By TYRONE TOWNSEND As the spring selling season continues, those in the industry are noticing that the housing market in parts of the country is beginning to cool after a wild ride during the pandemic. Bidding wars and all-cash bids were prevalent due to rising housing prices and low availability. As more investors invaded the market, millions of average Americans were left on the sidelines, unable to compete. The housing market is already beginning to cool but despite this fact, respite for homeowners – particularly first-time purchasers – is unlikely as the Federal Reserve continues to boost interest rates to battle inflation, driving up mortgage rates. According to Realtor.com’s Monthly Home Trends Report, housing inventory in the United States was…
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group has downwardly revised its full-year 2022 real GDP expectations, along with anticipated home sales and mortgage originations, according to the group’s latest forecast. They now expect full-year real GDP to grow at a reduced rate of 1.3%, a 0.8% decrease from their previous prediction, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and “a slowdown of global economic growth.” The forecast also predicts that Q2 2022 will see growth rebound to 1.6%, a reaction to Q1’s economic contraction of 1.4%. “Financial conditions have tightened significantly, and the economy is slowing faster than previously expected as markets adjust to the Federal Reserve’s tightening guidance,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. Mortgage…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS There are pockets of the country where more homes are being listed than there were before the housing market exploded in 2020 which is a good sign for buyers in those metro areas. According to an article by Margaret Heidenry for Realtor.com, metros that saw the most new homes hit the market include Riverside, CA (+23.3%), Austin, TX (+16.5%), and Sacramento, CA (+11.8%). Metros include the main city and surrounding suburbs, towns, and smaller urban communities, according to the article. Compass Agent Paul Reddam in Austin told Heidenry it is hard to nail down what is causing inventory to loosen, but this is typically the peak of their real estate cycle. The bad news is that the number of homes for sale…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS Consumers across the country continue to report difficult homebuying conditions due to inflation, higher mortgage rates, and home price appreciation. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, says that in April their Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level since the spring of 2020. The percentage of respondents who said it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 24% to 19%, while the percentage who said it is a bad time to buy increased from 73% to 76%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 8 percentage points month over month, according to the survey. “The current lack…
The Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI) rose to its fastest annual pace ever on record in Q1 2022, measuring 20% YOY, the company reported. This is up from an annualized rate of 19.1% in Q4 2021, the fastest pace in the index’s 47-year history. Seasonally adjusted home prices rose 4.8% from last quarter. The FNM-HPI is a national, repeat-transaction home price index that measures average quarterly price change on all single-family properties in the U.S., excluding condos. The FNM-HPI will now be publicly available as a quarterly series with a start date of Q1 1975. “We’re pleased to begin sharing the Fannie Mae Home Price Index with external audiences. We have long used this index within the company, including…
Mortgage rates continued their upward march this week, averaging 4.42%, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.42%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.17%. “This week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by more than a quarter of a percent as mortgage rates across all loan types continued to move up,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Rising inflation, escalating geopolitical uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve’s actions are driving rates higher and weakening consumers’ purchasing power. In short, the rise in mortgage rates, combined with continued house price appreciation, is increasing monthly mortgage payments and quickly affecting homebuyers’ ability to keep up with the…
By KIMBERLEY HAAS Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its implications for the global economy have some experts saying the housing market in the United States will be impacted because of growing inflation pressures and supply chain difficulties. The Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group now projects full-year 2022 real gross domestic product growth of 2.3%, down from last month’s projection of 2.8%. They have also increased their 30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast to 3.8% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. Just before the war began, inflation hit a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve was poised to begin a course of significant money tightening. According to the ESR Group, the task of enacting…
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is rippling through the U.S. economy, according to March commentary from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group predicts full-year 2022 real GDP growth of 2.3%, down from last month’s projected 2.8%. The group also increased its predictions about the 30-year fixed mortgage, bumping its forecast up to 3.8% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023. Total home sales are now expected to drop 4.1% in 2022, compared to a 2.4% decline predicted last month. Home purchase loan volume should hold up but refinance activity is expected to plunge to only a third of originations. This should come as no surprise to mortgage professionals who are already seeing huge declines in refi activity.…
Mortgage credit availability fell in January after inching up in December, falling to its lowest level since August 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). The MCAI dropped by 0.9% to 124.8 in January, wiping out December’s 0.8% increase. This indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases show loosening credit. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The Conventional MCAI fell 2.5%, though the Government MCAI rose by 0.7%. Within the Conventional MCAI, the Jumo MCAI fell by 1.6% and the conforming MCAI fell by 4.2%. “The decline in credit supply came at a time of rising mortgage rates and limited inventory, which add to the challenges that some prospective buyers…
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) fell 2.4 points to 71.8 in January, its lowest level since May 2020, the GSE reported. The full index is down 5.9 points year-over-year. Affordability concerns drove sentiment down, with four of the index’s six components falling month-over-month. Only 25% of respondents said they believed it’s a good time to buy a home, an all-time low for the survey, while 69% said it’s a good time to sell. “Consumer sentiment toward housing softened further in January – the HPSI fell 2.4 points to 71.8 – as affordability and supply constraints continue to limit home purchase opportunities, particularly among younger households,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. Younger consumers…
