years. Gen Z was the generation most likely to say homebuying isn’t currently an option for them, and nearly a quarter called homeownership “unattainable.” Gen Zers overwhelmingly want to own their own homes, with 59% identifying homeownership as a sign of success. But many are worried they may never be able to afford a home if prices continue…
Mortgage loan application volume tumbled last week, falling to its slowest pace since 1997 as rates hit 6.75%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey. Interest rates are now at their highest point since 2006. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dropped by 14.2%. The adjusted purchase index fell 13%, while the unadjusted purchase index decreased 13% and was 37% lower YOY. The refinance index dropped by 18% and was 86% lower than the same time last year. Refis made up 29% of total applications. “The current rate has more than doubled over the past year and has increased 130 basis points in the past seven weeks alone. The steep increase in rates…
