Recession is still on the horizon, but housing may support the economy moving through it, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group.
In recent commentary, the group noted that mixed economic data has muddied the waters on the economy’s strength. But recession “remains the most likely outcome” of tightening monetary policy and late-stage business cycle dynamics.
Inflation has improved thanks to slowing domestic and global economic growth, but core inflation is still sticky.
“Lessons learned from the inflationary era of the 1970-80s … lead the ESR Group to expect that the Fed will maintain its restrictive monetary policy stance until it is abundantly clear that inflation pressures from the labor market have eased,” the group stated.
But that…
As the country approaches D-Day for defaulting on its debts, analysts are breaking down the impact of such a scenario on the economy.
The Treasury Department said in January that the U.S. was close to its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. As a result, it announced “extraordinary measures” to keep the government’s funding above water through spring.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other experts are now saying the U.S. could default on its debt as early as June in a worst-case scenario.
Dramatic as the news may be, it’s highly unlikely that Congress would actually allow a breach of the debt ceiling.
“While we have a highly polarized Congress negotiating, it isn’t in either party’s interest to let a default happen,”…
Net new listings and contract volume have officially declined for twelve straight months, according to new data from HouseCanary.
HouseCanary’s latest Market Pulse report, which covers 22 listing-derived metrics and compares data between April 2022 and April 2023, shows market activity was significantly hindered in the first month of Q2.
“As we enter May 2023, the real estate market continues to experience uncertainty, with the purchasing market slowdown being one of the key trends observed for over a year now,” Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, said.
Contract and net new listing volume both fell annually, down 17.8% and 39.8%, respectively.
Listings were hit particularly hard by a nearly 45% YOY increase in removals.
Home sellers who…
Buying a house became slightly more affordable in Q1 2023 as the housing market remains stalled, but remained out of reach for many Americans.
According to ATTOM Data Solution’s Q1 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Report, median-priced single-family homes and condos were less affordable in the first quarter of 2023 compared to historical averages in 94% of counties. This is a huge leap from the 62% of counties that were less affordable at the same time last year.
The portion of average wages it takes to pay major homeownership costs decreased slightly to 30%. While this is still unaffordable by most lending standards, it’s a minor improvement from the 31% registered at year-end 2022.
ATTOM calls this housing data a “mixed…
The number of million-dollar U.S. homes has dropped dramatically from a record high last year.
They now account for 7% of all U.S. houses, down from 8.6% in June 2022, according to an analysis by Dana Anderson at Redfin.
This could signal a reversal in the housing market, at least on the luxury side. Prices soared so high and so fast that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raised their lending limits to $1 million in some metros back in 2021. The 18% hike was the highest single jump since at least 1970, outpacing the 15.9% increase seen in 2006.
The exception to the current trend is Florida, which now has more homes worth $1 million than it did last year…
Home seller return on investment rose to 51% at the end of 2022 despite slowing sales, new data from ATTOM shows.
Sellers nationwide earned $112,000 on the typical sale in 2022, up 21% from 2021 and 78% from before the pandemic.
Both raw profits and ROI have now improved across the country for 11 consecutive years.
Ninety-eight percent of markets with enough data to analyze saw profits increase from 2021 to 2022. The latest number is the highest profit level seen by home sellers since at least 2008.
Sellers in Southern and Western markets saw the highest ROI, led by Hilo, HI (100% ROI); Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ (88.4%); Spokane, WA (86.2%); Fort Myers, FL (85.4%) and Port St. Lucie,…
This Halloween, mortgage brokers have more to fear than your typical ghosts and ghouls. Some economists say the market is rebalancing, while others say the housing slowdown is more severe than a correction. “Last year, sellers could seemingly list their home at any price and see multiple offers roll in above list price within days,” said Senior Economist Nicole Bachaud of Zillow. “Now, buyers have some negotiating power, and sellers are under pressure. Buyers are still out there and willing to buy when they find the right home at the right price, which will provide a floor for the price declines we are currently seeing.” Either way, mortgage brokers are facing a seriously spooky situation: dwindling home sales, decades-high interest rates,…
Most Americans want their parents to age comfortably in their own homes, but it can be a challenge for both families and the housing market. Three out of four adults want their parents to be able to age in their own homes, but more than half of Gen Xers don’t feel financially prepared to assist their parents in old age, according to a new study from American Advisors Group. AAG surveyed 1,500 adults aged 40-55 who have senior parents. “The retirement savings crisis is real, and many Gen X adult children are telling us that caring for their parents will be extremely difficult and potentially unattainable,” said Eddie Herda, AAG VP of Brand Strategy. Herda said there is interest in…
Most housing markets still favor sellers despite increasing buyer-friendliness, especially in more affordable markets in the South and Midwest. Knock’s Buyer-Seller Market Index found that 71 of America’s 100 largest housing markets still remain seller’s markets. “Although the general consensus is the housing market is undergoing a much-needed reset, which is welcome news to many home shoppers who will have more choices and less competition for the foreseeable future, not all markets are seeing the same trends,” said Knock Co-Founder and CEO Sean Black. “In reality, there’s a great housing divide taking place in the U.S., especially in the East and South, where despite a slowdown in sales and slower home price growth, many markets continue to favor sellers.” Fayetteville,…
As the housing correction continues, most Americans have a gloomy outlook for the market’s future. A ConsumerAffairs survey found that 78% of Americans expect the housing market to crash and soon. More than half of baby boomers said they believe 2023 will bring a housing crisis. Most Zoomers went so far as to say they’re hoping for one– 84% want a market crash because they believe it will help them buy their first home. Gen Zers overwhelmingly want to own their own homes, with 59% identifying homeownership as a sign of success. But many are worried they may never be able to afford a home if prices continue rising as they have in the last two years. “Non-homeowners cite insufficient…
