Housing Starts Saw Surprise Uptick In September

Housing starts surged unexpectedly in September, suggesting some relief for homebuyers grappling with tight inventory. New U.S. home construction increased by 7% last month to an annualized rate of 1.36 million, resurfacing after an 11.3% drop in August, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. They rose in three of the four major regions, with just the Northeast seeing a decline. Multi-family starts in particular were up 17% after a slumping last month. Single-family starts also saw a boost, up 3.2% month-over-month. “The uptick in single-family production was somewhat unexpected as our latest builder surveys indicate that starts are likely to weaken in the months ahead due to recent higher mortgage rates that were near 7.6% in mid-October,” Alicia…

Housing Starts Tank, But Permits Offer Hope

Housing starts slipped in August as multifamily construction sank, though permits for single-family homes accelerated. New U.S. home construction fell by 11.3% last month, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, to an annualized rate of 1.28 million. Single-family starts were down 4.3% from July. Permits for new construction rose to their fastest pace in nearly a year, however, up 6.9% to 1.54 million. Permits offer an indication of how many homes will be built in the coming months. Permits for single-family homes in particular soared to their fastest pace since May 2022. This suggests that builders are optimistic about demand moving forward. But they’ve recently taken a hit from the high-rate environment, leading to depressed homebuilder sentiment. The…

Entry-Level Home Prices Still Hot As Competition Sizzles

First-time buyers are still living in last year’s housing market thanks to limited affordable inventory, leading to tight competition and soaring prices. A new report from Zillow found that typical home values for the least-expensive one-third of houses rose by 8% YOY, or $13,000. In comparison, mid-level homes saw a 3% YOY increase, and the most expensive one-third of houses lost value, experiencing a 1% drop. This is the first loss of value for the top tier since at least 2012. “Buyers shopping for the least-expensive homes this spring aren’t noticing much difference from the pandemic-era market heat,” said Skylar Olsen, Zillow’s chief economist. “Competition is fierce, but there aren’t many homes for sale, so buyers should be patient but…

New Home Apps Dropped In September, Putting Pressure On Worried Builders

New home mortgage applications dropped sharply in September as buyers backed away from decades-high interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Builder Application Survey for September 2022 found that applications for new home purchases fell 13.2% YOY and 7% from August. Based on that data, MBA predicts that new single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted rate of 637,000 in September. “New home purchase activity declined in September as prospective homebuyers pulled back in response to higher mortgage rates, increased concern about an impending recession, and a broader slowdown in home-price growth,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased almost a full percentage point in the last month, greatly reducing…

Builder Confidence Falls, Signaling A Market Slowdown

Builder confidence fell eight points in May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI registered a reading of 69 in May, a significant drop from April. This is the fifth consecutive month of decline and the lowest reading since June 2020. The low reading suggests that the housing market is slowing thanks to affordability challenges. “The housing market is facing growing challenges. Building material costs are up 19% from a year ago, in less than three months mortgage rates have surged to a 12-year high and, based on current affordability conditions, less than 50% of new and existing home sales are affordable for a typical family,”  said NAHB Chief Economist Robert…

New Home Applications Up From December

Mortgage applications for new home purchases fell 12.5% year-over-year in January 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS). However, applications rose by 10% from December 2021, as MBA estimates 66,000 new homes were sold in January compared to December’s 60,000. MBA estimated that new single-family sales were running at a rate of 821,000 units, down 7.4% from December’s 887,000 unit pace. “Purchase applications for new homes fell on an annual basis in January, but the 10% monthly gain is a positive sign to start the year. While homebuyer demand remains strong, purchase activity is being constrained by higher prices and building delays due to supply-chain pressures and building materials shortages,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate…