The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to not raise interest rates at its November meeting came as welcome news to the housing industry, leading to a dip in mortgage rates after a streak of increases. But industry analysts are still concerned about a housing recession. Analysts at Wells Fargo recently warned that a rate cooldown…
Despite recent optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve’s “soft landing” strategy, economists at Fannie Mae are still expecting a mild recession next year. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group wrote in a note that mixed economic signals this month make it difficult to guess the near future, but a “modest contraction” in early 2024 remains…
By DESMOND LACHMAN There is good news and bad news for the U.S. housing market. The good news is that by this time next year, mortgage rates will be substantially lower than they are today. The bad news is that by this time next year, the U.S. is more than likely to be in a…
Recession is still on the horizon, but housing may support the economy moving through it, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group. In recent commentary, the group noted that mixed economic data has muddied the waters on the economy’s strength. But recession “remains the most likely outcome” of tightening monetary policy and late-stage…
By CHUCK GREEN To home sellers who agonizingly watched the prices of their abodes recede recently, leaving a nasty gash in profits, there’s little to say but “ouch.” Want a touch of solace? Apparently, the waters are rippling with plenty of others in the same predicament. A first quarter 2023 U.S. Home Sales Report released…
Recent bank failures have created another problem for the housing market: lack of credit. First American’s Potential Home Sales Model– a measure of what a healthy level of home sales should be based on market fundamentals– fell by 2.5% month-over-month in March. Year-over-year, it is down 10.7%, a loss of more than 640,000 sales. The…
Despite an upwardly revised Q3 GDP estimate, Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group has predicted a recession in 2023 and warned it could be worse than expected. The group estimates Q3 GDP will be 2.3% annualized, up from its earlier prediction of 1.3%. However, it says that the boost “is likely to prove temporary”…
Mortgage rates nosedived by 31 basis points last week, dropping below 5% for the first time since April, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.99%. Last week it averaged 5.30%, and a year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.77%. “Mortgage…
Gross domestic product declined for a second quarter, down 0.2% on the heels of Q1’s 0.4% dip, the Commerce Department said. By a common definition, this means that the U.S. has entered into a recession. The National Bureau of Economics, a non-profit that determines when the U.S. is officially in recession, defines it as a…
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