Rates Cool Down, Increasing Demand

Mortgage rates broke a month-long upward streak, deflating for the first time in weeks and resulting in a purchase demand boost. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.88%, down from the week prior’s 6.94%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.73%. This is the first decline in four weeks. The 15-year fixed also fell, dropping to 6.22% from 6.26%. A year ago, it averaged 5.95%. “Evidence that purchase demand remains sensitive to interest rate changes was on display this week, as applications rose for the first time in six weeks in response to lower rates,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.  Mortgage loan applications were up nearly 10% from…

Q4 2023 Brought Fewer Underwater Homes

The number of underwater homes in the U.S. dropped in Q4 2023 as home prices continued soaring, adding to the property wealth of American homeowners. Equity rose by approximately $24,000 YOY for the average borrower, according to new data from CoreLogic. A home is underwater if it has negative equity – that is, if it’s worth less than the homeowners owe. Quarter-over-quarter, the number of homes with negative equity slipped by 1.1%, accounting for just 1.8% of all mortgaged properties, the lowest number ever recorded by CoreLogic.  Annually, underwater mortgages were down by 15%. “Rising home prices continue to fuel growing home equity, which, at $298,000 per average borrower remained near historic highs at the end of 2023,” said Dr.…

Applications Picked Up Last Week, Reversing Downturn

Mortgage applications pulled back from a weeks-long stretch of declines, increasing last week across the board. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows that the adjusted Market Composite Index—a measure of mortgage loan application volume—increased by 9.7%, reversing the week prior’s 5.6% dip. Adjusted purchase applications rose by 11%, while the unadjusted index was up by 13% and was 8% lower YOY. The data is adjusted to include the President’s Day holiday. Rates moved down slightly but not by much, reaching 7.02%. This is elevated from the beginning of the year, but rate-sensitive buyers may be inclined to lock in here before they move any higher. “The latest data on inflation was not markedly better nor worse than expected, which…

February Brought More Affordable Listings To The Market

As sellers are forced to adjust to the housing market’s new normal, more affordable inventory is cropping up.  The share of available homes in the $200,000 to $350,000 price range saw the biggest growth of any price category in February, up 20.6% YOY, Realtor.com reported. Though inventory remains tight, money-minded buyers may see an uptick in affordable homes as they shop this spring. Inventory overall saw a boost last month, with the number of homes actively for sale on a typical day up 14.8% from last year. This is the fourth straight month of annual inventory growth. “The first couple of months of 2024 have proven to be positive for inventory levels, as the number of homes actively for sale…

New Listings Down 15% Compared To Last Year

Listings are down more than 15% from last year, another pain point on the market ahead of the typically zippy spring buying season. HouseCanary’s February Market Pulse Report found that net new listings were 15.3% lower than in February 2023. Overall, inventory is up 11.7% YOY but remains generally constrained, limiting new activity. This is yet another example of market pressures as spring approaches, usually a busy homebuying season. “In January, we saw net new listings and contract volumes trend at multi-year seasonal lows. Although those metrics are slightly up versus last month, the housing market is still facing significant pressures. The Federal Reserve has all but confirmed that rates will continue to hover around the 7% mark, continuing to…

First-Time Buyers Took Out Record Number Of GSE Loans In 2023

First-time homebuyers accounted for a record number of GSE purchase loans in 2023, while originations sunk to new lows, according to ICE’s latest Mortgage Monitor. They made up 55% of agency purchases last year, the highest share ever recorded by ICE in the ten years it has been tracking this metric. “The market in which these folks purchased their first home was one of record house prices, ballooning down payments, rising rates, and elevated DTIs,” Andy Walden, ICE Vice President of Enterprise Research Strategy, said. “Given record exposure to first-time homebuyer loans, it’ll be worth watching the performance of this cohort very closely moving forward, particularly for those invested in 2023 agency MBS.” First-timers and repeat buyers differed greatly in…

Did UWM Squeeze Fairway Out Of The Wholesale Business?

By JARED WHITLEY Did Mat Ishbia win another battle in the “Broker War?” That appears to be the underlying message from Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation, where leaders announced last month they would be shutting down their wholesale platform. Although CEO and Founder Steve Jacobson described the move as a “business shift, nothing more, nothing less,” about 100 people are expected to lose their jobs as a result. “The people who have run Fairway’s Wholesale Department are some of the most talented, humble people in the business and will be a huge value add at their next mortgage home,” Jacobson said in a statement. “We want to thank our entire amazing wholesale team for its dedication and professionalism over the years.”…

Mortgage Lending Plummeted In Q4 2023

Mortgage brokers felt the burn in the last three months of 2023, with residential lending across the board stalling. A new report from ATTOM found that 1.35 million residential mortgages were originated in Q4 2023. That’s a 13.8% drop from Q3, and the tenth decline in the last eleven quarters. Residential lending activity overall was down 16.5% YOY, with purchases, refinances, and home equity loans all taking a hit.  Compared to the boom of Q1 2021, activity is down more than 67%. “Multiple powerful forces continued to conspire against the mortgage industry during the fourth quarter, slicing back huge portions of their business,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “There were signs during the peak buying season of 2022 that…

Rates Up For A Fourth Week, Skirting 7%

Mortgage rates inched up to a two-month high last week, putting pressure on hopeful spring homebuyers. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.94%, up from the week prior’s 6.90%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.65%. This is the fourth consecutive week of increases. The 15-year fixed fell, however, to 6.26% from 6.29%. A year ago, it averaged 5.89%. “The recent boomerang in rates has dampened already tentative homebuyer momentum as we approach the spring, a historically busy season for homebuying,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While sales of newly built homes are trending in a positive direction, higher rates and elevated prices continue to pose affordability challenges…

Pending Home Sales Fell Off In January

Pending home sales contracted in January as rate-sensitive buyers skipped out despite increasing inventory. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index fell by 4.9% month-over-month to a reading of 74.3 in January. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Year-over-year, they were down 8.8%. “The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “This combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying. However, consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.” All four U.S. regions saw declines in year-over-year sales, while month-over-month sales actually…