Early 2024 Saw Fewest Existing Home Sales In Decades

Only 25 out of every 1,000 homes changed hands in the first eight months of 2024, the lowest turnover in decades, according to a new report.

A Redfin analysis using turnover as a measure of housing availability found that existing home sales were similar in the early-mid 1990s, but there were fewer homes overall, meaning the turnover rate was higher.

There were 37.5% fewer homes sold this year than during the middle of the pandemic buying frenzy in 2021 (40 of every 1,000) and 31% fewer homes sold than during the last pre-pandemic year in 2019 (36 of every 1,000).

Redfin attributes the data to elevated mortgage rates, rising prices, and limited stock, alongside economic and political turmoil.

“Mortgage rates have already fallen more than one percentage point from their 2024 peak, but we have not yet seen a significant increase in the number of homes changing hands. Of the homes listed this year, many have gone stale because of the lack of demand—especially homes which needed a little extra work,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. 

“With the majority of homeowners locked into low mortgages, rates will need to keep falling consistently for many to feel comfortable moving on from the deals they secured years ago.”

At the same time, the number of homes being listed fell to its lowest point since at least 2012, the earliest data Redfin has.

But this trend is changing as mortgage rates sink following the Central Bank’s September rate cut. Economists at Fannie Mae say new home sales are tracking above their Q3 forecast even as existing sales have stagnated.

More homeowners are expected to enter the market as affordability improves. Rates fell for an eighth consecutive week to 6.13% last week, low enough to bring some potential buyers back to the market.

Starter home prices in particular are easing, which should open the dream of homeownership to a generation of first-time buyers who have been waiting for their moment.