Real house prices jumped 10.5% in September and logged a 60.6% YOY increase, according to First American’s Real House Price Index. As a result, consumer buying power, or how much a person can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, fell by 8.9% month-over-month and 29.3% YOY. The significant dip in affordability measured here results from skyrocketing home prices and rapidly increasing mortgage rates. “Even though household income increased 3.1% since September 2021 and boosted consumer house-buying power, it was not enough to offset the affordability loss from higher mortgage rates and fast-rising nominal prices,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. Florida, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Alabama saw the largest annual increases in real house…
Mortgage interest rates sank to 6.60% last week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.60%, down from 7.08% the week prior. This is the largest weekly drop in 40 years. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also fell from 6.38% to 5.98%. A year ago, it averaged 2.39%. As a result, the typical monthly mortgage payment declined by $100, giving a typical homebuyer with a $2,500 budget $12,000 more purchasing power over the course of just one week. “Mortgage rates tumbled this week due to incoming data that suggests inflation may have peaked,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While the decline in mortgage rates is welcome news, there is still…
Mortgage originations saw their largest annual decline in 21 years, further evidence that the housing boom is coming to an end. Originations fell 47% YOY in Q3, according to ATTOM Data’s Q3 2022 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report. Quarter-over-quarter they were down 19%, the sixth consecutive drop. Lenders issued a total of $636.5 billion worth of mortgages in Q3. By dollar count, that’s down 22% from Q2 and 46% YOY. It’s the largest dip in loan dollar volume since at least 2001. HELOC lending increased for the fifth time in six quarters, but the boost was overwhelmed by the slump in purchase and refinance origination. “There are no surprises in this quarter’s loan origination numbers, as the unprecedented jump…
Housing construction fell sharply in October, another miss for the rapidly constricting housing market. Starts for both single- and multi-family units dropped by 4.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.425 million units, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected housing starts to register a 1.41 million rate after seasonal adjustment. Single-family starts fell by 6.1% from September, and single-family completions were down 8.3%. Building permits dipped 2.4%, an indicator of builders’ pessimism moving into winter, the slowest season for real estate. Permits offer an indication of how many homes will be built in the coming months. Housing is desperately needed, especially single-family units. Some experts say it could take a decade to…
By SCOTT KIMBLER The director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute painted a bleak picture for the rest of this year and all of 2023 earlier this month during a presentation and forecasting of home prices in the United States. AEI Senior Fellow and Director of the AEI Housing Center Edward Pinto pointed to some major factors colliding at once that will be harming market prices, appreciation of owned homes, and the consumer ability to buy or upgrade a home at all. Those factors are inflation, which is at a 40-year-high, the Fed Fund rate continuously being raised to cool inflation, a housing shortage, and employment repercussions of the pandemic. First, the volume of homes being…
Mortgage loan application volume rose last week, responding to a dip in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey. The adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased by 2.7%. The 30-year fixed rate once again fell below 7%, propelling potential buyers into action. Rates have been going back and forth between the high 6.90s and low 7s for several weeks. This drop from 7.14% to 6.90% is the largest single-week decline since July 2022. The adjusted purchase index rose 4%, while the unadjusted purchase index decreased by 10% and was 46% lower YOY. “Application activity, adjusted to account for the Veterans Day holiday, increased in response to the drop in rates – driven…
Rent growth decelerated for the fifth straight month, but renters in lower-priced units are still feeling the squeeze as homeownership remains out of reach for most Americans. Single-family rents increased only 10.2% YOY in September, down from 13.9% in April 2022, according to recent data from CoreLogic. This is still double the pre-pandemic growth rate, but moving in the right direction. “High mortgage interest rates may be causing potential homebuyers to hit pause and remain renters, keeping pressure on rent prices. However, the monthly rent change was negative in September, resuming the typical seasonal pattern for the first time since 2019, which could signal the beginning of rent price growth normalization,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. Declining rents…
Origination activity continues to sink as the market corrects, with refinances seeing major drops. Black Knight’s October 2022 Originations Market Monitor report found that rate lock dollar volume dropped 14.3% month-over-month to its lowest level since February 2019. Refinances have been hit especially hard, making up just 14% of all origination activity in October. Cash-out refis, which had previously seemed resilient due to widespread equity gains, fell 25.1% from September and are down 83.6% YOY. Rate/term refis sank an additional 15.7% and are now down 92.6% YOY. “With interest rates now at their highest level in 20 years, the refi market is rapidly approaching a bottom,” said Scott Happ, president of Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight. “Indeed, our…
Mortgage loan delinquencies dropped to 3.45% of all loans outstanding in Q3 2022, once again breaking the record for the lowest point since 1979. According to MBA’s National Delinquency Survey, delinquencies were down 19 BPS from Q2 and 143 BPS from a year earlier. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also fell further, and remain below historical averages. “The relatively small number of seriously delinquent homeowners are working with their mortgage servicers to find foreclosure alternatives, including loan workouts that allow for home retention,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. Alternatives can include reinstatement, loan modification, deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, or short sale. Booming home equity is one of the reasons foreclosures have remained…
Mortgage interest rates tipped back over 7% last week, continuing to yo-yo back and forth from the high 6.90s, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.08%, up from 6.95% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.98%. “As the housing market adjusts to rapidly tightening monetary policy, mortgage rates again surpassed 7%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The housing market is the most interest-rate sensitive segment of the economy, and the impact rates have on homebuyers continues to evolve. Home sales have declined significantly and, as we approach year-end, they are not expected to improve.” Purchase loans ticked up recently after a…
