Morning Roundup (6/16/2022) – Troubling Signs For The Housing Market

Good Morning! Today is Thursday, June 16. The Justice Department charged the Buffalo shooting suspect with hate crimes. A lawyer advising Donald Trump claimed to know about a “heated fight” among Supreme Court justices over whether to hear 2020 election arguments. The Mortgage Note Reports Will Biden’s Plan Work?: Biden’s Housing Supply Action Plan is designed to ease the challenges of housing costs over time by increasing inventory, but will it work? Builder Confidence Falls: Builder confidence dropped two points in June to its lowest level since June 2020, the sixth consecutive month of declines and a “troubling sign for the housing market.” And in other mortgage and housing news… 75 Point Hike: The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5%-1.75%, the biggest increase since…

Builder Confidence Drops, Signaling Trouble For The Housing Market

Builder confidence dropped two points in June to its lowest level since June 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders(NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI asks builders for their opinions on current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months, as well as rate their traffic of prospective buyers. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as worse than better. The HMI posted a reading of 67 for the month of June. It is the sixth consecutive month of decline for the index. NAHB’s press release called it a “troubling sign for the housing market.” “Six consecutive monthly declines for the HMI is a clear sign of a slowing housing…

Manchester Tops Hottest Housing Markets As More Affordable Northeast Metros Attract Buyers

The city of Manchester in New Hampshire is May’s hottest housing market, ranking first for the 10th time in the past year, Realtor.com reported. Realtor.com’s monthly Hottness ranking looks at market demand, as measured by unique viewers per property on its website, and the pace of the market as measured by the number of days a listing remains active on Realtor.com. The Northeast dominated the top 20 hottest markets, with multiple cities in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Wisconsin also made its way onto the list. Manchester took the top spot for the first time in 2020 and has been number one 15 times since then. The Northeast has had the least price hikes, which likely plays a role…

Applications Reverse Downward Spiral, Up 6.6%

Mortgage loan application volume reversed course after five straight weeks of decreases, rising 6.6% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey shows. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased by 6.6%. The adjusted purchase index rose 8%, while the unadjusted purchase index was up by 18% and was 16% lower YOY. The refinance index rose 4% and was down 76% YOY and made up 31.7% of total applications. ARM activity fell to 8.1% of total applications.  Joel Kan, MBA Association Vice President of Economic and Industry, noted that applications rose despite an interest rate explosion last week. The 30-year fixed-rate hit 5.65% last week, up 25 basis points and the highest level…

Delinquencies Reach Another Record Low

Delinquencies dropped to another record low in March, with only 2.7% of all mortgages in the U.S. experiencing some stage of delinquency, according to CoreLogic’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report. Delinquencies were down 2.2 percentage points from March 2021, when they were at 4.9%. The share of early-stage delinquencies, or loans 30 to 59 days past due, was 1%, unchanged YOY, while the share of adverse delinquencies (60 to 89 days past due) was down 0.1% YOY to 0.3%. Serious delinquencies accounted for only 1.4% of U.S. mortgages, down from 3.5% the year prior and a high of 4.3% in August 2020. The share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, known as the Foreclosure Inventory Rate, decreased…

Rate Locks Dropped Again In May As Refis Hit New Low

Rate lock volumes dropped again in May by 4.8% despite interest rate growth slowing, according to Black Knight’s latest Originations Market Report. While conforming 30-year rates rose at the beginning of the month to 5.5%, they cooled by month-end to 5.34%, 7 basis points down from April. Still, lock volumes fell for both rate/term and cash-out refis, down 23.6% and 11.9% respectively. Cash-outs are now down 42.2% from last year. “Ultimately, our OBMMI daily interest rate tracker showed 30-year conforming offerings finishing the month at 5.34%, down 7 basis points from last month. Still, despite this plateau in rates, rate lock volume continued to slide in May, with declines seen across all loan purposes,” said Scott Happ, president of Optimal…

Morning Roundup (6/10/2022) – Lending Activity Drops

Good Morning! Today is Friday, June 10. Ukraine called for more arms from the West. The U.S. sped up its deportations of Haitian migrants last month, expelling nearly 4,000. A police officer in Grand Rapids was charged with murder over the shooting of Patrick Lyoya, a Black man. The Mortgage Note Reports Not Done Yet: Mat Ishbia’s bid to become part-owner of the Denver Broncos got sacked by the deep pockets of Rob Walton, an heir to the legendary Walmart fortune. But that doesn’t mean the Chief Executive at United Wholesale Mortgage is out of the game. Lending Activity Down: Mortgage credit availability dropped in May to a reading of 120, the third straight month of decline and the lowest reading since July 2021. Rates Increase: Mortgage rates broke their downward…

Credit Availability Falls To Lowest Reading Since July 2021

Mortgage credit availability dropped in May to a reading of 120, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). It is the third straight month of decline, and this reading is the lowest level since July 2021. The MCAI analyzes data from ICE Mortgage Technology. A decline in the MCAI shows lending standards tightening, while an increase shows standards loosening. It was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The Conventional MCAI fell 0.4%. The Government MCAI fell 1.3%. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo dropped 1.1% and the Conforming rose 1%. “The index remains more than 30% below pre-pandemic levels, as recent months’ credit tightening has occurred in refinance loan programs,” said Joel…

Mortgage Rates Break Downward Streak, Rising To 5.23%

Mortgage rates broke their downward streak this week, rising to an average of 5.23%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.23%, up from last week’s 5.09%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.96%. “After little movement the last few weeks, mortgage rates rose again on the back of increased economic activity and incoming inflation data,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  “The housing market is incredibly rate-sensitive, so as mortgage rates increase suddenly, demand again is pulling back. The material decline in purchase activity, combined with the rising supply of homes for sale, will cause a deceleration in price growth to more normal…

Overall Mortgage Lending Down, Though HELOCs See Boost

Overall residential lending activity dropped 32% YOY, the fastest decline in eight years, according to ATTOM’s Q1 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report. The report found that 2.71 million mortgages secured by residential property were originated in Q1 2022. This is a drop from Q4 and the fourth consecutive quarter of declines. Refinances were down 22% and purchase mortgages fell 18% quarter-over-quarter. Lenders originated $892.4 billion in loans in Q1, down 17% from Q4 and 27% YOY. The quarterly dip in dollar volume was the largest in five years, and the annual dip was the largest in eight years. Declining refis drove the declines, with only 1.45 million residential loans refinanced during Q1 2022, down 22% from Q4 and a…