Origination activity continues to sink as the market corrects, with refinances seeing major drops. Black Knight’s October 2022 Originations Market Monitor report found that rate lock dollar volume dropped 14.3% month-over-month to its lowest level since February 2019. Refinances have been hit especially hard, making up just 14% of all origination activity in October. Cash-out refis, which had previously seemed resilient due to widespread equity gains, fell 25.1% from September and are down 83.6% YOY. Rate/term refis sank an additional 15.7% and are now down 92.6% YOY. “With interest rates now at their highest level in 20 years, the refi market is rapidly approaching a bottom,” said Scott Happ, president of Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight. “Indeed, our…
Homeowner equity saw a contraction in Q3 2022 as dropping prices are finally taking their toll, according to Black Knight’s latest Mortgage Monitor Report. Home prices are cooling at a slower pace than they have been in the last few months, but the impact of those price drops is catching up to homeowners basking in record-high equity levels. Equity is down $1.3 trillion from Q2, and close to $1.5 trillion from its peak in May. This is the largest quarterly drop by dollar value ever recorded “by far,” Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske noted. By percentage, it’s the biggest decline since 2009. “As we reported at the time, while hitting a record high in Q2, total homeowner…
Prepayment activity dropped to a nearly 22-year low in September as interest rates rose to nearly 7%. According to Black Knight’s September 2022 First Look. prepayment activity slid by 14.9% to a single-month mortality rate of 0.57% in September, besting January 2019’s record of 0.59%. It’s the lowest level since November 2000. Inflation is a factor in low prepayment activity, says Jacob Channel, LendingTree’s senior economic analyst. “Since the start of the year, inflation has increased significantly and as a result, many households likely have less cash that they can allocate toward non-necessities like putting extra money toward their mortgage payment,” he told MarketWatch. Black Knight also reported that the national delinquency rate fell 0.2% from August to 2.78%. This…
Lock volumes dipped almost 10% from August, bringing them down 30% in the last three months and 60% YOY, according to Black Knight’s latest Originations Market Monitor. Purchase locks are 10.2% below pre-pandemic levels. This is the third straight month of lock activity below pandemic norms. The decline in locks coincides with interest rates rising 91 basis points in September to 6.72%, their highest point in 15 years. Refinances made up only 16% of September’s lock activity, a new low. Of that, most were cash-out refis, though they are also down 26.2% from August and 78% YOY. Rate/term locks remained basically unchanged. They are down 93.3% YOY, suggesting they’ve hit a floor now. Purchase lending accounted for most of September’s…
Home prices fell for a second consecutive month in August, with prices seeing the sharpest contractions in more than 13 years. Black Knight’s latest Mortgage Monitor Report showed huge price drops month-over-month and stalling inventory levels. Its Home Price Index saw prices decline 0.98%, with the median home price now 2% off its June peak. July’s 10.5% dip and August’s 0.98% are the largest one-month price drops since the Great Recession and are in the top eight largest dips ever recorded. “Either one of them would have been the largest single-month price decline since January 2009 – together they represent two straight months of significant pullbacks after more than two years of record-breaking growth,” Black Knight Data & Analytics President…
The historically low delinquency rate dropped further in August, closing in on May 2022’s record low, but rising foreclosure starts may cause it to increase, according to Black Knight’s First Look at August 2022 mortgage data. Nationally, delinquencies dropped 3.6% in August to 2.79%. This is just four basis points above May’s record. Improvements were seen across the spectrum of borrowers, with the number of those owing only a single late payment down 4%. Those 90 or more days delinquent fell by 4.5%. Cure activity also increased, with 62,000 seriously delinquent loans curing to current status. Cure rates refer to loans that were delinquent in the prior month but are now current. Start activity rose 15% from July, though it…
Mortgage loan application volume fell last week, with both refis and purchase applications falling as interest rates hit their highest point since mid-June, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 0.8%. The adjusted purchase index fell 1%, while the unadjusted purchase index dropped 3% and was 23% lower YOY. The refinance index dropped by 1% and made up 30.7% of total applications, down 83% from the same time last year. “Mortgage rates moved higher over the course of last week as markets continued to re-assess the prospects for the economy and the path of monetary policy, with expectations for short-term rates to move and stay higher…
Mortgage loan application volume rose 1.2% last week when rates took a downward turn, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 1.2%. Both the adjusted and unadjusted purchase indices rose 1%. The unadjusted index was 16% lower YOY. The refinance index rose by 2% and made up 30.8% of total applications, down 82% from the same time last year. ARM activity dropped from 9.1% to 8.4% of total applications. “Mortgage rates declined last week following another announcement of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, with the likelihood of more rate hikes to come. Treasury yields dropped as a result, as investors continue to expect a…
Home price growth saw the largest single-month slowdown on record since at least the 1970s in June, coinciding with a huge increase in inventory, according to Black Knight’s most recent Mortgage Monitor Report. Annual home price growth fell from 19.3% to 17.3% between May and June. “For context, during the 2006 downturn the strongest single-month slowing was 1.19 percentage points – about what we saw last month – and June topped that by 66%,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske. However, while the slowdown was historic, home price growth would need to fall at this pace for a while yet before annual price appreciation returned to 5%. “Still, while this was the sharpest cooling on record nationally,…
Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure starts increased in June but ultimately stayed below pre-pandemic levels, according to Black Knight’s First Look at June 2022 data. The national delinquency rate rose by nine basis points month-over-month to 2.84%. But the three months prior saw consecutive record lows in delinquencies, meaning the boost has little bite. The increases were distributed across all categories. The number of borrowers late by a single day jumped 5%. Those late by 90 or more days increase by a mere 1%, and that comes on the heels of a 21-month streak of improvement. Foreclosure starts rose by 27% but remained down 40% from pre-pandemic levels. However, it does constitute a 441% YOY increase, which Black Knight notes is…
