Rates Drop By 10+ BPS As Prices Surge

Mortgage rates retreated last week, dropping more than ten basis points in a one-week period. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78%, down from 6.96% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.54%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage reversed course as well, down a whopping 24 bps from 6.30% to 6.06%. A year ago, it averaged 4.75%. “As inflation slows, mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Still, the ongoing shortage of previously owned homes for sale has been a detriment to homebuyers looking to take advantage of declining rates.” Existing-home sales saw their most sluggish levels in 14 years in June. At the…

Existing Home Sales Ticked Up In May

Existing-home sales increased slightly in May, just enough to put a positive spin on the otherwise difficult market. Sales rose by 0.2%, barely moving, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.30 million from 4.28 million the month prior, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Year-over-year, sales are down 20.4%. The South and West saw improvement month-over-month, but the Northeast and Midwest fared poorly. “Mortgage rates heavily influence the direction of home sales. Relatively steady rates have led to several consecutive months of consistent home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The median price for an existing dropped, down 3.1% to $396,100, NAR found. This is just the fourth YOY decline in years. February’s…

All Eyes On The Federal Reserve

By KIMBERLEY HAAS Industry leaders are speculating about what officials at the Federal Reserve will do concerning rate increases during their meeting this week. In May, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said they were prepared to raise rates again if economic conditions worsened, but hinted at a wait-and-see attitude regarding this month’s meeting. Policymakers may even skip raising rates after a smaller than expected rise in the Consumer Price Index, released on Tuesday. CNN reporter Matt Egan said the CPI report gives officials the cover they need to hold off on increasing rates this month. “Investors are becoming increasingly confident that the Fed is going to keep interest rates steady after … 10 consecutive interest rate hikes. The Fed has…

Latest Rate Hike Unnecessary, NAR’s Lawrence Yun Says

At the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Central Bank hinted at a pause in rate hikes as soon as June but still increased the benchmark rate by a quarter-point. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, found that puzzling. During the “Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum” at NAR’s 2023 REALTORS Legislative Meeting, he called the increase unnecessary and stressed further increases harm the housing market and the economy at large.  Inventory, not interest rates, is the driving force behind the current housing market. Stock remains down 40% compared to 2019, while demand keeps growing. “We have to stop the bleeding before improvement takes place,” Yun said. “We need to get more inventory, and the…

Prices Climb In Q1 As Demand For Budget-Friendly Homes Heats Up

Home sale prices went up last quarter due to high competition in budget-friendly markets. The National Association of Realtors’ latest quarterly report found that single-family existing-home sales prices increased in 152 of 221 metros — about 70% — in Q1 2023.  The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,859, up 33% YOY. The divide in demand between affordable and expensive markets is the main factor in these numbers. High-end markets with the most expensive homes are seeing declines, while cheaper areas are seeing intense competition for the few affordable homes for sale, pushing prices up. “Generally speaking, home prices are lower in expensive markets and higher in affordable markets, implying greater…

Pending Home Sales Slipped In March

Pending home sales sank in March as rate-sensitive buyers continued to skirt the market, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index declined by 5.2% between February and March. Year-over-year, it dropped by 23.2%. All four regions saw pending sales fall YOY, and three of the four saw contract signings shrink. Signings increased slightly in the South as the region continues to attract buyers chasing affordability and sunny weather. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed to tight inventory as the main hindrance to sales. “Multiple offers are still occurring on about a third of all listings, and 28% of homes are selling above list price. Limited housing supply is simply not meeting demand nationally,” he said.…

Existing Home Sales Dipped Again In March After February Rebound

Existing-home sales dipped in March after rising the month prior as the housing market remains rate sensitive. Sales declined by 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million from 4.48 million the month prior, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Year-over-year, sales are down 22%. All four major regions saw sales decline year-over-year and three of the four tanked month-over-month. Only the Northeast’s sales were unchanged from February. The median price for an existing home slid YOY alongside rates, down 0.9% to $375,700. This is just the second YOY decline in years– last month’s dip broke the longest streak on record, 131 consecutive months of price gains. “Home sales are trying to recover…

It’s Their Move: What Will The Feds Do About Interest Rates?

By PATRICK LAVERY Speculation about what actions leaders at the Federal Reserve will take at their meeting starting Tuesday has been building for weeks, and opinions over the right course of action are varied. Should they stay the course, steadily raising interest rates to try to continue to curb inflation? Should they be more aggressive? Or should they pull back, letting the United States slide into a recession? These questions have been swirling for months but the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank changed the dynamics of the conversations seemingly overnight. Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for the National Association of Realtors, said prior to the bank collapses, she could…

Pending Home Sales Rise, Breaking Six Month Spiral

Pending home sales rose for the first time since May, breaking a six-month streak of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index increased by 2.5% between November and December. Year-over-year it dropped by 33.8%, an improvement over November’s 37%. All four regions saw pending sales fall YOY, but the South and West saw gains month-over-month. “This recent low point in home sales activity is likely over,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.” Mortgage rates fell again last week to 6.13%, drawing some buyers back to the market. Purchase loan applications increased again as…

Pending Home Sales Fall For Fifth Straight Month

Pending home sales fell for the fifth consecutive month in October, with three of the four regions seeing month-over-month declines, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index dropped by 4.6% between September and October. Year-over-year it tanked by 37%. All four regions saw pending sales drop year-over-year. The Midwest, however, experienced a small uptick month-over-month, up by 3.3%. The Northeast PHSI fell by 4.3% from September, while the South fell 6.4% and the West saw a major decline of 11.3%. “October was a difficult month for home buyers as they faced 20-year-high mortgage rates. The West region, in particular, suffered from the combination of high interest rates and expensive home prices. Only the Midwest squeaked out…