Housing Market Slowdown Continues

Net new listings and contract volume have officially declined for twelve straight months, according to new data from HouseCanary. HouseCanary’s latest Market Pulse report, which covers 22 listing-derived metrics and compares data between April 2022 and April 2023, shows market activity was significantly hindered in the first month of Q2. “As we enter May 2023, the real estate market continues to experience uncertainty, with the purchasing market slowdown being one of the key trends observed for over a year now,” Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, said. Contract and net new listing volume both fell annually, down 17.8% and 39.8%, respectively. Listings were hit particularly hard by a nearly 45% YOY increase in removals. Home sellers who…

AEI Predicts Housing Market Will Continue to Struggle Through 2023

By Scott Kimbler Watch for housing sales in 2023 to follow the same pattern from a decade ago. That’s the prediction of Ed Pinto, Director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center, during a recent data review. He and Assistant Director Tobias Peter used information from the final months of 2022 and into the first quarter of 2023 to preview the remainder of 2023 and perhaps even into 2024, given current market trends. Pinto pointed out that Agency Purchase Volume for the final month of 2022 was down 45 percent from the same month in 2021 and 51 percent down from the same month in 2020. “Based on Optimal Blue date,” Pinto said. “We expect purchase volume in early 2023…

Existing Home Sales Exploded In February

Existing-home sales exploded in February, breaking a full-year downward streak thanks to retreating interest rates. Sales increased by 14.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million from 4.02 million the month prior, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. It’s the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. All four major regions saw sales increase month-over-month and decrease year-over-year. At the same time, the median price for an existing home slid YOY alongside rates, down 0.2% to $363,000. This is the first YOY decline in 131 consecutive months, the longest streak on record. “Conscious of changing mortgage rates, homebuyers are taking advantage of any rate declines. Moreover, we’re seeing stronger sales gains in areas…

YOY Home Prices Fall For The First Time In A Decade

Home prices have fallen for the first time since 2012 as affordability concerns decimate buyer demand. The median U.S. home sale price dipped by 1.2% to $386,721, the first annual decline in a decade, Redfin reported. “Buyers are struggling because higher interest rates have increased the cost of homeownership, and sellers are struggling because they’re still adjusting to the fact that their home won’t sell for what their neighbors’ did a year ago,” said Andrew Vallejo, a Redfin real estate agent. Prices are cooling, but after soaring to record heights after the pandemic, they’re still historically high. The cities with the biggest declines are pandemic hotspots seeing corrections after their boom moment. Two such cities, San Jose and Austin, saw…

Home Prices Kept Dropping In December

Home price appreciation continued to cool in December, with some markets seeing declining prices, according to new data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index saw home prices decelerate, posting a 5.8% annual gain in December, down from 7.6% in the previous month. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, said the data marked the sixth straight month of YOY decreases. Southern cities continued to see gains, with Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta all recording 10%+ increases despite the cooldown in other metros.  Pricey Western metros saw YOY prices fall, with San Francisco clocking in a 4.2% drop. Month-over-month prices fell in all twenty cities analyzed, however, with a median decline of -1.1%. “The prospect of stable, or…

Homebuyers Getting More Bang For Their Buck As Rates Retreat

As rates retreat and home price appreciation cools, homebuyers are getting more bang for their buck, analysts at Zillow report. Rising mortgage rates in 2022 pushed many buyers’ dream homes out of reach. Those who opted to stay in the market found that the homes they could afford were smaller and more expensive. More affordable metros were the most impacted, as buyers competed for homes in those markets. Hartford had the largest dip in home size for $3,000, down 1,200 square feet. Indianapolis and Cleveland also saw homebuyers lose over 1,000 feet. More expensive markets like San Jose, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco saw a similar trend. “Mortgage rates have a huge impact on the types of homes…

Rates Down Again, Purchase Demand “Thawing”

The 30-year fixed rate slipped slightly again last week, prompting some pent-up buyers to lock in a purchase, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.13%, down from 6.15% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.55%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 5.28% to 5.17%. A year ago, it averaged 2.80%. “Mortgage rates continue to tick down and, as a result, home purchase demand is thawing from the months-long freeze that gripped the housing market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Potential homebuyers remain sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, but ample demand remains, fueled by first-time homebuyers.” Pending home sales have been…

Home Price Growth Fell From Q3 To Q4 2022

Annual single-family home price growth dipped from Q3 2022 to Q4 2022, according to Fannie Mae’s Home Price Index. Prices rose by 9.2% YOY in Q4, down from 13.1% in Q3. They increased just 0.2% quarter-over-over when seasonally adjusted, and fell 1% unadjusted. The index measures the average quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the United States, excluding condos. “The rise in mortgage rates over the past year and record inflation have constrained the purchasing power of prospective homebuyers. The resulting affordability pressures are evident in the home price declines of the past two quarters, along with the downturn in home sales,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.   Demand has dwindled as many…

Price Appreciation Cools To Single Digits

Home price growth cooled to the single digits for the first time in a year as both buyers and sellers continued to pull back from the market. The typical home cost $400,000, an annual increase of 8.4%, according to Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Trends Report. While price appreciation remains elevated, it’s far lower now than its peak of 18% YOY earlier this year. The number of homes for sale was up 74.6% YOY, with 49 of the 50 largest metros seeing their inventory increase. That metric remained 38% lower than the December 2017-2019 average, however. Newly listed homes and pending listings both declined YOY.  Home sellers who are locked into low interest rates are hesitant to take on a more expensive…

Monthly Mortgage Costs Fell In November, But Are Still Up 66% YOY

Homebuyers are finally starting to see some moderation in prices as the market corrects.  The cost of a new mortgage fell 4.8% in November as mortgage rates plunged, according to Zillow’s latest Market Report. This is only the second time mortgage costs have declined in the past 19 months. Falling home values and shrinking mortgage rates forced prices to cool. Rates dropped 57 basis points in November alone.  The typical U.S. home saw its value shrink 0.2% from October to November, and is down 0.5% from a peak in June. Renters also reaped the benefits of declining values, with rents seeing their largest single-month drop in the seven-year history of Zillow’s data. Affordability remains a challenge. Monthly mortgage costs are…