By ERIN FLYNN JAY and KIMBERLEY HAAS
As business models continue to change in the post-Covid economy, some market experts are predicting a commercial real estate crash while others are saying there could be a revival in investment opportunities.
Desmond Lachman, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow, recently wrote that high vacancy rates have already caused commercial property prices to decline. At the same time, property owners need to roll over around $500 billion in maturing loans at higher interest rates.
Lachman said this spells trouble for the banking sector in general and the regional banks in particular. He predicted commercial real estate troubles could lead to the failure of 385 regional banks.
“With as much as 18% of their…
By CHUCK GREEN
Does anyone need some elbow room?
When COVID appeared to seize control over, well, nearly everything, there seemed to be ample space in offices – including those related to the mortgage industry – across the country. Desks? It was almost as though some hadn’t been occupied in decades.
That scenario is gradually changing. According to the Spring 2023 U.S. Office Occupier Sentiment Survey by CBRE, 65% of respondents say their companies are requiring that employees return to the office.
71% of financial and professional services company respondents said they are required to be back in the office, and most of the companies they work for expect attendance for more than half of the week.
So should mortgage…
By CHUCK GREEN Home sweet… multifamily home construction? If, well, the spare bedroom fits. And that it seems to do in light of a new report from Construction Coverage showing a spike in construction of multifamily homes in the U.S. With a jump in multifamily housing projects, home building in the U.S. catapulted to a nine-month high last December, according to Reuters. There was a 2.4% hike to a rate of 737,000 units among multifamily homes under construction. “As long as supply chains remain stressed, builders will struggle to complete projects, slowing sales and likely limiting growth in the supply of new homes,” said Ben Ayers, Senior Economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio. Earlier in the year, addressing the International Builders’ Show in…
Delinquencies on commercial and multifamily mortgages fell in Q4 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. Outstanding loan balances that were current on their payments rose from 96.7% to 97%, with only 1.9% 90 or more days delinquent or in REO, down from 2.2%. Loans 60-90 and 30-60 days delinquent saw no change, at 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Loans that were less than 30 days delinquent fell 0.1% to 0.7%. Lodging and retail properties continued to be the most delinquent but saw improvement in Q4. For lodging loans, delinquencies fell 3.5% to 10.5%, while delinquent retail loans fell from 8.2% to 7.6%. CMBS loans also saw improvement, with 5.7% of balances non-current, down from 7.2% in…
