Morning Roundup (2/1/2022)– Crowded Out Of The Market, New Home Record

Good Morning! Today is February 1, 2022. Moderna’s Spikevax won full FDA approval for adults 18 and up, making it the second fully approved Covid-19 vaccine. Pfizer is planning to ask the FDA to authorize its vaccine for children under 5. A prosecutor dropped the last criminal inquiry into sexual misconduct allegations against Andrew Cuomo. The Mortgage Note Reports Getting Pushed Out Of The Housing Market? You’re Not Alone: Low-income and minority buyers will continue to be crowded out of the housing market in 2022, according to the director of research at the AEI Housing Center. Home Showings Skyrocket: Showing traffic rose 11.5% YOY in December 2021 as buyers continued scouring the market for a new home. New Construction Record: …

Newly Built Home Share Hits Record-High

More than a third of US single-family homes for sale in December were newly built, the highest share on record, according to a new Redfin report. New construction accounted for 34.1% of single-family homes at the end of 2021, up from 25.4% year-over-year (YOY). These numbers are the result of builders trying to keep up with housing demand, which has increased while inventory dropped to historic lows. In December, existing-home inventory fell 14.2% YOY with a historic-low 1.8 months supply. However, new homes saw inventory increase 34.8% and had a 6 month supply. Though new home supply is rising, new home sales have remained consistent, which Redfin calls “another indicator that homebuyer demand is far outpacing supply.” “A lot of…

Second Home Rate Locks Hit All-Time High In 2021

The percentage of second home mortgage rate locks reached its highest recorded level in Q1 2021, dipping slightly in Q2 and Q3 before jumping back up at year-end, according to Pacaso’s Second Home Market report. Second home locks made up 5.7% of all mortgage rate locks in Q1 2021, a record high. They dropped slightly in Q2 and Q3, to 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively, but jumped back up to 5% in Q4 2021. “In April of last year, people stopped to take a beat, to see how things would shake out in what everyone hoped would be a post-pandemic reality,” said Pacaso CEO Austin Allison. “For some, that also meant going back to the office, and perhaps not coincidentally, second…

Inflation Rising In High-Migration Cities

The Great Migration is driving up inflation in the most popular destinations, a new Redfin report reveals. Looking at the correlation between inflation and migration in the metros, Redfin users are looking to move. Their analysis showed that high migration rates are linked to rising inflation. The tenth most popular destination in Q4 2021, Atlanta, saw inflation rise by 8.9% year-over-year in the same period, the highest inflation rate of all metros in their analysis. “Migration is one reason among many why the cost of everything from food to fuel is rising,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “An influx of people moving to a popular, relatively affordable place like Atlanta increases demand for housing and transportation, pushing up…

Rates Settle Down After Weeks Of Increases

Mortgage rates flattened out after weeks of steadily rising, averaging 3.55% last week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.55%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.73%. “Following a month-long rise, mortgage rates effectively stayed flat this week. Recent rate increases have yet to significantly impact purchase demand, as history demonstrates that potential homebuyers who are on the fence will often enter the market at the start of rate increase cycles,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “We do expect rates to continue to increase but at a more gradual pace. Therefore, a fair number of current homeowners could continue to benefit from…

Home Prices Up 1.1% In November, 17.5% YOY

Home prices across the country rose 1.1% month-over-month in November and 17.5% year-over-year, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes ranged from +0.5 percent in the West North Central division to +1.9 percent in the South Atlantic division. The 12-month changes ranged from +13.3 percent in the West North Central division to +22.8 percent in the Mountain division. “House price levels remained elevated in November, but the data indicate a pivot,” said Will Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics.  “The last four months reflect average gains of 1.0 percentage point, down from the larger prior changes during the…

Pricier, More Populated Metros Making a Comeback

Big cities could be making a comeback, with more expensive, populated housing markets appearing on the quarterly Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com® Emerging Housing Markets Index. The top 20 emerging markets listed averaged 500,000 residents this quarter, more than 100,000 people more than last quarter. It is a mix of coastal, Southern, and Midwestern markets. Six of the 100 largest U.S. metros made the list: Raleigh, NC; Colorado Springs; North Port, Fla; San Jose, CA.; Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, Fla; and Oxnard-Thousand Oaks, CA. “It could signal a reorientation of the real estate market,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. The rankings and their median list price are as follows: Naples, FL ($667,000)North Port, FL ($445,000)Kahului, HI ($937,000)San Luis Obispo, CA ($899,000)San Jose, CA…

Morning Roundup (1/24/2022)– 2022 Forecast, Record Rent And Mortgage Growth

Good Morning! Today is Monday, January 24. Biden is considering sending troops to Eastern Europe in response to fears of a Russian incursion into Ukraine. Virginia’s Republican attorney general fired a top Jan. 6 investigator from his job at the University of Virginia. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills, and the LA Rams beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. TMN REPORTS: Finding A Mortgage On Your Phone: The typical American spends between five and six hours a day on their mobile phone, so mortgage companies are developing new technologies to help them meet consumers where they are. Freddie Mac Forecast: Purchases Up, ReFi’s Down in 2022: Freddie Mac’s latest Quarterly Forecast predicts that rising rates will lead to moderation in…

Rents And Mortgage Payments See Record Growth

Both rent and mortgage payment price growth reached record highs in December, according to a new report from Redfin. Rents jumped to $1,877, 14.1% year-over-year (YOY) and the largest annual jump since at least February 2019, the earliest month in Redfin’s data. The national monthly mortgage payment rose 21.6% YOY, also the largest increase in Redfin’s data history. “The growth in mortgage payments has been driven by both climbing prices and climbing mortgage rates,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.  “And those rising mortgage costs push more potential homebuyers into renting instead, which pushes up demand and prices for rentals. Mortgage rate increases are accelerating, which will cause both mortgage payments and rent to grow throughout 2022.” The 30-year fixed-rate…

Morning Roundup (1/18/2022)– Home Sales Slump In December

Good Morning! Today is Tuesday, January 18. China’s economy grew by only 4% in Q4 2021, worrying the international community. Communications to Tonga are still fraught after a volcanic eruption in the Pacific, hampering aid. Airlines warned of grounded flights this week if AT&T and Verizon deploy more 5G technology, which they say interferes with altitude readings. And in mortgage and housing news… Is Home Ownership More Affordable Than Renting? A report released this month suggests that despite rising home prices it is more affordable to own a median-priced home than to rent a three-bedroom property in a majority of the United States, but it all depends on where you live. Slumping Home Sales: December homes sales saw their largest…