By KIMBERLEY HAAS
Potential buyers patiently waiting for a surge in inventory before jumping into the housing market may be out of luck this fall.
Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, said during a webinar on Thursday that there are no signs of such a thing happening anytime soon.
“There is no sign anywhere in the data of any surge in inventory,” Simonsen said. “So if you’ve got a buyer that’s like ‘I’m waiting for the big crash to come,’ the question is how long are you going to wait? Because it could come, maybe in 2025, but there’s no sign in the data right now of any of that coming.”
Simonsen has said that he expects 2023…
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in more than 20 years last week, breaking 7% on average and adding extra weight to Americans’ heavy housing burden.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.09%, up from 6.96%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.13%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also increased, up to 6.46% from 6.34%. A year ago, it averaged 4.55%.
“The economy continues to do better than expected and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved up, causing mortgage rates to climb,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
These are the highest rates since April of 2002. In October and November of last year, rates reached 7.08%.
“The last time…
As high rates keep sellers locked in their current homes, new homes are making up an increasing share of the market.
Newly built homes made up almost a third of all single-family homes on the market in Q2 2023 (31.4%), according to a new report from Redfin.
This is up 30.3% YOY and almost double the share from Q2 2019 (17%). It’s a new record for any second quarter in Redfin’s data, though not the highest share ever.
In fact, it’s down from Q1 2023’s share of 33.6%, though Redfin notes the decline follows a normal seasonal trend of new home shares peaking in the winter.
Though builders have slowed home construction, no longer producing the same inventory they did…
Mortgage applications slipped slightly last week as rates rose again.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – fell by 0.8%, a much softer decline than the week prior’s 3.1% drop.
MBA attributes recent declines to rising rates. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans rose from 7.09% to 7.16%, pushing homeownership farther out of reach for many Americans. This is the third straight week of increases.
Adjusted purchase applications fell by 0.2%, while the unadjusted index dipped 2% from the week before and was 26% lower YOY.
Refinances continued to be hobbled by the high rate environment, down by 2% and 35% lower than the…
Builder confidence has dipped, breaking a seven-month streak of increases, as high rates and shelter inflation put a dent in new home demand.
The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which tracks confidence in the new single-family home market, decreased by 6 points to a reading of 50.
NAHB said that construction costs, lack of buildable lots, and ongoing shortages forced the reading down this month.
“But while this latest confidence reading is a reminder that housing affordability is an ongoing challenge, demand for new construction continues to be supported by a lack of resale inventory, as many homeowners elect to stay put because they are locked in at a low mortgage rate,” NAHB Chairman…
Rate lock volumes sank in July as mortgage rates exceeded 7% for the first time since November 2022.
Black Knight’s Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices for July found that 30-year conforming rates cross 7% early in the month before bouncing down and up again, ultimately ending the month at 6.88%.
In line with rising rates, lock volumes dipped 7% from June.
“While they moved around a bit in July, there was no escaping the fact that conforming 30-year rates topped 7% in July for the first time since they spiked last fall,” said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research and strategy at Black Knight.
“On both a practical and psychological level, that put further downward pressure on mortgage demand.…
Mortgage delinquencies improved in the second quarter of 2023, but homeowners face increasing credit stress as the year drags on.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.37% of all loans outstanding at the end of Q2 2023, down 9 bps from Q1 and 27 bps YOY.
This is the lowest level on MBA’s record, which dates back to 1979.
“Buoyed by a resilient job market, homeowners are continuing to make their mortgage payments,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis.
Foreclosure actions also dipped by 3 bps to 0.13%, and foreclosure inventory is down from last quarter.
But Walsh pointed…
Mortgage rates increased for a third consecutive week, pushing averages closer to 7% and adding pressure to buyers.
Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96%, up from 6.90%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.22%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also increased, up to 6.34% from 6.25%. A year ago, it averaged 4.59%.
“There is no doubt continued high rates will prolong affordability challenges longer than expected, particularly with home prices on the rise again,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.“However, upward pressure on rates is the product of a resilient economy with low unemployment and strong wage growth, which historically has kept purchase demand solid.”
Demand has been sluggish…
Mortgage applications dipped last week as rates hit their highest level since November 2022.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – decreased by 3.1%, adding to the week prior’s 3% decline.
Adjusted purchase applications fell by 3%, while the unadjusted index dipped 3% from the week before and 27% lower YOY.
The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans rose from 6.93% to 7.09%, pushing homeownership farther out of reach for many Americans.
Refinances slipped by 3% and remain 32% lower than the same time last year, making up 28.7% of total applications. In the past decade, refis averaged 58% of total activity.
“Treasury yields rates…
Despite inflation, debt, and high housing costs, Americans are still hoping to move out of their states.
That’s the conclusion reached by Realtor.com analysts when they scoured their listing page views. In Q2, 60.3% of all page views from the top 100 metros went to homes outside of the metros where shoppers actually live. This is up both from Q1 and the same time last year.
Shoppers in the ultra-expensive West were the most likely to look for homes elsewhere, followed by the Northeast.
On a city-by-city basis, the usual suspects are topping the list of most popular destinations.
Phoenix took the number one spot despite having the highest average home price of the bunch and news-making 100+ degree temperatures.…
