Applications Plummet As Rates Rise Again

Mortgage applications slipped again last week as rates neared 7%, with purchase apps falling to their lowest level since the beginning of June. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – decreased by 3%, adding to last week’s 1.18% decline. Adjusted purchase applications fell by 3%, while the unadjusted index dipped 3% from the week before and 26% lower YOY. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans rose from 6.87% to 6.93%, pushing homeownership farther out of reach for many Americans. “The decline in purchase activity was driven mainly by weaker conventional purchase application volume, as limited housing inventory and rates still close to 7% are…

Prices Increased In July While Listings Tanked

Listings took a hit in July, but both listed and closed prices saw positive YOY growth, according to new data from HouseCanary. The company’s latest Market Pulse report found that net new listings dwindled in July, down 40.3% YOY. The number of properties that went under contract also fell by 13.4% from the same time last year. “In June, the housing market initially showed signs of resilience, but these reversed as we continued to face the effects of rate hikes initiated in March 2022,” said Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary. “July has followed suit with stagnant performance as the Federal Reserve implemented another rate increase and potential homebuyers remained cautious amidst market uncertainties.” New listing volume…

Homeowners Are Twice As Likely To Sell If They Have a 5%+ Rate

As high mortgage rates make homebuying increasingly unaffordable, current homeowners with rates above 5% are nearly twice as likely to sell their homes than those with lower rates. With 90% of mortgage holders currently locked into sub-6% rates, most homeowners would need to remortgage their new home at a higher rate to buy a new house. As a result, existing-home sales are stagnating and Americans report feeling trapped by their finances. A new analysis from Zillow found that the threshold rate for buying and selling appears to be 5%. Homeowners with rates under 5% are very unlikely to say they plan to sell their home in the next three years, while those above that mark take the opposite stance. The…

Home Sales Reflect Impact Of Rates, Lack Of Inventory

New home sales fell in June as new construction takes heat from rising interest rates, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales fell by 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 697,000, compared to May’s revised rate of 715,000. They were up 23.8% from the same time last year, however. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 432,000, up from last month and representing a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate. Homebuilders are working hard to keep inventory flowing, providing options for homebuyers. “Builders are also responding to this shift by bringing slightly smaller homes to market in an effort to meet lower price…

Mortgage Rates Increase Again Putting Pressure On Buyers

Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, inching up after falling the week prior. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.81%, up from 6.78%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.30%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also increased, up to 6.11% from 6.06%. A year ago, it averaged 4.58%. “Higher interest rates continue to dampen activity in interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing. However, overall U.S. consumer confidence is unwavering, surging to a two-year high in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July 2023,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Rising consumer confidence often leads to greater spending, which could drive more consumers into the housing market.” Consumers believe that…

Beyond FICO: Predicting The Ability To Pay A Mortgage

By KIMBERLEY HAAS Building credit is important for people who want to move into homeownership but some industry leaders are working to show lenders that there are alternatives to the traditional FICO score. A recent survey conducted on behalf of the technology company FormFree shows that of the respondents, 40% said that insufficient credit scores are one of the biggest barriers to homeownership. FICO scores are used by a majority of top lenders for their credit risk assessment needs. While 49% of respondents said their credit score should be considered during the home loan process, 53% would prefer that their ability to pay bills on time be factored in. FormFree released its alternative to the traditional credit score model in…

Applications Fall As Rates Stay Put

Mortgage applications decreased last week as rates hovered near 7%. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – decreased by 1.18%, wiping out last week’s 1.1% bump. Adjusted purchase applications fell by 3%, while the unadjusted index dipped 2% from the week before and 23% lower YOY. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans remained the same as last week at 6.87%, driving the decline in activity. The FHA share of total applications saw the biggest change, down nearly 10 bps. These applications fell to a 12.7% share from 13.6%, with an average interest rate of 6.80%, up from 6.77%.  FHA loans tend to do well…

Home Prices Slipped YoY But Rise Monthly

Data released today shows national home prices slipped year-over-year in May but continue heating up in the short term, with month-over-month prices rising. Year-over-year, prices fell by 0.5%, down from -0.1% the prior month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year decline, unchanged from the month prior, as home prices have recently seen a boost. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, noted that regional differences are still “striking,” with the West Coast hubs that saw huge migration during the pandemic having the weakest growth. The Southeast (+2.1%) continues to see strong growth, though this month its top-performer crown was stolen by the Midwest (+2.7%). Looking at cities,…

Rates Drop By 10+ BPS As Prices Surge

Mortgage rates retreated last week, dropping more than ten basis points in a one-week period. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78%, down from 6.96% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.54%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage reversed course as well, down a whopping 24 bps from 6.30% to 6.06%. A year ago, it averaged 4.75%. “As inflation slows, mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Still, the ongoing shortage of previously owned homes for sale has been a detriment to homebuyers looking to take advantage of declining rates.” Existing-home sales saw their most sluggish levels in 14 years in June. At the…

Refis See Improvement, But Purchase Activity Remains Constrained

Mortgage applications increased again last week as rates cooled, though constrained inventory kept purchase activity down. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – increased by 1.1%, improving slightly after the week prior’s 0.9% bump. Adjusted purchase applications fell by 1%, but the unadjusted index was up 24% from the week before and 21% lower YOY. Application activity benefited from a slight reprieve in rates. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans finally retreated, falling from 7.07% to 6.87%. Refinances saw a boost as rates cooled a bit, up 7% from the week prior. They remain 32% lower than the same time last year, comprising only…