Spring Is Here: What To Expect This Season

By CHUCK GREEN As the traditional spring homebuying season begins, a lack of inventory, high interest rates, and economic uncertainty due to banking troubles have dominated the news. So what can people expect? Rick Sharga, president and CEO of CJ Patrick Company in California, told The Mortgage Note that it’s “unlikely to be a banner period for home sales. Extremely low inventory of homes for sale coupled with poor affordability are likely to keep sales activity fairly weak, even though seasonal trends usually see sales and prices increase during the spring and summer months.” Although the second quarter is typically the peak season for home sales, that has been disrupted in recent years, noted Sharga. “This seasonal trend didn’t happen…

Rates Down Again, But Waning Banking Fears Add Volatility

The average mortgage rate ticked down again this week, but waning banking sector concerns have rates seesawing. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32%, down from 6.42% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.67%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped from 5.68% to 5.56%. A year ago, it averaged 3.83%. “Economic uncertainty continues to bring mortgage rates down,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Over the last several weeks, declining rates have brought borrowers back to the market but, as the spring homebuying season gets underway, low inventory remains a key challenge for prospective buyers.” Some buyers returned to the market early in order to snag a…

Affordability Inched Up In Q1 2023 But Remains Elusive

Buying a house became slightly more affordable in Q1 2023 as the housing market remains stalled, but remained out of reach for many Americans. According to ATTOM Data Solution’s Q1 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Report, median-priced single-family homes and condos were less affordable in the first quarter of 2023 compared to historical averages in 94% of counties. This is a huge leap from the 62% of counties that were less affordable at the same time last year. The portion of average wages it takes to pay major homeownership costs decreased slightly to 30%. While this is still unaffordable by most lending standards, it’s a minor improvement from the 31% registered at year-end 2022. ATTOM calls this housing data a “mixed…

Applications Up For Fourth Week

Mortgage applications increased for a fourth week, inching up as home price indicators show decelerating growth. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey says the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – rose by 2.9%, close to last week’s 3% increase. Adjusted purchase applications increased by 2%, while the unadjusted index was up 2% from the week before and 35% lower YOY.  Mortgage rates fell slightly, with the average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans down from 6.48% to 6.45%. This is the lowest level in more than a month. “While the 30-year fixed rate remained 1.65 percentage points higher than a year ago, homebuyers responded, leading to a fourth straight increase in purchase applications,”…

Former Hotspots Saw Home Price Deceleration In January

Former homebuyer hotspots in the U.S. saw home prices fall in January as the market corrects. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index saw home prices decelerate for another month, posting a 3.8% annual gain in January, down from 5.6% in the previous month. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, said the data marked the seventh straight month of YOY decreases. West Coast hubs that saw huge migration during the pandemic saw their gains go negative YOY in January. The West overall saw prices decline by 1.5%. San Francisco clocked in a 7.6% drop YOY, the biggest by far, followed by Seattle with a 5.1% decrease. Southern cities continued to see gains, with Miami, Tampa, and…

Sun Belt Cities See Surge In Rent Costs

Rents have been rising nationwide, squeezing Americans hoping to save for a down payment or to reduce debt. But a new analysis from the Bank of America Institute found that renters in the Sun Belt have felt the worst of it. Median rent payment growth in Sun Belt cities like Phoenix and Tampa outpaced Western and Northeastern cities by more than 20 percentage points in February, leaders at the Institute said. Overall, Bank of America customers saw their rents increase by 8% YOY in February. Growth changed dramatically by geography. Phoenix and Tampa both saw rent costs increase by 26% and 23% YoY respectively in February. These are both record highs. Cities like Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Boston saw smaller…

Rates Down As Buyers Hit The Spring Market

Homebuyers lucked out again this week as rates continued sliding, falling by nearly twenty basis points. Officials at Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate averaged 6.42%, down from 6.60% the week prior. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.42%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped from 5.90% to 5.68%. A year ago, it averaged 3.63%. “Mortgage rates continued to slide down as financial market concerns came to the fore over the last two weeks,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “However, on the homebuyer front, the news is more positive with improved purchase demand and stabilizing home prices. If mortgage rates continue to slide over the next few weeks, look for a…

New Home Sales Rose In February As Existing Inventory Shrinks

New home sales increased slightly month-over-month in February but remain down significantly from last year, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales rose by 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000, slightly less than economists’ expectations of 650,000. Bloomberg call this an “unexpected” rise after a downward revision in January, saying it may herald some stability after a wild year. Sales remain down 19% YOY. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 436,000, representing a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate. Newly built homes are gaining popularity as the supply of existing homes continues to cause trouble. Zillow says homebuyers are growing…

Delinquencies Rose Again In February, But Prepayment Activity Is Up

Delinquencies across the nation rose in February to 3.45% as economic pressures squeeze Americans, but remain down from last year, Black Knight reported. Black Knight’s First Look at February 2023 data found that delinquent loans that are only a single payment behind overwhelmingly accounted for the increase. The 36,000 delinquency rise was driven by a 65,000 increase in first-time missed payments. Delinquencies of 60 and 90 days both fell, down by 12,000 (-4%) and 17,000 (-3%) respectively. Nearly all fifty states saw their serious delinquencies improve. On the other end, foreclosure starts also improved, breaking a streak of increases with a 9% dip. Starts remain almost 20% below pre-pandemic levels. Active foreclosure inventory increased slightly and is up 15% from…

Mortgage Applications Rise Again, But Will It Last?

Mortgage applications increased for a third week as buyers take advantage of retreating rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey shows the adjusted Market Composite Index – a measure of mortgage loan application volume – rose by 3%. Mortgage rates fell for a second week as a wobbly banking sector pushed treasury yields down. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans fell from 6.71% to 6.48%. This is its lowest level in a month. “Both purchase and refinance applications increased for the third week in a row as borrowers took the opportunity to act, even though overall application volume remains at relatively low levels,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Adjusted purchase applications increased by…