Beyond FICO: Predicting The Ability To Pay A Mortgage

By KIMBERLEY HAAS Building credit is important for people who want to move into homeownership but some industry leaders are working to show lenders that there are alternatives to the traditional FICO score. A recent survey conducted on behalf of the technology company FormFree shows that of the respondents, 40% said that insufficient credit scores are one of the biggest barriers to homeownership. FICO scores are used by a majority of top lenders for their credit risk assessment needs. While 49% of respondents said their credit score should be considered during the home loan process, 53% would prefer that their ability to pay bills on time be factored in. FormFree released its alternative to the traditional credit score model in…

Applications Fall As Rates Stay Put

Mortgage applications decreased last week as rates hovered near 7%. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – decreased by 1.18%, wiping out last week’s 1.1% bump. Adjusted purchase applications fell by 3%, while the unadjusted index dipped 2% from the week before and 23% lower YOY. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans remained the same as last week at 6.87%, driving the decline in activity. The FHA share of total applications saw the biggest change, down nearly 10 bps. These applications fell to a 12.7% share from 13.6%, with an average interest rate of 6.80%, up from 6.77%.  FHA loans tend to do well…

Home Prices Slipped YoY But Rise Monthly

Data released today shows national home prices slipped year-over-year in May but continue heating up in the short term, with month-over-month prices rising. Year-over-year, prices fell by 0.5%, down from -0.1% the prior month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year decline, unchanged from the month prior, as home prices have recently seen a boost. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, noted that regional differences are still “striking,” with the West Coast hubs that saw huge migration during the pandemic having the weakest growth. The Southeast (+2.1%) continues to see strong growth, though this month its top-performer crown was stolen by the Midwest (+2.7%). Looking at cities,…

Rates Drop By 10+ BPS As Prices Surge

Mortgage rates retreated last week, dropping more than ten basis points in a one-week period. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78%, down from 6.96% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.54%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage reversed course as well, down a whopping 24 bps from 6.30% to 6.06%. A year ago, it averaged 4.75%. “As inflation slows, mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Still, the ongoing shortage of previously owned homes for sale has been a detriment to homebuyers looking to take advantage of declining rates.” Existing-home sales saw their most sluggish levels in 14 years in June. At the…

Refis See Improvement, But Purchase Activity Remains Constrained

Mortgage applications increased again last week as rates cooled, though constrained inventory kept purchase activity down. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – increased by 1.1%, improving slightly after the week prior’s 0.9% bump. Adjusted purchase applications fell by 1%, but the unadjusted index was up 24% from the week before and 21% lower YOY. Application activity benefited from a slight reprieve in rates. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans finally retreated, falling from 7.07% to 6.87%. Refinances saw a boost as rates cooled a bit, up 7% from the week prior. They remain 32% lower than the same time last year, comprising only…

Housing Starts Sank In June, But Permits Offer A Glimmer Of Hope

Housing construction declined last month, but the future looks brighter thanks to a bump in permits. New U.S. home construction rose for the first time in six months, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Residential starts fell by 8% to an annualized rate of 1.43 million. This is well below estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who expected a pace of 1.48 million. Permits for new construction also dipped, down 3.7%% to a rate of 1.44 million. Permits offer an indication of how many homes will be built in the coming months. But on the bright side, single-family construction permits in particular saw an increase, up 2.2% from May to the highest pace since June 2022. Builders continue…

The Pros And Cons Of Co-Buying

Co-buying has gained popularity as Americans search for ways to afford a home. But for all its benefits, it also comes at a cost. A new survey from LendingTree found that 29% of Americans would consider co-buying a home with someone other than a spouse or significant other. That number varies by generation, broken down into 36% of Millennials, 25% of Gen Xers, and 13% of baby boomers. Most of those open to co-buying said they would prefer to buy with a family member who wasn’t their spouse (63%), while a good friend or current roommate would suit just over half (57%). Six-figure earners are the most likely income group to consider co-buying (38%), while those making between $35,000 and…

Average Rate Comes Close To 7%

The average interest rates closed in on the 7% mark last week, pushing affordability further out of reach for many Americans. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96%, up from 6.81% the week prior in the second week of 10+ bps jumps. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.51%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage shot up as well, from 6.24% to 6.30%. A year ago, it averaged 4.67%. “Incoming data suggest that inflation is softening, falling to its lowest annual rate in more than two years. However, increases in housing costs, which account for a large share of inflation, remain stubbornly high, mainly due to low inventory relative to demand,” said…

Prediction: House Prices To Hold Up Into 2024

By KIMBERLEY HAAS Buyers waiting on the sidelines for home prices to drop may be out of luck this year. During a webinar on Thursday afternoon, Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, said that by now it has been clear enough for long enough that even the most strident of bubble-bursters recognizes that the housing market has held up well despite gloomy predictions walking into 2023. Simonsen said the results have been surprising. “Very few of us forecast what was going to happen, and forecasts are always tricky, but the key is that those of us watching the data right now, and those of us on this webinar right now, are those who have been able to pay…

June’s Inflation Slip Bodes Well For Homebuyers

Inflation cooled significantly in June, increasing by only 3% YOY, according to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index. This is down from a 4% increase the month prior and fully a third less than its peak at nearly 9% last year. June’s data suggests it’s possible for the U.S. to make a “soft landing” and reach its 2% inflation target without throwing the economy into recession. But it may yet be too early to celebrate. “This is very promising news. The pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together,” Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist and founding partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives, told the New York Times. “But it’s just one report, and the Fed has been burned by…