Builder Confidence Drops, Signaling Trouble For The Housing Market

Builder confidence dropped two points in June to its lowest level since June 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders(NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI asks builders for their opinions on current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months, as well as rate their traffic of prospective buyers. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as worse than better. The HMI posted a reading of 67 for the month of June. It is the sixth consecutive month of decline for the index. NAHB’s press release called it a “troubling sign for the housing market.” “Six consecutive monthly declines for the HMI is a clear sign of a slowing housing…

Builder Profits Fell In 2020, The First Drop Since 2008

Builder gross profit margins fell to 18.2% in 2020, while net profits slipped to 7%, according to NAHB Builders’ Cost of Doing Business Study. This is the first profit margin decline since 2008. The study surveyed single-family builders across the U.S. It found that builders averaged $13.7 million in revenue for the fiscal year of 2020, of which $11.2 million (81.8%) was spent on costs of sales, such as land costs and construction costs. An additional $1.5 million (11.2%) was spent on operating expenses, such as marketing, administrative expenses, and owner’s compensation.  The study notes that shutdowns related to Covid-19 played a part in the results, as well as the need to navigate work-from-home models, supply-chain disruptions, and labor shortages.…

Single, Multifamily Growth Trended Opposite Directions In Last Half Of 2021

Single-family growth cooled in Q4 2021 while multifamily growth in high-density areas surged, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). The HBGI is a quarterly measurement of building conditions across the country and uses county-level information about single- and multifamily permits to gauge housing construction growth in various urban and rural geographies. “Multifamily production posted strong gains in all regional markets as the demand for apartments increased,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Meanwhile, supply-side constraints that include ongoing labor shortages and a lack of key housing products that include garage doors, appliances and windows has delayed single-family construction times across the nation and put upward pressure on home prices.” The price of…

Newly Built Home Share Hits Record-High

More than a third of US single-family homes for sale in December were newly built, the highest share on record, according to a new Redfin report. New construction accounted for 34.1% of single-family homes at the end of 2021, up from 25.4% year-over-year (YOY). These numbers are the result of builders trying to keep up with housing demand, which has increased while inventory dropped to historic lows. In December, existing-home inventory fell 14.2% YOY with a historic-low 1.8 months supply. However, new homes saw inventory increase 34.8% and had a 6 month supply. Though new home supply is rising, new home sales have remained consistent, which Redfin calls “another indicator that homebuyer demand is far outpacing supply.” “A lot of…