The Calabria Files: Very, Very Wrong

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria said on April 1 he expected 300,000 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans – or 1 percent of their mortgages – to go into forbearance in April.

Less than three weeks later, he’s way, way off.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 4.64 percent of Fannie and Freddie loans were in forbearance as of April 12.

And an analysis by financial technology firm Black Knight found that there were nearly 1.4 million Fannie and Freddie loans in forbearance as of Friday, April 19 – representing 4.9 percent of their mortgages.

Calabria made his original prediction of 300,000 on CNBC on April 1, prefacing them by saying they were very preliminary and may change: 

“My estimates now for Fannie and Freddie’s book we’re hearing about a takeup of just over 1 percent of their book. So April looks like it will be approximately 300,000 loans (in forbearance) for Fannie and Freddie. For the overall market, that would translate into 700,000 loans,” Calabria said, adding that he expected the number to climb to 1 million Fannie and Freddie loans by May.

Watch his CNBC interview here:

On April 8, he reiterated to HousingWire that he expected 1 million Fannie and Freddie loans would be in forbearance by May.