By ERIN FLYNN JAY and KIMBERLEY HAAS
As business models continue to change in the post-Covid economy, some market experts are predicting a commercial real estate crash while others are saying there could be a revival in investment opportunities.
Desmond Lachman, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow, recently wrote that high vacancy rates have already caused commercial property prices to decline. At the same time, property owners need to roll over around $500 billion in maturing loans at higher interest rates.
Lachman said this spells trouble for the banking sector in general and the regional banks in particular. He predicted commercial real estate troubles could lead to the failure of 385 regional banks.
“With as much as 18% of their…
The Mortgage Bankers Association has once again adjusted its commercial and multifamily lending expectations downward as economic uncertainty continues to constrain the market.
MBA’s latest forecast shows commercial and multifamily borrowing falling 20% in 2023 to $654 billion, down from $816 billion in 2022.
This is a $9 billion reduction from its January prediction.
Multifamily on its own accounts for a 14% drop, slipping from $437 billion in 2022 to $375 billion this year. Apartment investment sales declined at the end of 2022 in response to the Central Bank raising interest rates.
“Higher interest rates, uncertainty about property values, and questions about the outlook for the cash flows of some properties led to a slowdown in commercial real estate transactions…
Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations rose 72% YOY in Q1 2022, though they were down 39% from Q4 2021 due to seasonality trends, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. “The strong momentum in commercial and multifamily borrowing and lending at the end of 2021 carried into the first quarter,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “The continued growth in lending activity is the result of the ongoing strong demand for certain property types like industrial and multifamily, as well as renewed interest in other property types that saw more dramatic declines during the early stages of the pandemic, such as hotel and retail.” Demand for hotel…
Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations jumped in 2021 and are expected to continue booming in 2022, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported at its 2022 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo. Originations rose 79% YOY in Q4 2021 and 44% from Q3. A preliminary measure of commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers’ originations volumes found 2021 activity to be 67% higher than 2020’s. “The fourth quarter of 2021 was a record end to a record year of borrowing and lending backed by commercial and multifamily properties,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Part of the growth from 2020 was a bounce-back from the worst of the recession. However, rebounding property fundamentals and strong valuations, record sales…
Delinquencies on commercial and multifamily mortgages fell in Q3 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. Loans delinquent by more than 90 days or in non-accrual fell by 0.06 points in Q2 to 0.69% for banks and thrifts. Life company portfolios saw a decrease of 0.01 to 0.04% for loans 60 or more days late. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac delinquencies of 60 or more days fell to 0.42% and 0.12%, respectively. For CMBS, the delinquency rate for 30 or more days or in REO fell 0.82 percentage points to 4.86%. “Commercial mortgage delinquency rates for every major capital source have come down since the early months of the pandemic,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President…
